Bitcoin’s path higher just got harder in the short term, but the setup further out may be improving, according to a new report.
In a Friday note, European asset manager CoinShares’ Head of Research, James Butterfill, said firmer-than-expected core inflation raises the odds of tighter Fed policy and could cap bitcoin below $80,000 for now.
But the longer-term case, he argued, rests on the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback programme failing to bring down long-end yields — a failure that could ultimately feed the debasement narrative that has supported both bitcoin and gold.
“The result is therefore a somewhat unusual policy mix for Bitcoin,” the report read. “Today’s CPI data is negative at the margin, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy and potentially limiting the immediate upside.
“But the apparent failure of the Treasury’s current buying programme increases the likelihood of much more substantial intervention further ahead.”
It continued: “If that happens, it could become one of the more powerful medium-term catalysts for Bitcoin.”
Data on Friday revealed that the consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from a month earlier — higher than expected.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders think there is a 85% chance interest rates will be higher after the Federal Reserve meets next week. Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low interest rate environment.
But the U.S. Treasury’s expanded bond buyback programme has so far failed to materially suppress long-term yields.
If yields stay stubbornly high, Butterfill said, pressure will build on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to escalate to a much larger, “bazooka-style” buying programme aimed at forcing borrowing costs down.
Bitcoin in August had one of its best runs in years after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks.
The announcement and subsequent price surge has led some to say the much talked-about debasement trade is back. The so-called debasement trade is when investors buy an asset as a way to hedge against a currency losing value.
Bitcoin and gold have both benefited as part of the trade as the dollar weakens.
Bitcoin’s price rose on Friday — despite data revealing that U.S. inflation had risen.
The biggest cryptocurrency by market cap was recently trading for close to $78,749 after jumping 2% over a 24-hour period. At one point on Friday morning in New York, bitcoin rose as high as $79,607.
Bitcoin’s price spike came after news dropped that U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from a month earlier, which was higher than expected.
Inflation in the U.S. has been difficult to tame due to the war with Iran, which has lifted oil prices, in turn raising the costs of food, gasoline and other goods.
Higher inflation typically means the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which in turn could stop bitcoin’s price climbing higher.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders think there is a 85% chance interest rates will be higher by next week. The Federal Reserve will meet next week and reveal what it will do with borrowing costs.
Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low interest rate environment because it means people can buy more of the cryptocurrency with increased liquidity.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who took the helm in January, last month gave his first speech as head of the U.S. central bank and said he had “more work to do” to fight inflation.
The U.S. is currently in the grips of an affordability crisis and rising oil prices are a hot topic ahead of the midterm elections.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reassured voters that prices will get under control and repeatedly put pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates.
Bitcoin in August had its biggest run in years following positive regulatory news and an announcement from the U.S. Treasury.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, helping non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold. The cryptocurrency then benefited from President Trump urging lawmakers to get key crypto legislation, the Clarity Act, over the line.
Bitcoin slid Friday after a better-than-expected labor report showed that the U.S. job market accelerated in August.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently trading for close to $79,764 after dropping as low as $78,706 earlier in the morning in New York. It’s currently down over 1% over a 24-hour period. On Thursday, the coin soared above $82,000.
The Federal Reserve is typically more likely to raise interest rates when the labor market is strong, because more people employed means more spending, and more spending can push inflation up.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh last week gave his first major speech as head of the U.S. central bank and said he had “more work to do” to fight inflation. Bitcoin has typically done well in a low-interest rate environment.
Traders currently view a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the upcoming September 15–16 policy meeting as roughly a 50% to 60% probability.
But U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday demanded the Federal Reserve slash interest rates.
Writing on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said: “Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago!”
He added: “We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like ‘the old days.'”
Bitcoin has decoupled from stocks recently as investors have renewed concerns around dollar debasement.
The cryptocurrency started surging last month, after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The coin had its best run in three years and third best August ever.
The much-talked about debasement trade is back in the spotlight, and bitcoin has been trading in lockstep with gold, according to analysts. The so-called debasement trade is when investors buy an asset as a way to hedge against a currency losing value.
News dropped last month that U.S. public debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time too. Excessive debt also undermines confidence in the dollar, making assets like bitcoin and gold attractive.
Bitcoin may be rallying but that doesn’t mean the bear market is over. Not yet, anyway.
A new report from asset manager Fidelity said that while bitcoin was behaving like it did in previous cycles, it could still hit a bottom in November.
Bitcoin started rallying in mid-August after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The asset’s price recently stood at close to $81,639, up nearly 30% over a 30-day period.
Some have since argued that bitcoin is out of its bear market. The coin touched a record high in October last year, hitting $126,080.
“Given bitcoin’s recent performance, the bottom could already have occurred in July,” Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, wrote.
“It could also drop again to make another new low in November or later,” he continued, adding that bitcoin cycles have historically not been precisely four years long, so they “aren’t reliable for timing the market.”
Throughout most of June and July, bitcoin’s volatility was particularly muted, and the coin traded below $65,000.
But that all changed in August after the Treasury Department’s announcement, which has since brought the so-called debasement trade back in the picture again.
To get an idea of where bitcoin moves next, Kuiper argued that investors should pay attention to what happens with the crypto Clarity Act. Proponents argue it could provide “greater regulatory certainty and support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem,” he wrote.
President Donald Trump in August urged lawmakers to get the long-awaited crypto market structure bill over the line, helping spur bitcoin’s run. The president called the draft “very, very powerful” after meeting with crypto industry bigwigs at the White House.
The digital asset industry has long called for clear rules on how regulators should treat bitcoin, stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies.
Over the past 30 days, the bitcoin price has surged over 23% following both positive regulatory news and announcements from the U.S. Treasury Department regarding debt buybacks.
But other major crypto company stocks rose quicker. Bitcoin treasury Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) was trading more than 13% higher on Thursday. The company on Monday resumed bitcoin buys after a 10-week pause to reshuffle its cash balance sheet.
America’s biggest crypto exchange, Coinbase, also saw its stock shoot up. Nasdaq-listed COIN was trading 11% higher in the same time period.
Elsewhere, bitcoin mining companies had a boost too. Top public companies in the space — including the Nasdaq-listed HIVE Digital, MARA, and CleanSpark — all were up on Thursday.
HIVE Digital led the pack with a 13% jump, while MARA Holdings was up more than 10% on the day.
Clean energy bitcoin miner CleanSpark jumped by 9%; IREN, which is slowly phasing out its mining operations to focus on AI-compute, was up by 4%.
Bitcoin had a phenomenal run in August — its third best such month in its history — after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases.
The announcement, aimed to tame surging yields not seen in nearly 20 years, hurt the dollar but has benefited non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold.
Soon after, President Donald Trump urged lawmakers to get the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act over the line — digital asset legislation the industry has long called for.
Investors rushed back into bitcoin exchange-traded funds as a result, throwing over $2.8 billion at the vehicles — the most since October, when the coin hit a new all-time high.
Bitcoin had spent a lot of the year trading below $80,000 per coin, with June and July mostly below $65,000. The coin hit a new record of $126,080 in October. It is now nearly 40% below that number.
XRP’s exchange reserves are hitting levels not seen since early 2024, but the short-term market is telling a very different story.
Something interesting is happening with XRP.
While traders are focused on the recent price pullback, Binance’s XRP reserves have been quietly shrinking.
The monthly average of XRP held on Binance has fallen from roughly 3.1 billion XRP in November 2025 to 2.6 billion XRP today.
That’s a decline of approximately 500 million XRP.
Even more interesting: Binance’s average XRP reserves are now at levels last seen around February 2024.
And this happened while XRP went through a brutal correction.
From its peak near $3.66, XRP has fallen to around $1.30–$1.35, putting the token roughly 63% below its high.
So why are XRP reserves falling while the price remains under pressure?
And more importantly, does this actually mean investors are accumulating?
The 500 Million XRP Shift
The simplest way to look at the data is this:
Less XRP is sitting on Binance than it was a year ago.
That matters because exchange balances represent XRP that is readily available for trading.
When coins move away from exchanges, one possible explanation is that investors are transferring them into private wallets for longer-term holding.
But there is an important distinction:
Exchange outflows do not automatically equal accumulation.
Coins can move for several reasons, so the reserve decline should be treated as a potentially bullish signal rather than definitive proof that investors are buying.
Still, the size and persistence of the decline make it difficult to ignore.
There are three potential explanations worth watching.
1. Long-Term Holders Could Be Moving XRP Into Self-Custody
The first possibility is straightforward: some XRP investors may simply be choosing to hold their coins away from exchanges.
If investors have a longer-term outlook, there is less reason to keep their XRP on a trading platform.
The continued decline in Binance reserves — even during a major price drawdown — makes this possibility particularly interesting.
It suggests that at least some market participants aren’t responding to falling prices by moving more XRP onto exchanges.
2. XRP ETFs May Be Absorbing Market Supply
The second possibility is the emergence of spot XRP ETFs, which launched around November–December 2025.
ETF demand can require XRP exposure to be acquired and held through custody arrangements.
If some of that demand is being sourced through the market, it could contribute to declining exchange balances.
However, the available reserve data cannot tell us exactly how much of the 500 million XRP decline is connected to ETFs.
So this should be viewed as a possible driver, not a confirmed explanation.
3. Binance Could Simply Be Rebalancing
The third possibility is less exciting but still important.
Binance can move XRP between wallets as it manages liquidity and responds to customer demand.
Because we’re looking at a monthly-average metric rather than individual wallet movements, operational transfers are unlikely to explain the entire long-term decline on their own.
But they remain part of the equation.
Then Came the Liquidations
Here’s where the story gets interesting.
While XRP’s exchange reserves continue to decline, short-term traders are getting hit.
Yet XRP was still up 21.93% over 30 days, showing just how strong the August rebound had been before the recent pullback.
Then leverage started getting flushed.
Over the previous 24 hours, XRP recorded approximately $11.21 million in liquidations.
Of that total:
Longs: $10.63M Shorts: $583K
That’s a huge imbalance.
The market wasn’t primarily liquidating traders betting on XRP falling.
It was liquidating traders betting on XRP going higher.
This Is Where the Timeframes Matter
At first glance, the two signals appear contradictory.
One says XRP supply on Binance is shrinking.
The other says XRP traders are being forced out of bullish positions.
But they’re actually measuring two very different things.
Exchange reserves measure supply behavior over a longer timeframe.
Liquidations measure leveraged positioning over a much shorter timeframe.
That’s why XRP can simultaneously have a potentially constructive supply trend and a bearish short-term price structure.
A trader who bought XRP with leverage during the August rally doesn’t necessarily care that Binance reserves have fallen over the past year.
If XRP falls far enough, their position gets liquidated anyway.
And once those leveraged positions are forced to close, the resulting selling can push the price even lower.
So, Is This Bullish for XRP?
Potentially — but not necessarily immediately.
The 500 million XRP decline is the more interesting signal for investors with a multi-month horizon.
If XRP continues leaving exchanges while price stabilizes, it would strengthen the argument that investors are moving coins toward longer-term custody.
But if exchange reserves begin rising again alongside renewed selling pressure, the accumulation thesis becomes much weaker.
For now, the data tells a more nuanced story.
XRP’s long-term supply picture is becoming tighter, while its short-term market structure remains vulnerable.
That’s an important distinction.
The falling Binance reserves don’t guarantee a price breakout.
And the recent liquidations don’t necessarily invalidate the longer-term supply trend.
They simply show that XRP’s short-term price is still being driven heavily by leverage and market sentiment.
For investors, that’s probably the most important takeaway.
The 500 million XRP leaving Binance is a signal worth watching. The liquidation cascade is a reminder not to confuse a long-term accumulation trend with an immediate price catalyst.
Sometimes the most bullish-looking on-chain data and the ugliest short-term price action can exist at the same time.
Bitcoin slid on Tuesday after investors went into “risk-off” mode following escalating attacks between the U.S. and Iran.
The largest cryptocurrency had initially shrugged off President Donald Trump’s threats to the Middle Eastern nation, as well as the first strikes.
But things heated up on Tuesday, and bitcoin’s price slid. It was recently down more than 2% on the day, trading for $77,363. The coin had pushed past as high as nearly $81,282 on Friday.
The Tuesday attacks from the U.S. were because Iran tried to put mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and also because of an attack on an American military base in Jordan, according to President Trump.
U.S. Central Command said on X that Iran had also attacked commercial ships.
Today at 12 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran. The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region.
“The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region,” the post read.
Iran responded with a “decisive operation” against U.S. military bases, according to Iranian media. Oil surged on the news.
Bitcoin’s price has been sensitive to geopolitical tensions this year — especially after Iran and Israel attacked Iran. The cryptocurrency has typically faced downward pressure on news of war, only to then rally when Trump raised hopes of a ceasefire.
Despite Bitcoin’s price being relatively muted, in recent months, it has made more wild swings since mid-August.
Bitcoin’s immediate reaction to rising oil prices is to drop: more expensive energy means higher inflation, and higher inflation typically means the U.S. central bank will postpone rate cuts, which can restrict the liquidity that bitcoin needs to gain momentum.
The Federal Reserve’s chair, Kevin Warsh, last week gave his first major speech as leader of the central bank and said that inflation in the world’s largest economy had not come down enough.
Traders are now no longer pricing in an interest rate cut this year, instead expecting a hike. Bitcoin has typically performed well in the past in low interest rate environments.
Still, the coin had one of its best runs in August after the U.S. Treasury said it would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations, in response to surging borrowing costs.
The announcement hurt the dollar but non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold have benefited.
Bitcoin is known for its summer slumps. But August was different.
In fact, the leading cryptocurrency had its third best August ever.
As highlighted on Tuesday by Bitwise’s European Head of Research, André Dragosch, bitcoin delivered returns of 25% last month.
“No ‘summer lull’ so far,” Dragosch wrote on X, highlighting that the only better Augusts the coin has had were in 2017 when it gave investors returns of nearly 66%, and 2013, with close to 31%.
OFFICIAL: August 2026 is in the books and it's been the 3rd best August in bitcoin's history.
August 2017: +65.6% August 2013: +30.7% August 2026: +25.0%
Multiple analyses point to the months of June-September showing weaker average returns than the rest of the year.
Throughout most of June and July, bitcoin’s volatility was particularly muted, and the coin traded below $65,000.
But that changed in mid-August after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases due to fixed income markets under pressure and yields surging to levels not seen in nearly 20 years.
Lower long-term yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold, and generally support risk-on sentiment.
Investors flooded into bitcoin as a result.
Positive news soon followed, with President Donald Trump urging lawmakers to get the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act over the line. The digital asset industry has long called for clear rules on how regulators should treat bitcoin, stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies.
Despite a delay in a vote on the legislation, Trump called the draft “very powerful.” The president made the comments after having met with crypto industry bigwigs and CEOs.
Investors also rushed back into ETFs in August, throwing over $2.8 billion at the vehicles — the most since October, when the coin hit a new all-time high.
Bitcoin in August had its best run in three years — and is up nearly over 20% over the past month.
The asset reached as high as $81,281 last week before sliding again on Friday.
Bitcoin’s price recently stood at $76,883, nearly down 3% over a 24-hour period.
Solana has broken out of a 10-month downtrend after a strong August rally, with SOL reclaiming the $100 level and finishing the month up roughly 46%.
CoinGecko market data showed SOL recovering sharply through August, reversing a long stretch of weakness and putting momentum back on the side of bulls. The move makes Solana one of the stronger large-cap assets in the latest market rotation.
Still, this is a market structure story, not a guaranteed continuation call.
A 46% monthly rally is meaningful, but it does not prove the next leg higher is automatic. Solana now needs follow-through, stable liquidity, and continued ecosystem strength to hold the breakout.
For more details, visit the official Coingecko platform.
TL;DR
SOL reclaimed the $100 level after a 46% August rally.
The move broke a 10-month downtrend.
The breakout needs confirmation before traders treat it as a durable trend shift.
Why The Downtrend Break Matters
Long downtrends shape trader psychology.
When an asset trends lower for months, rallies often get sold. Traders become cautious, liquidity thins, and investors wait for evidence that momentum has changed. Breaking that structure can shift sentiment quickly.
Solana’s August move does that.
Reclaiming $100 gives the market a clean psychological level. Breaking the downtrend gives technical traders a reason to re-evaluate. A strong monthly performance gives momentum funds and retail traders another reason to pay attention.
That combination can be powerful.
Solana Has More Than One Catalyst
Solana’s rally is not happening in a vacuum.
The network has seen renewed attention around ETF access, mobile ecosystem activity, DeFi usage, governance debates, and high-throughput applications. Traders may also be rotating into assets that lagged earlier in the cycle but still have strong communities and liquidity.
SOL benefits from that setup.
It remains one of the few non-Bitcoin, non-Ethereum assets with enough liquidity, brand strength, developer activity, and exchange support to attract large flows during a risk-on move.
That helps explain why it can move quickly when sentiment turns.
Reclaiming $100 Is Symbolic
Round levels matter.
For Solana, $100 is not just a number. It is a sentiment marker. Holding above it can make the asset feel stronger, especially after a long downtrend. Falling back below it could make the breakout look less convincing.
That is why the next few sessions matter.
Traders will watch whether SOL builds support above $100 or treats the level as a temporary stop during a volatility spike.
Avoiding The Price Prediction Trap
A breakout does not guarantee a target.
Solana has moved strongly, but the market can still reverse. Broader crypto weakness, Bitcoin volatility, ETF flow changes, macro stress, or network-specific issues could all pressure the asset.
The responsible read is that SOL has improved its technical position.
That is different from promising a specific next price level.
What The Market Watches Next
The next signals are volume, ETF flows, on-chain activity, and whether Solana’s ecosystem keeps producing real usage.
If spot demand continues and network metrics support the move, the downtrend break may become more durable. If the rally is mostly momentum-driven, traders may become cautious once volatility cools.
For now, Solana has done something important.
It broke a long downtrend, reclaimed $100, and returned to the center of the large-cap altcoin conversation.
This article is based on public Solana market data from CoinGecko.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
This report is based on information released by Coingecko. at Coingecko
Bitcoin on Monday shrugged off tensions in the Middle East, barely moving despite U.S. President Donald Trump vowing to hit Iran hard.
The price of the biggest cryptocurrency recently stood at $79,076, unmoved over a 24-hour period. The coin also hasn’t budged from where it stood seven days ago.
Geopolitical strife has this year hurt Bitcoin’s price, with the cryptocurrency typically facing downward pressure on news of war and rallied in hopes of a ceasefire.
When the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran in February, the coin nosedived, and had been shaky on news of war in March and April.
But in recent months, Bitcoin’s volatility has been muted, according to analysts, and Monday was no different: President Trump promised to hit Iran again but the asset didn’t flinch.
“We’re going to hit them hard,” President Trump was quoted telling a Fox News reporter on Monday. The U.S. and Iran started strikes again on Sunday — the first in over one month.
Bitcoin started a phenomenal run two weeks ago — its best in three years — and is up nearly 30% over the past month.
Its price started surging after the U.S. Treasury would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations. The announcement hurt the dollar but non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold have benefited.
Positive regulatory news has also helped bitcoin this month: President Donald Trump this month said that the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act was a “very, very powerful” piece of legislation, and urged lawmakers to get it over the line.
The Clarity Act aims to establish a framework for distinguishing between digital assets that are securities, commodities or payment stablecoins — legislation that the crypto industry has long called for.
JUST IN: Crypto ETFs attracted $3.2 billion in inflows last week, "their largest weekly intake since October 2025", The Kobeissi Letter reports.
BlackRock's IBIT led with $928 million last week, adding to their $1.3 billion from the prior week, and marking the biggest 2-week… pic.twitter.com/ROC9tYPMGN
Investors have piled back into exchange-traded funds this month, too, which has also helped bitcoin’s price. From August 17 to 27, investors threw over $2.8 billion at the vehicles — the most since October.
Bitcoin reached as high as $81,281 last week before sliding again on Friday.
A brutal three-month slide vanished in seven trading days. Here’s what actually moved the market — and whether the rally has legs.
Bitcoin Just Erased 3 Months of Losses in One Week — Here’s Why
If you looked away from the Bitcoin price chart for a week, you missed one of the sharpest reversals of the year.
Bitcoin spent the better part of the summer grinding lower, bleeding value week after week, dragging investor sentiment down with it. Then, in the span of roughly seven days, it didn’t just stabilize — it erased three months of losses and pushed toward $80,000, briefly touching highs near $81,000 before pulling back.
That’s not a bounce. That’s a full-blown reversal. And for anyone trading or investing in crypto right now, understanding why this happened matters a lot more than just watching the number go up.
This is what’s actually driving the Bitcoin price surge — the ETF flows, the macro shifts, the derivatives mechanics, and the political developments all colliding at once. And just as importantly: what the risks look like from here.
The Numbers: How Fast This Move Happened
Let’s start with the scale of the move, because it’s genuinely rare.
Over the trailing month, Bitcoin posted gains of roughly 20%. Over just the past week, that number climbed past 22%. Bitcoin went from trading in the mid-$60,000s to briefly crossing $80,000, marking its highest level in over three months.
To put that in perspective: this single-week move wiped out essentially all of the losses Bitcoin had accumulated since earlier in the summer. Traders who were underwater a week ago are now looking at flat-to-positive positions. That kind of velocity is what turns a routine price update into market-wide news — and it’s exactly the kind of move that separates a healthy bull run from a fragile, overheated one.
Ethereum moved in sympathy too, climbing alongside Bitcoin, though with less dramatic weekly percentage gains. Daily trading turnover across the crypto market has also spiked, with tens of billions of dollars changing hands in a single day — a sign that this isn’t a quiet, low-volume drift higher. Real capital is moving.
So what’s behind it? There isn’t one single cause. There are four forces that converged at almost exactly the same time:
1. Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Back
The single biggest structural driver behind this rally is renewed demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Since these ETFs launched, they’ve functioned as a direct pipeline between traditional finance and Bitcoin — every dollar that flows into one of these funds effectively becomes buy pressure on the underlying asset. When ETF demand dries up, Bitcoin tends to drift or fall. When it comes roaring back, price tends to follow almost immediately.
That’s exactly what happened here. After a stretch of muted or negative flows earlier in the summer, institutional and retail money started pouring back into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This isn’t speculative message-board money — it’s the kind of capital that moves through brokerage accounts, retirement funds, and institutional allocators. When that money re-enters at scale, it tends to create durable price support rather than a one-day spike.
Why this matters for traders: ETF flow data is now one of the most reliable leading indicators for Bitcoin price direction. If you’re trying to gauge whether this rally has more room to run, daily ETF inflow/outflow data is arguably more useful than any single technical indicator.
2. The Fed Just Became Bitcoin’s Best Friend
Here’s the part a lot of crypto-only commentary misses: this rally isn’t really a “crypto story.” It’s a macro story.
Softer-than-expected inflation data and weaker payroll numbers have shifted market expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of rate cuts, and that shift has rippled across every risk asset — stocks, gold, and crypto alike. As one industry analyst put it, this move has more to do with softening economic data undermining the case for continued tightening than anything crypto-specific.
Lower expected interest rates typically push investors toward higher-risk, higher-reward assets, because the “safe” alternative (holding cash or short-term bonds) becomes relatively less attractive. Bitcoin, despite its maturation over the past few years, is still very much treated as a risk-on asset by the broader market — it tends to rally when the macro backdrop turns favorable for stocks and growth assets, and sell off when it doesn’t.
Adding fuel to this fire: the U.S. Treasury also announced it would significantly expand its long-term bond buyback program. That move pushed long-term Treasury yields lower, which further supported the “flight toward risk assets” narrative playing out across markets this month.
Why this matters for traders: If you’re only watching crypto-specific news to trade Bitcoin, you’re missing half the picture. Fed policy expectations, inflation prints, and bond yields are now directly correlated with Bitcoin price action — and that correlation has only strengthened.
3. Short Sellers Got Squeezed
The third driver is more technical, but it explains why the move was so fast.
As Bitcoin started climbing, traders who had bet against the price — holding short positions in derivatives markets — were forced to buy back Bitcoin to close out those losing bets. This is known as short covering, and it can create a feedback loop: rising prices force shorts to buy, and that buying pushes prices even higher, which forces more shorts to cover.
Data from derivatives markets backs this up. Funding rates — the periodic payments traders make to hold leveraged positions — have stayed positive across the vast majority of recent trading periods, and open interest (the total value of outstanding derivative contracts) has climbed well above its 30-day average. That combination is a classic signature of a rally that’s being amplified by leverage and positioning, not just organic spot buying.
Why this matters for traders: Short-covering rallies can move faster and further than fundamentals alone would justify — but they can also reverse sharply once the squeeze runs its course. Elevated open interest is a double-edged sword: it can fuel further upside, but it also raises liquidation risk if sentiment flips.
4. Regulatory Optimism Is Finally Real
The fourth piece is political, and it’s been building for months.
There’s growing optimism that comprehensive crypto legislation — specifically a bill that would clarify whether digital assets are regulated as securities or commodities — will eventually pass. That kind of regulatory clarity has been one of the crypto industry’s biggest asks for years, because it directly affects how institutions, exchanges, and asset managers are allowed to operate.
Momentum picked up after a White House meeting between the administration and representatives from major crypto platforms, reportedly signaling stronger political support for moving this legislation forward. While the bill remains stalled and faces a procedural vote later this year, markets tend to price in probability, not certainty — and rising odds of a clearer regulatory framework are enough to move sentiment even before any law is actually signed.
Why this matters for traders: Regulatory headlines are becoming as market-moving as macro data for crypto assets. Legislative progress (or setbacks) on this bill is worth tracking as closely as any earnings report or Fed meeting.
The Case for Caution
Here’s where a lot of rally coverage stops — but shouldn’t.
Every one of the drivers above comes with a flip side, and serious traders should be watching both.
Resistance is real: Bitcoin is running into resistance in the $79,500–$80,000 zone. Multiple failed attempts to clear that level cleanly could signal exhaustion rather than a breakout.
Momentum indicators are stretched: RSI (relative strength index) readings are elevated, which historically increases the odds of a near-term pullback or consolidation phase.
Whales are selling into strength: On-chain data shows continued distribution from large Bitcoin holders even as price climbs — a pattern worth watching, since large holders often have better information or timing than retail traders.
Leverage cuts both ways: The same elevated open interest that fueled the short squeeze also raises the risk of a sharp move down if long positions get liquidated in a reversal.
ETF flows can reverse quickly: Just as renewed inflows sparked this rally, a slowdown or reversal in ETF demand could remove the primary tailwind just as fast.
None of this means the rally is fake or that a crash is imminent. It means this move is being driven by a mix of genuine structural demand (ETFs, macro shifts) and more fragile, sentiment-driven mechanics (short covering, leverage). Those two forces can coexist — but they don’t always fail or succeed together.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin suddenly surge after months of losses?
A combination of renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, softer U.S. economic data raising expectations of Fed rate cuts, short sellers being forced to buy back positions, and growing optimism around crypto regulation all hit at nearly the same time.
Is this Bitcoin rally driven by crypto-specific news or the broader market?
Mostly the broader market. Analysts widely describe this as a macro-driven move tied to interest rate expectations and Treasury policy, rather than a crypto-specific catalyst.
What price level is Bitcoin facing resistance at right now?
Bitcoin has run into resistance in the $79,500 to $80,000 range, after briefly touching highs near $81,000.
Are institutional investors buying or selling into this rally?
It’s mixed. Spot ETF inflows suggest institutional and retail capital is flowing in through regulated products, while on-chain data shows some large individual holders (“whales”) continuing to sell into the strength.
Should I buy Bitcoin during this rally?
That depends entirely on your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio strategy. This article is for informational purposes only and isn’t financial advice — Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, and it’s worth doing your own research or speaking with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin didn’t just have a good week — it had one of its sharpest reversals in months, driven by a genuinely rare alignment of ETF demand, macro tailwinds, derivatives mechanics, and regulatory optimism. That’s worth paying attention to, regardless of which direction you think the market goes from here.
But fast moves cut both ways. The same leverage and short covering that accelerated this rally can accelerate a pullback just as quickly if sentiment shifts. The smartest traders right now aren’t just asking “how high can this go” — they’re watching ETF flow data, funding rates, and that $80,000 resistance zone just as closely as the price itself.
If you found this breakdown useful, follow for more data-driven crypto market analysis — and drop a comment with where you think Bitcoin heads next.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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Bitcoin dropped, then popped after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first major speech as head of the U.S. central bank and said he had “more work to do” to fight inflation.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently trading for $79,474 after dropping as low as $78,630 before quickly rising again.
Bitcoin has typically done well in a low interest rate environment but the Federal Reserve has been reluctant to lower borrowing costs due to sticky inflation in the world’s biggest economy.
“But on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning,” Warsh said after talking about employment.
He added: “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”
Bitcoin has in the past dropped on news that the Federal Reserve thinks inflation is too high because it means less chance of a rate cut. Following Warsh’s speech, traders priced in a 50% chance of rate hike in September.
But Bitcoin has appeared to — at least for now — shrug off the speech.
Bitcoin’s started surging last week after the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks.
The news sent yields down lower, and the dollar slid while non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold jumped.
Positive regulatory news also helped the coin: President Donald Trump last week said that the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act was a “very, very powerful” piece of legislation, and urged lawmakers to get it over the line.
The proposed law will establish a framework for distinguishing between digital assets that are securities, commodities or payment stablecoins — legislation that the crypto industry has long called for.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is on Friday holding the annual event at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where central bankers, Federal Reserve officials, policymakers and academics will gather to discuss “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City website, this year’s event will touch on how “recent years have seen a dramatic increase in innovation in financial intermediation and payments,” including new technologies such as “cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.”
Bitcoin again closed in on the $81,000 mark on Thursday before dropping again as its stellar week continued.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently trading for $80,236 after notching as high as $80,793 earlier in the day in New York.
Bitcoin is now up more than 2% over the past day after gaining 10% in a week. The coin’s rise comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote on Friday where he is expected to talk about digital payments — including crypto.
JUST IN: The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is now up to 71, "Greed"
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will hold the annual event at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where central bankers, Federal Reserve officials, policymakers and academics will gather to discuss “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City website, this year’s event will touch on how “recent years have seen a dramatic increase in innovation in financial intermediation and payments,” including new technologies such as “cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.”
It will be Warsh’s first major speech as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh, who has made pro-Bitcoin statements in the past, has been reluctant to lower interest rates; President Donald Trump, who nominated Warsh, has since last year pushed for borrowing costs to come down.
Bitcoin in the past has done well in a low interest rate environment.
Bitcoin’s run started last week when it sustained its biggest run in years following positive regulatory news and an announcement from the U.S. Treasury.
But recent positive regulatory news has helped the coin. While a vote on the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act has been delayed until September, President Donald Trump last week said that the bill was a “very, very powerful” piece of legislation, and urged lawmakers to get it over the line.
The proposed law will establish a framework for distinguishing between digital assets that are securities, commodities or payment stablecoins — legislation that the crypto industry has long called for.
And U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also last week announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks.
The news sent yields down lower; lower long-term yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold, and generally supports risk-on sentiment.
Bitcoin is out of its bear market. But expect a possible pullback.
That’s according to analysts at crypto research firm CryptoQuant, who say the coin is behaving like it has done in the past. CryptoQuant founder, Ki Young Ju, wrote on X Tuesday that the asset had “entered into the early bull phase.”
Ju Pointed to movements bitcoin made in its last cycle before entering a bull market, and said the coin was currently doing the same thing.
JUST IN: Bitcoin is currently having its 3rd best August EVER, currently up 25% this month pic.twitter.com/q45AHHpK4e
CryptoQuant research shows that bitcoin flows to derivative exchanges have started again, confirming that traders have entered “risk-on” mode, which “has marked the start of a new bull cycle” in the past.
And another analyst at the firm, Theophiluspep, wrote that while the coin was entering a bull market, “spot demand, ETF flows, and market momentum have turned decisively bullish, but elevated profit-taking, exchange inflows, and overbought conditions suggest a potential near-term cooldown.”
He added: “This looks increasingly like a genuine regime shift into the early phase of a new bull market, driven more by improving spot demand and institutional ETF buying than by excessive leverage.”
Bitcoin started surging last week. It is currently up 22% over a seven-day period and was recently priced at $78,716. It briefly touched $81,160 on Monday.
Its rise comes after a sluggish June and July when it mostly traded below $65,000.
U.S. investors last week reversed course and bought up shares in the bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which had their best week since October — the same time bitcoin notched its record of $126,080.
Data from Farside Investors shows that the funds — managed by the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Morgan Stanley — received $1.9 billion in new cash.
The change in sentiment comes after the Treasury Department’s announcement last week to at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks.
Since the Treasury made the announcement, yields have gone down, while bitcoin and gold have shot up. The dollar last week was trading at a three-month low and on track for its worst week of August. Bitcoin, on the other hand, had its best week since 2023.
Positive regulatory news coming out of the White House also helped: President Donald Trump held a meeting with crypto executives earlier last week, and urged lawmakers to get the Clarity Act over the line.
Bitcoin is no longer oversold but there’s still time to buy, according to Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton.
Speaking on Tuesday to CNBC, the financial research firm’s managing partner said that Bitcoin cleared its 200-day moving average back in May, meaning that a potential breakout could be coming.
Bitcoin started rallying last week on news that the Treasury would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations. It’s up over 22% over a seven-day period, and was recently trading for $78,915. The coin traded above $81,000 on Monday.
JUST IN: Fairlead Strategies founder tells CNBC Bitcoin is "not over bought yet, so that's the good thing."
"We're looking for more upside from gold…maybe it won't be quite as long lived as what we expect from Bitcoin" pic.twitter.com/lXly8WRO3Y
“It’s not overbought yet, so that’s the good thing,” said Stockton.
“Whenever you see a breakout above a resistance level, it’s always better to have that immediate follow-through to essentially confirm the breakout.”
Bitcoin was trading under $65,000 for most of June and July and experiencing its lowest volatility in its 17-year history.
Its recent rally has some analysts saying that the so-called debasement trade could be hot again. The debasement trade is when investors buy assets when they think fiat money is losing value.
And losing value it is: The dollar slid following the Treasury’s announcement last week. Gold and bitcoin have since rallied.
Bitcoiners have long argued that the biggest cryptocurrency can work as a hedge against government printing, along with precious metals.
U.S. investors last week piled back into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds; the investment vehicles had their best week since October, with nearly $2 billion in inflows.
Bitcoin’s price was also helped after President Trump last week gathered with crypto executives at the White House and said that getting the Clarity Act over the line would keep the U.S. ahead of China.
Lawmakers were hoping to get a vote on the crypto market structure bill, or Clarity Act, in August. A vote will now go ahead in September. The bill will establish a framework for distinguishing between digital assets that are securities, commodities or payment stablecoins.
Bitcoin soared past $81,000 for the first time since January on Monday before dropping slightly. The recent moves have market observers asking if the debasement trade is back.
The biggest cryptocurrency was recently trading for $79,098 on Tuesday morning in New York after hitting $81,160 the evening before. Over a 24-hour period, the coin now sits unmoved. But zoom out seven days and it has jumped by 23%.
Bitcoin has benefited from news that the Treasury would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations. The announcement last week hurt the dollar but non-yielding assets have benefited.
This has some asking whether 2025’s much talked about debasement trade is back. The strategy — when investors buy an asset as a way to hedge against a currency losing value — has in the past benefited Bitcoin along with precious metals because such assets cannot be endlessly printed.
Analysts frequently touted the trade last year but following Bitcoin’s decline since October, it became less talked about as traders turned their attention to stocks related to artificial intelligence.
Though since the dollar has become increasingly weaker, Bitcoin could be attracting longer-term and “smart money” investors, market observers have said.
U.S. investors last week piled back into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds; the investment vehicles had their best week since October, with nearly $2 billion in inflows.
Bitcoin notched a new record of $126,080 in October before the biggest liquidation event in crypto history hurt its price. It continued to dip in 2026 on negative macroeconomic headwinds and fears that the Federal Reserve would not lower interest rates.
Still, it has become increasingly less volatile and so far has suffered from its shallowest bear market, according to analysts.
Bitcoin’s price surged further on Monday, flirting with $80,000 after U.S. exchange-traded funds had their best week since October.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently trading more than 2% higher over a 24-hour period after flying past $79,155. It earlier on Monday morning in New York reached as high as $79,954.
Over the past week, the coin has risen 25%. Its rise comes after a sluggish June and July when it mostly traded below $65,000.
Last week, U.S. investors reversed course and bought up shares in the Bitcoin ETFs, which had their best week since October, when bitcoin notched its record of $126,080. Data from Farside Investors shows that the funds — managed by the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Morgan Stanley — received $1.9 billion in new cash.
“This is one of the benefits of a commodity in a constant state of supply shock,” Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on X on Monday.
Bitcoin ETFs took just about $2b last week- their best week since the Good Ol Days of Oct 2025 as price went from $64k to $77k in a New York minute (that counts as God candle yeah?). Anyway, this is one of the benefits of a commodity in a constant state of supply shock. pic.twitter.com/B63AUp3G8k
The surge in interest in bitcoin’s was triggered by the Treasury Department’s announcement last week to at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks.
Since the Treasury made the announcement, yields have gone down, while bitcoin and gold have shot up. The dollar last week was trading at a three-month low and on track for its worst week of August. Bitcoin, on the other hand, had its best week since 2023.
Positive regulatory news coming out of the White House also helped: President Donald Trump held a meeting with crypto executives earlier last week, and urged lawmakers to get the Clarity Act over the line.
Lawmakers will vote on the long-awaited crypto legislation, which the digital asset industry has long called for, in September. The proposed law will establish a framework for distinguishing between digital assets that are securities, commodities or payment stablecoins.
Bitcoin notched an all-time high in October but was hurt later that month after the biggest liquidation event in crypto history saw over $19 billion in bets closed. The coin continued its plunge after the Federal Reserve made it clear it was in no hurry to lower interest rates and investors increasingly threw money at artificial intelligence-related stocks.
Bitcoin continued its rise on Friday, having its best week since 2023 as over $1 billion in shortsellers’ positions got ruined and exchange-traded funds received billions in new cash.
The leading cryptocurrency on Friday was recently trading 23% higher over a seven-day period after flying past $77,542. It earlier in the day reached as high as $79,319.
Bitcoin’s rise comes after the American investors fast piled into exchange-traded funds, with the vehicles so far this week taking in over $1.6 billion, according to Farside Investors data.
CNBC analysts said that the coin’s rise is its best performance since 2023 and was triggered by the Treasury Department’s Wednesday announcement to at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks.
The announcement has helped send yields down lower, while assets like bitcoin and gold have shot up. The dollar is trading at a three-month low and on track for its worst week of August.
Why? Because lower long-term yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, and generally supports risk-on sentiment.
Those betting on the price of the cryptocurrency to fall also got hit hard: Data from Coinglass shows that over $1 billion in shorts positions were closed.
In a note Friday, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said that Thursday was the largest liquidation of Bitcoin shorts ever when $1.1 billion in bets were closed.
Bitcoin’s volatility had dropped significantly over June and July and had mostly been trading below $65,000.
Investors have this week frantically bought shares of Bitcoin ETFs, with the funds on Thursday receiving $606.3 million — one of their biggest trading days this year.
Positive regulatory news coming out of the White House is also helping: President Donald Trump held a meeting with crypto executives earlier in the week, and urged lawmakers to get the Clarity Act over the line.
A vote will go ahead on the long-awaited crypto legislation, which the digital asset industry has long called for, in September.
Bitcoin roared past $79,000 Friday, sustaining the biggest run in years following positive regulatory news and an announcement from the U.S. Treasury.
The leading cryptocurrency hit as high as $79,319 before dipping slightly. It was recently priced at $77,584, a more than 7% rise over the past day. Over a seven-day period, the coin has shot up by close to 23%.
Bitcoin had spent most of July and June trading below $65,000. Some analysts had said that the bottom was likely in.
JUST IN: Standard Chartered bank says Bitcoin could surge back to $100,000 this year, ending the "shallowest" bear market so far pic.twitter.com/IpyESe931E
And it may just be in: Writing in a note Friday, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said that a $100,000 price forecast by year-end was too low.
“Once investors remember how quickly prices can accelerate to the topside, and we get past the 6 October date (12 months after the all-time high) an overshoot towards the all-time high (USD126k) before year-end may be possible,” he said.
He added that bitcoin’s bear market so far has been the shallowest on record. Analysts have pointed out that the coin’s volatility has been dampened this year.
Bitcoin notched a record last year of $126,080 but plunged soon after following the biggest liquidation event in the history of crypto. Over $19 billion in leveraged bets were closed, sending shockwaves through the market.
Since then, a number of factors have hurt bitcoin’s price, including the Federal Reserve being reluctant to lower interest rates and geopolitical headwinds such as war in the Middle East.
But recent positive regulatory news has helped the coin. While a vote on the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act has been delayed until September, President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that the bill was a “very, very powerful” piece of legislation, and urged lawmakers to get it over the line.
The proposed law will establish a framework for distinguishing between digital assets that are securities, commodities or payment stablecoins — legislation that the crypto industry has long called for.
And earlier this week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks. The news sent yields down lower; lower long-term yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold, and generally supports risk-on sentiment.
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