The Clarity Act may enter Senate floor consideration before the August recess, but its chances of passing in 2026 are fading as lawmakers remain divided.
Franceβs National Gambling Authority has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, putting the prediction-market platform back under regulatory pressure in one of Europeβs largest markets.
The ANJ said its president issued the network-level blocking request on July 16. The regulator framed Polymarket as an illegal gambling operation and cited concerns including consumer addiction, lack of know-your-customer controls, and the potential manipulation of betting outcomes.
One example mentioned by the regulator involved weather data manipulation, which shows how broad the concern is. Prediction markets do not only cover elections or crypto prices. They can involve real-world outcomes where the line between forecasting, betting, and market influence becomes uncomfortable for regulators.
This is not an EU-wide ban. It is a French order. But it is still a warning shot for the prediction-market sector.
TL;DR
Franceβs ANJ has ordered ISPs to block access to Polymarket.
The regulator classified the platform as an illegal gambling operation.
The action is specific to France, not a blanket European Union ban.
Prediction Markets Are Running Into Old Gambling Rules
Prediction markets have always had a regulatory identity problem.
Supporters describe them as information markets. Users trade on probabilities, and prices can reveal what the crowd believes about future events. That can be useful, especially when markets are liquid and participants have strong incentives to be accurate.
Regulators often see something much simpler: betting.
A user puts money behind an outcome. The outcome resolves. The user wins or loses. If that activity is offered to residents without local authorization, gambling regulators tend to get involved.
That is the tension Polymarket is facing in France.
The platform may be crypto-native, global, and built around market pricing, but the ANJ is treating access through the lens of gambling law and consumer protection.
For prediction markets, that is a difficult problem to escape.
Why The KYC Issue Matters
The ANJβs concern around KYC is important.
Regulators do not only care that people are betting. They care who is betting, how users are onboarded, whether minors can access the service, whether problem gambling protections exist, and whether suspicious activity can be monitored.
Crypto prediction markets can be especially hard for regulators because they often operate across borders and use digital wallets rather than conventional accounts.
That creates a mismatch.
A platform can be accessible from a jurisdiction even if it is not licensed there. Users can reach it through normal internet access. Funds can move through crypto rails. That makes enforcement harder, so regulators sometimes turn to ISP blocking.
Blocking does not necessarily eliminate access completely. Users may use VPNs or other workarounds. But it raises friction and sends a clear message to platforms, payment providers, and local users.
The Manipulation Concern Is Different
The ANJβs reference to possible manipulation of betting outcomes is also worth taking seriously.
In financial markets, manipulation usually means trying to move the price of an asset. In prediction markets, manipulation can mean something stranger: trying to influence the real-world event itself.
That concern depends heavily on the market.
Some outcomes are too large for traders to influence. Others may be more vulnerable. Weather data, niche events, small elections, lower-liquidity markets, or outcomes based on specific data sources can create awkward incentives.
If a market pays out based on an event that someone can influence, regulators may see added consumer and public-interest risks.
That does not mean every prediction market is dangerous. But it helps explain why gambling authorities may not be convinced by the βinformation marketβ framing.
France Adds Pressure To A Fast-Growing Sector
Polymarket has become one of the most visible prediction-market platforms in crypto.
Its growth has shown that users want markets on politics, macro events, sports, culture, crypto outcomes, and almost anything else that can be resolved with a data source. That demand is real.
But regulatory pressure is real too.
Franceβs action shows that national regulators are willing to use existing gambling powers against crypto-native prediction markets. Other countries may look at similar tools if they believe unlicensed platforms are targeting local users.
For Polymarket and rivals, the path forward may require more jurisdiction-specific controls, licensing strategies, KYC layers, or restricted access.
That could make the user experience less open, but it may be necessary if prediction markets want to operate at scale.
The larger question is whether prediction markets can find a regulatory category that separates useful forecasting from unlicensed gambling. Until that happens, platforms may keep running into country-by-country enforcement.
France has now made its view clear: if Polymarket is accessible to French users without authorization, it can be blocked.
Kazakhstan has approved a strategic crypto mining framework that grants large-scale miners regulated electricity access in exchange for contributing part of their mined digital assets to a state-backed reserve. According to Kazakhstan-based news outlet Zakon.kz, the government approved the newβ¦
Senate Republicans circulated a revised 616-page Crypto Bill draft on July 22 that includes a White House-backed ethics provision, but no Democrat has publicly endorsed the latest text. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he wants to move the bill to the Senate floor before the August recess, although it remains unclear whether Republicans can secure the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation.
The ethics provision bars the president, vice president, members of Congress, senior executive branch officials, and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring certain digital assets while in office.
The provision designates the U.S. attorney general as the primary enforcement authority and does not authorize state attorneys general to enforce the ethics rules.
The ethics restrictions would expire in 2029 unless extended by Congress.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning they would likely need support from at least seven Democrats if all senators vote.
The ethics language was negotiated between Senate Republicans and the White House and reflects a compromise the Trump administration was willing to support.
Under the proposal, crypto platforms could be required to avoid listing digital assets issued or sponsored in violation of the ethics rules, while the attorney general could pursue civil enforcement against officials and parties that knowingly violate the provision.
For many Democrats, however, the enforcement structure remains the central concern. They argue that relying solely on the Department of Justice provides insufficient independent oversight, particularly given President Donald Trumpβs crypto-related business interests. Those concerns intensified after Trumpβs annual financial disclosure reported substantial income tied to crypto ventures, including World Liberty Financial and his memecoin-related businesses.
Alsobrooks Calls DOJ Only Enforcement βAn Unserious Offerβ
Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D, Md.), one of the Democrats who has participated in negotiations on crypto legislation, said this week that any enforcement mechanism limited to the Department of Justice is βan unserious offer.β She added that she could not support the bill under its current ethics language while leaving room for further negotiations before a floor vote.
UPDATE: Sen. Angela Alsobrooks said that the White House proposal to have the DOJ enforce the CLARITY Actβs ethics provisions is an βunserious offer.β
She also said she will not support the bill if it is the only enforcement option, per Eleanor Terrett. pic.twitter.com/Cb0TwfACeR
The main disagreement is over enforcement. Democrats have repeatedly sought to give state attorneys general independent authority to enforce the ethics provisions. The revised Republican draft instead reserves enforcement authority to the U.S. attorney general, preventing states from bringing their own actions under that section of the bill. Democratic lawmakers have argued for months that stronger and more independent oversight is necessary.
A group of Democratic senators, including Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, and Mark Warner, has also said the current CLARITY Act draft remains inadequate on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, and market integrity. Their support could prove critical if Republicans hope to advance the legislation.
Thuneβs Floor Timeline Puts Pressure on Both Sides of the Crypto Bill
Thuneβs plan to pursue a floor vote before the August recess appears designed to increase pressure on negotiators rather than signal that the bill already has sufficient bipartisan backing. When asked whether the legislation was ready, Thune said he was hopeful but acknowledged that further discussions and possible revisions could still be necessary.
UPDATE: The CLARITY Act is heading toward a Senate vote, even without Democratic support.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune plans to bring the crypto bill to the floor as soon as next week, even if no deal is reached with Democrats, per Bloomberg.
The strategy could force lawmakers to either reach a compromise quickly or publicly demonstrate that bipartisan support remains out of reach. If the bill fails to advance before the Senate leaves for the August recess, negotiations could resume later in the year, although the legislative timeline would become less predictable.
The broader crypto regulation package would establish clearer jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, create a regulatory framework for digital assets, and include provisions affecting decentralized finance developers and blockchain infrastructure participants. While Republicans hoped the revised ethics language would attract Democratic support, negotiations remain ongoing, and the billβs prospects are still uncertain.
Polymarket has announced a French court challenge five days after regulators ordered internet providers to block the platform over gambling-loss and market-manipulation concerns. Reuters reported on July 22 that the crypto-based prediction market intends to contest the National Gambling Authorityβsβ¦
Three progressive organizations, Indivisible, Demand Progress, and the Revolving Door Project, sent a letter Tuesday evening to every Democratic Senate office, criticizing Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand over her sonβs ties to the crypto industry. The move complicates her effort to broker a compromise on the CLARITY Act unresolved ethics provisions. It also signals that Senate Democrats backing the bill face an organized political campaign, not just a policy disagreement.
LATEST: Sen. Gillbrand is facing tremendous blacklash from progressives over CLARITY Act ethics rules, per Axios.
Progressive groups including Indivisible and Demand Progress have launched a blistering campaign against Sen. Gillibrand, claiming her familyβs crypto ties exposeβ¦ pic.twitter.com/Ad9rZw9pCF
The letter portrays Gillibrand, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, as vulnerable to the same criticism Democrats have directed at President Donald Trumpβs crypto ventures. The groups argued that attacks on Trumpβs crypto profits lose force if a leading Democratic negotiator has close family ties to the industry.
Meanwhile, Gillibrand has repeatedly called for elected officials and their spouses to avoid issuing or sponsoring digital assets.
The CLARITY Act is the most comprehensive crypto market structure bill proposed in the United States. Passing it requires 60 Senate votes, meaning Republicans still need several Democratic supporters beyond those who backed it in committee.
Sens. Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks voted in favor during the Senate Banking Committee review, leaving leadership searching for additional votes.
At the same time, bipartisan ethics talks continue on multiple fronts. Sens. Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis are working with the White House on compromise language, while Sen. Thom Tillis leads separate bipartisan negotiations. Although no draft has been released, reports suggest discussions are progressing. The debate still centers on how ethics rules should apply to public officials and their families.
Fairshake, the crypto industryβs leading super PAC, also hangs over the negotiations. The group holds roughly $125 million in available funds, raising political stakes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. As a result, both parties have incentives to reach a deal, while progressive groups continue warning against weak ethics provisions.
The current standoff closely resembles last yearβs GENIUS Act debate, when Senate Democrats clashed over crypto regulation and Trumpβs financial connections to the industry. That legislation ultimately secured support from 18 Senate Democrats after lengthy negotiations. Now, the CLARITY Act faces similar internal pressure, familiar lobbying efforts, and another race against the legislative calendar.
Gillibrand again sits at the center of negotiations, and her ability to unite Democrats on an acceptable ethics compromise could determine whether the bill advances. The Senate is expected to consider the legislation before the August recess. Until negotiators release the final ethics language, the battle remains focused on political positioning rather than legislative text.
The merged CLARITY Act runs on one invented term: the ancillary asset, a token sold with a securities offering that is not itself a security. Here is where the concept came from, exactly how it works, why a16z tried toβ¦
The CLARITY Act does not need a majority of the Senate. It needs 60 votes, twice, under a rule written in 1917, and the difference is why crypto legislation keeps dying with majority support. Here is how cloture actually works,β¦
Trump administration AI testing chief Chris Fall resigned after just 90 days, leaving CAISI under interim leadership during a critical period for AI safety standards.
Trump administration AI testing chief Chris Fall resigned after just 90 days, leaving CAISI under interim leadership during a critical period for AI safety standards.
Bitcoin is trading around $66,000 with muted directional conviction, while Washington has added another variable to the equation. President Trump agreed to ethics language that would bar senior federal officials from issuing crypto or any digital assets. He also backed giving enforcement authority to the Justice Department instead of state attorneys general. That decision is already drawing pushback, and its impact could extend beyond Bitcoin.
The ethics provision, confirmed during a White House industry call with crypto adviser Patrick Witt, would prohibit members of Congress, Donald Trump, and the vice president from issuing cryptocurrencies while in office. However, the DOJ enforcement structure has become the main sticking point. That disagreement could shape the next phase of crypto legislation.
LATEST: President Trump AGREES to crypto ethics rules in the CLARITY Act.
The proposal would ban the president, members of Congress and other federal officials from issuing crypto while in office.
Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, a key Clarity Act negotiator, dismissed the proposal as βunserious.β She pointed to Trumpβs memecoin holdings and reported World Liberty Financial income as reasons why federal self policing would not be enough. As a result, the Clarity Actβs ethics provision has become a central issue that could decide whether the Senate advances the bill.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeated that Congress must establish clear federal rules for digital assets. He argued that regulatory certainty is necessary to keep capital and innovation in the United States. Until lawmakers reach an agreement, institutional investors may remain cautious despite Bitcoin holding near the $66,000 level.
Can BTC Break Its Range While DOJ Enforcement Clouds Altcoin Flows? Is It a Bullish Trump Crypto Decision?
Bitcoinβs technical setup remains straightforward. Support sits around the low $64,000s, while resistance stands near the upper $66,000s. Price is still trapped inside that range, with no convincing volume surge confirming a breakout. Meanwhile, derivatives paint the same picture. Funding rates remain neutral, and open interest has yet to expand aggressively.
Bitcoin (BTC)
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Institutional desks also continue watching Washington. Many still see clearer regulatory language as the catalyst for Bitcoinβs next sustained move. Until then, large players appear comfortable waiting instead of chasing price.
With a clearer US policy or even a partial ethics agreement, sentiment could be lifted. That could send Bitcoin above the upper $66,000s, while Ethereum climbs from around $1,930 toward recent swing highs. Or Bitcoin stays range-bound, with Ethereum holding support until a stronger catalyst appears.
Ethereum (ETH)
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It could also become bearish if the ethics dispute drags on while DOJ enforcement is viewed as excessive. That combination could weaken risk appetite across crypto. Speculative altcoins and presale tokens would likely suffer larger losses than Bitcoin or Ethereum, as institutions often rotate into the largest assets during uncertain periods.
That downside scenario deserves the closest attention from presale investors. Tougher DOJ scrutiny of digital asset issuance by public officials could temporarily cool speculative narratives. For now, watching the Senate vote count before adding exposure to higher beta tokens remains the more cautious approach.
Bitcoin Hyper Eyes Early Infrastructure Positioning as BTC Consolidates
Range-bound BTC at current levels offers limited near-term upside at large-cap market caps. Early-stage infrastructure plays are where asymmetric exposure still exists.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning in that gap. Itβs a Bitcoin Layer 2 integrating the Solana Virtual Machine. Itβs the first project to do so, targeting the core limitations that have historically kept Bitcoin sidelined from DeFi: slow throughput, high fees, and absent programmability.
The pitch is execution-layer speed on Bitcoinβs security base, with a decentralized canonical bridge for BTC transfers and sub-Solana-latency smart contract processing built into the stack.
Presale figures: $0.0136835 per $HYPER, with $32.9 million raised to date. Staking is live with a high APY. That raise figure at this price implies a meaningful early-mover discount relative to any post-launch liquidity event.
The White House has accepted what it calls the most extensive federal ethics restrictions ever proposed as the CLARITY Act seeks the Democratic votes needed to clear the Senateβs 60-vote threshold. Punchbowl News reported on Tuesday that White House officialsβ¦