Network-connected surveillance cameras are now widespread in both home and enterprise environments, so securing them is essential to safeguarding physical spaces and sensitive assets. As these devices continue to gain new features and network connectivity capabilities, vulnerabilities in their implementation can have significant security implications.
During our research, we discovered a denial-of-service vulnerability that affects Intelbras IP cameras systems. The flaw resides in a firmware update endpoint that is accessible without authentication and allows anyone with access to the local Wi-Fi network to knock cameras offline. A single request disrupts the camera for only about a minute, but sending periodic requests keeps the device offline indefinitely. We reported the issue to Intelbras, monitored the remediation process, validated the fix in the new firmware, and will now demonstrate the exploitation procedure step-by-step.
Following our notification, Intelbras patched the vulnerability and released updated firmware (R.260804) along with update instructions. A candidate ID of CAN-2026-2035970 has been assigned by MITRE following submission, pending the final CVE assignment. Additionally, the Intelbras team recently informed us that MITRE has classified the vulnerability as Medium, assigning it a score of 5.1 under the CVSS 4.0 framework. The issue discussed in this article is no longer present in the latest firmware version.
Firmware
Intelbras provides firmware files on its official website. While users can manually install these updates via an SD card, the cameras also natively support firmware upgrades over the local network via their web interface and mobile app. We obtained the firmware version v240927 for the iM3B-C (IM3 C) camera, which was the latest available version at the time of our research. According to Intelbras, the same firmware is also compatible with the iMX C, iM4 C, iM5 SC, iME 360 C, and iM7+ FC models. Below, we can view the firmware version and the camera model used as an example.
To provide context, we will explain how the camera’s authentication mechanism works and why it is relevant to accessing the camera’s endpoints. The main firmware component is an ARM binary named sonia, responsible for controlling the kernel drivers used by the camera hardware, authentication, and livestream recording, among other things.
How authentication works
The global.login RPC method handles authentication at the /RPC2_Login endpoint. First, the client, such as the mobile app or a custom script, sends the username and an empty password. The camera responds with an authentication challenge (a set of values to verify the password without transmitting it). This response returns a temporary session, the encryption type in the encryption field, a random value, and a realm (authentication scope). At this stage, a false response is normal and does not indicate a failed login, as the authentication process is not yet complete.
Next, the client calculates the response password from the authentication challenge. It first generates an MD5 (username:realm:original_password) hash as the base. It then calculates a second MD5 (username:random:first_md5) hash, where first_md5 is the result of the previous step. To complete the authentication, the client sends this final result back to /RPC2_Login in a second global.login call, passing the username, calculated password, and temporary session ID.
If the login is accepted, the camera returns true and a new, authenticated session. This session must be used for all subsequent RPC calls, including the camera’s other endpoints, for example, the one that reboots the device or those that expose sensitive information.
Affected endpoint
The affected endpoint is the firmware upgrade route http://<ip_address>/firmwareUpgrade_service/Demo, which lacks authentication checks; furthermore, it fails to verify whether the firmware is actually valid before initiating the upgrade process. This creates a serious issue because the upgrade requires the camera to reboot, and that is precisely when the problem occurs: the camera enters reboot mode and eventually shuts down, appearing offline to the user and anyone who has the camera registered on their device.
PoC: vulnerability exploitation
Now that we have outlined how the vulnerability works, we will use a Python script on an iM3B-C camera to exploit it for demonstration purposes. The exploit contacts the camera’s endpoint to upload firmware. Below, we can see sonia creating the endpoint responsible for the firmware upgrade.
Next, the exploit will hit the endpoint and cause the camera to reboot. Consequently, mobile phones running the Intelbras app will lose connection with the registered device. Below, we can see the camera operating normally: the green light is on and the app is showing it is available for viewing.
The camera is online
After the exploit executes, we can see the effects: the camera goes offline and loses connection to the registered devices.
The camera is offline
The exploit is quite simple: it sends an HTTP POST request with the firmware, which causes the camera to accept the request and initiate the reboot process. It does not matter whether the firmware is original; the reboot process will start regardless.
New firmware version
After we notified Intelbras about this flaw in the endpoint implementation, the company contacted the OEM vendor. As a result, a new firmware version was released that requires authentication to initiate an update through this endpoint.
Below, we can compare the new firmware, which validates cookies and session data, with the old firmware, which performed no authentication checks and proceeded directly to the update routine.
Real risk
An attacker can remotely trigger the camera firmware upgrade and reboot process without authenticating or supplying a valid firmware image. This may cause the device to go offline, which results in a denial-of-service condition preventing legitimate users from accessing live monitoring or managing the camera.
The potential impact is significant due to the number of affected users. The Intelbras Mibo Smart app, which the company provides to connect and manage the devices mentioned in this report, has over 4,000,000 downloads. Brazil represents the largest user base, followed by Paraguay, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Uruguay, and Venezuela. As a result, exploitation of this issue affects a large number of users.
Takeaways
This is a medium-severity vulnerability that Intelbras is already aware of. The issue has been addressed in a newer firmware release (R.260804 along with update instructions), which mitigates this attack vector. Because the vulnerability directly affects the availability and normal operation of the affected cameras, it is highly recommended that users verify the firmware version currently installed on their devices and update to the latest available version as soon as possible. Keeping the firmware up to date is an essential security practice, especially for internet-connected surveillance devices, as outdated versions may remain exposed to known vulnerabilities.
Cybersecurity researchers at Forescout are drawing attention to the risks posed by exposed refrigeration control systems, warning that weaknesses in operational technology (OT) could have serious consequences for food supplies, business continuity and other temperature-sensitive operations.
The warning comes following cyberattacks against French supermarkets in October 2026, which reportedly disrupted refrigeration systems at hundreds of stores. Attackers were able to interfere with cooling operations, resulting in temperature fluctuations, spoiled stock and significant disruption.
The incidents have raised concerns about the security of internet-connected refrigeration equipment, particularly where older systems, exposed management interfaces and inadequate access controls leave operational technology vulnerable to interference.
When Cyberattacks Have Physical Consequences
Unlike conventional IT attacks, which frequently focus on stealing data or disrupting digital services, attacks against refrigeration controllers can directly affect physical processes.
These systems are responsible for maintaining temperatures across supermarkets, food storage facilities and other environments where consistent cooling is essential.
If attackers gain sufficient access, they may be able to manipulate temperature settings, interfere with defrost cycles or disrupt equipment operations. The consequences can extend beyond IT downtime to include damaged stock, financial losses and potential safety risks.
The issue also extends beyond food retail. Refrigeration and temperature-control systems are used in healthcare, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and logistics, making their security an important consideration across several industries.
Internet Exposure Creates Opportunities for Attackers
One of the central concerns is the accessibility of operational technology that was not originally designed to withstand direct exposure to the internet.
Remote management capabilities allow engineers and third-party maintenance providers to monitor and adjust refrigeration equipment without visiting individual sites. However, these connections can introduce security weaknesses if they are poorly configured or inadequately protected.
Research into industrial control systems has identified publicly accessible management interfaces, outdated firmware and weak authentication as recurring problems.
In some cases, organisations may not have complete visibility of the equipment connected to their networks, particularly where systems have been installed and maintained by external contractors.
New research from Forescout’s Vedere Labs has identified 12,976 internet-exposed service observations across ten product groups, associated with 6,017 distinct public IP addresses in 99 countries and territories.
The findings suggest that the weaknesses highlighted by the French supermarket attacks are part of a much wider global problem.
The largest number of observations involved Copeland/Dixell XWEB services, with 7,075 recorded, followed by 4,697 Danfoss StoreView services. Researchers also identified 551 Copeland Site Supervisor services, 513 Carel pCOWeb services and 140 observations across six other product groups.
Importantly, these figures represent exposed services rather than confirmed compromised devices. A single IP address may host multiple services, while one management interface may control several downstream systems.
The researchers also found that 3,762 Danfoss StoreView service observations, representing 80% of the total, were running firmware older than version 4.3.1, making them potentially vulnerable to two previously disclosed security flaws.
Hacktivists Have Targeted Refrigeration Before
Forescout’s research suggests that attacks against refrigeration systems are not a new development.
According to a technical bulletin published by Danfoss, hacktivist attacks in 2022 affected 16 Russian supermarkets and 40 stores in Israel.
Forescout has also tracked more than 20 claimed attacks against refrigeration systems since January 2026, with pro-Russian hacktivist groups Z-Pentest Alliance and NoName057(16) among the most active.
Targets have included supermarkets, wineries, fruit storage facilities and agricultural businesses across Europe.
However, the researchers stress that the initial access methods and identities of those responsible for the recent French attacks have not been confirmed.
Securing the Cold Chain
Forescout is urging organisations to review how refrigeration management systems are connected to the internet and who is authorised to access them.
Recommendations include removing publicly accessible management interfaces, replacing unsupported equipment, applying available security updates and introducing secure remote access for maintenance contractors.
The researchers also recommend multifactor authentication, individual user accounts and continuous monitoring to identify suspicious changes to temperature settings, defrost schedules and alarms.
The challenge is that attackers do not necessarily need to deploy malware to cause disruption. Once they gain sufficient access, they may be able to misuse legitimate management functions, making malicious activity harder to distinguish from routine maintenance.
The research highlights a broader issue for operational technology security: organisations need visibility not only of connected devices, but also of who can access them, what changes they can make and how those changes affect physical operations.
IoT and OT devices can create hidden security gaps. Learn how asset visibility helps organizations find forgotten devices and reduce network security risks now.
Cybercriminals used to hacking home routers and security cameras have found another Internet-connected device to add to their botnets: your car, according to research published by Kaspersky Lab.
The statistics in this report are based on detection verdicts returned by Kaspersky products unless otherwise stated. The information was provided by Kaspersky users who consented to sharing statistical data.
Quarterly figures
In Q2 2026:
Kaspersky products blocked nearly 400 million attacks that originated with various online resources.
Web Anti-Virus responded to 52 million unique links.
File Anti-Virus blocked more than 16 million malicious and potentially unwanted objects.
There were 2538 new ransomware variants discovered.
More than 71,000 users experienced ransomware attacks.
15% of all ransomware victims whose data was published on threat actors’ data leak sites (DLS) were attacked by Qilin.
More than 213,000 users were targeted by miners.
Ransomware
Quarterly trends and highlights
Threat actor disruption
Microsoft has dismantled an illicit malware-signing service used by ransomware operators. Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit has shut down a malware-signing-as-a-service (MSaaS) operation run by the threat group Fox Tempest. The illicit service abused the Microsoft Artifact Signing platform to generate digital signature certificates for malicious software. Malware signed by these certificates was observed in campaigns conducted by such ransomware groups as Rhysida, Akira, INC, Qilin, and BlackByte. The service was also leveraged by operators of the Oyster loader as well as the Lumma and Vidar infostealers. To disrupt the operation, Microsoft seized the domain used by the MSaaS platform, revoked all associated certificates, and disabled the related accounts. Additionally, the company filed a lawsuit against Fox Tempest.
Vulnerabilities and attacks
CISA has confirmed that a Windows vulnerability known as BlueHammer is actively being exploited in ransomware attacks. On April 22, the agency updated its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog to note the ongoing ransomware exploitation of CVE-2026-33825. The local privilege escalation flaw in Microsoft Defender was originally disclosed earlier in April. Although Microsoft released a fix on April 14, unpatched systems remain vulnerable. CISA did not disclose further details or attribute the attacks to specific threat groups.
Check Point has linked zero-day exploitation of CVE-2026-50751 to the Qilin ransomware group. The critical vulnerability affects Check Point Remote Access VPN and Mobile Access. Attackers began exploiting the flaw as a zero-day on May 7, with activity spiking sharply in early June. While several dozen organizations have been targeted, at least one incident has been definitively tied to Qilin. Check Point also disclosed a related certificate validation flaw (CVE-2026-50752) that affects site-to-site VPN connections relying on the legacy IKEv1 key exchange protocol.
Researchers assess with high confidence that the PayoutsKing group is leveraging the legitimate QEMU emulator to deploy hidden, Alpine Linux-based virtual machines on compromised hosts. Because security solutions often lack visibility inside virtualized environments, the threat actors use this technique to evade detection. Inside the VM image, the operators deploy various tools — such as credential theft software — and configure the virtual machine as a backdoor managed via a reverse SSH tunnel to their command-and-control infrastructure. While the technique is not new, and we’ve detailed it before, it remains relatively rare in ransomware attacks.
The most prolific groups
This section highlights the most prolific ransomware gangs by number of victims added to each group’s DLS. Qilin reclaimed the top spot (accounting for 14.57% of total listings) after placing second last quarter. It is followed by the Akira ransomware (7.80%) and the DragonForce RaaS group (6.88%).
Number of each group’s victims according to its DLS as a percentage of all groups’ victims published on all the DLSs under review during the reporting period (download)
Number of new ransomware variants
In Q2, Kaspersky solutions detected four new ransomware families and 2538 new modifications. This signals a continued stabilization following spikes seen in Q1 and Q4 of last year.
Number of new ransomware modifications, Q2 2025 — Q2 2026 (download)
Number of users attacked by ransomware Trojans
Our solutions protected a total of 71,860 unique users from ransomware during Q2. Ransomware activity peaked in April, with 31,206 targeted users recorded during that month.
Number of unique users attacked by ransomware Trojans, Q2 2026 (download)
TOP 10 countries and territories attacked by ransomware Trojans
Country/territory*
%**
1
South Korea
0.87
2
Pakistan
0.76
3
China
0.71
4
Libya
0.49
5
Tajikistan
0.46
6
Turkmenistan
0.38
7
Cameroon
0.38
8
Indonesia
0.36
9
Bangladesh
0.36
10
Mozambique
0.34
* Excluded are countries and territories with relatively few (under 50,000) Kaspersky users.
** Unique users whose computers were attacked by ransomware Trojans as a percentage of all unique users of Kaspersky products in the country/territory.
* Unique Kaspersky users attacked by the specific ransomware Trojan family as a percentage of all unique users attacked by this type of threat.
Miners
Number of new miner variants
In Q2 2026, Kaspersky solutions detected 6067 new miner variants, almost twice the number for the previous reporting period.
Number of new miner modifications, Q2 2026 (download)
Number of users attacked by miners
In Q2, we detected attacks using miner programs on the computers of 213,003 unique Kaspersky users worldwide.
Number of unique users attacked by miners, Q2 2026 (download)
TOP 10 countries and territories attacked by miners
Country/territory*
%**
1
Mali
1.56
2
Senegal
1.54
3
Tanzania
1.32
4
Panama
1.04
5
Bangladesh
1.03
6
Ethiopia
0.87
7
Costa Rica
0.67
8
Bolivia
0.67
9
Côte d’Ivoire
0.65
10
Kazakhstan
0.62
* Excluded are countries and territories with relatively few (under 50,000) Kaspersky users.
** Unique users whose computers were attacked by miners as a percentage of all unique users of Kaspersky products in the country/territory.
Attacks on macOS
Quarterly highlights
In April, Aikido researchers reported a new attack by the GlassWorm stealer, which was distributed via malicious IDE extensions on the Open VSX Registry. The payload operated by installing a secondary malicious extension across all installed IDE environments on the host machine. Ultimately, this second-stage implant exfiltrated crypto wallet data, environment variables, and other secrets. It also installed a RAT on the infected device.
In May, Socket researchers uncovered a supply chain compromise involving the popular npm package art-template. As a result of the breach, the weaponized package injected the Coruna exploit kit into web applications it was used to build. Coruna targets iOS devices.
In June, Palo Alto Networks’ Unit 42 discovered FlutterShell, a new backdoor family that targets macOS devices. Developed with the Flutter framework, the malware leverages the WebView engine to load web pages that contain malicious JavaScript. On the client side, the backdoor registers bridge functions invoked by the loaded JavaScript that allow threat actors to execute arbitrary payloads on the victim’s device. Notably, the malicious applications successfully passed Apple notarization. Although the specific samples analyzed functioned primarily as adware, the underlying architecture permits the delivery of far more sophisticated malicious payloads.
TOP 20 threats to macOS
* Unique users who encountered this malware as a percentage of all attacked users of Kaspersky security solutions for macOS (download)
* Data for the previous quarter may differ slightly from previously published data due to some verdicts being retrospectively revised.
Detections of PasivRobber spyware continued their downward trend. Meanwhile, adware and traffic-routing utilities (categorized as NetTool) rose to the top of the rankings. Additionally, Q2 saw a noticeable spike in detections for the DirtyCow exploit frequently leveraged for iPhone jailbreaking.
TOP 10 countries and territories by share of attacked users
Country/territory
%* Q1 2026
%* Q2 2026
Brazil
1.13
1.13
China
1.04
1.28
Hong Kong
0.92
0.49
Singapore
0.85
0.19
France
0.62
1.18
Mexico
0.43
0.72
India
0.41
0.42
Thailand
0.40
0.24
Germany
0.33
0.71
The Netherlands
0.31
0.62
* Unique users who encountered threats to macOS as a percentage of all unique Kaspersky users in the country/territory.
IoT threat statistics
This section presents statistics on attacks targeting Kaspersky IoT honeypots. The geographic data on attack sources is based on the IP addresses of attacking devices.
In Q2 2026, the breakdown of attacking devices and sessions that targeted Kaspersky honeypots by protocol was as follows:
Distribution of attacked services by number of unique IP addresses of attacking devices (download)
The share of SSH attacks saw a slight uptick compared to the previous quarter.
Distribution of cybercriminal sessions in Kaspersky honeypots (download)
TOP 10 threats delivered to IoT devices
Share of each threat delivered to an infected device as a result of a successful attack, out of the total number of threats delivered (download)
As is typically the case, Mirai botnet variants continue to dominate the IoT threat landscape. Activity of another prominent botnet, Prometei, also saw an increase.
Attacks on IoT honeypots
the Netherlands, Germany, and The United States accounted for the highest proportions of SSH-based attacks during this period. While the top three countries remained the same as last quarter, their relative rankings shifted.
Country/territory
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
The Netherlands
17.57%
21.18%
Germany
10.34%
16.73%
United States
23.74%
6.76%
Bulgaria
1.10%
5.50%
Sweden
2.09%
4.93%
Panama
6.34%
4.67%
Luxembourg
0.16%
4.62%
Romania
5.82%
4.06%
Vietnam
3.50%
3.91%
India
6.05%
2.78%
The percentage of Telnet-based attacks originating from Pakistan continued to climb, knocking China down to second place.
Country/territory
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Pakistan
27.31%
36.60%
China
39.54%
35.62%
Russian Federation
8.25%
8.75%
India
4.66%
4.19%
Brazil
3.30%
3.34%
United States
0.45%
3.03%
Indonesia
6.71%
1.52%
Philippines
0.36%
0.95%
France
0.17%
0.84%
Thailand
0.55%
0.66%
Attacks via web resources
The statistics in this section are based on detection verdicts by Web Anti-Virus, which protects users when suspicious objects are downloaded from malicious or infected web pages. These malicious pages are purposefully created by cybercriminals. Websites that host user-generated content, such as message boards, as well as compromised legitimate sites, can become infected.
TOP 10 countries and territories that served as sources of web-based attacks
The following statistics show the distribution by country/territory of the sources of internet attacks blocked by Kaspersky products on user computers (web pages redirecting to exploits, sites containing exploits and other malware, botnet C&C centers, and so on). One or more web-based attacks could originate from each unique host.
To determine the geographic source of web attacks, we matched the domain name with the real IP address where the domain is hosted, then identified the geographic location of that IP address (GeoIP).
In Q2 2026, Kaspersky solutions blocked 399,312,961 attacks launched from internet resources worldwide. Web Anti-Virus was triggered by 52,850,592 unique URLs.
Web-based attacks by country/territory, Q1 2026 (download)
Countries and territories where users faced the greatest risk of online infection
To assess the risk of malware infection via the internet for users’ computers in different countries and territories, we calculated the share of Kaspersky users in each location on whose computers Web Anti-Virus was triggered during the reporting period. The resulting data provides an indication of the aggressiveness of the environment in which computers operate in different countries and territories.
This ranked list includes only attacks by malicious objects classified as Malware. Our calculations leave out Web Anti-Virus detections of potentially dangerous or unwanted programs, such as RiskTool or adware.
Country/territory*
%**
1
Bangladesh
11.71
2
India
7.40
3
Tajikistan
7.13
4
Venezuela
7.05
5
New Zealand
6.58
6
Vietnam
6.34
7
Taiwan
6.28
8
Belgium
6.24
9
France
5.97
10
Hungary
5.92
11
Nepal
5.91
12
Portugal
5.86
13
Italy
5.77
14
Costa Rica
5.72
15
Canada
5.65
16
Qatar
5.61
17
Dominican Republic
5.52
18
Palestine
5.48
19
Greece
5.47
20
UAE
5.43
* Excluded are countries and territories with relatively few (under 10,000) Kaspersky product users.
** Unique users targeted by web-based Malware attacks as a percentage of all unique users of Kaspersky products in the country/territory.
On average during the quarter, 4.54% of users’ computers worldwide were subjected to at least one Malware web attack.
Local threats
Statistics on local infections of user computers are an important indicator. They include objects that penetrated the target computer by infecting files or removable media, or initially made their way onto the computer in non-open form. Examples of the latter are programs in complex installers and encrypted files.
Data in this section is based on analyzing statistics produced by anti-virus scans of files on the hard drive at the moment they were created or accessed, and the results of scanning removable storage media. The statistics are based on detection verdicts from the On-Access Scan (OAS) and On-Demand Scan (ODS) modules of File Anti-Virus and include detections of malicious programs located on user computers or removable media connected to the computers, such as flash drives, camera memory cards, phones, or external hard drives.
In Q2 2026, our File Anti-Virus detected 16,986,351 malicious and potentially unwanted objects.
Countries and territories where users faced the highest risk of local infection
For each country and territory, we calculated the percentage of Kaspersky users whose computers had the File Anti-Virus triggered at least once during the reporting period. These statistics reflect the level of personal computer infection in different countries.
Note that this ranked list includes only attacks by malicious objects classified as Malware. Our calculations leave out File Anti-Virus detections of potentially dangerous or unwanted programs, such as RiskTool or adware.
Country/territory*
%**
1
Turkmenistan
46.38
2
Cuba
29.70
3
Tajikistan
28.46
4
Afghanistan
28.19
5
Yemen
27.85
6
Burundi
26.82
7
Mozambique
25.01
8
Republic of the Congo
24.88
9
Syria
23.17
10
Uzbekistan
22.49
11
China
21.92
12
Nicaragua
21.60
13
Cameroon
21.47
14
Bangladesh
20.43
15
Democratic Republic of the Congo
20.25
16
Algeria
19.78
17
Uganda
19.48
18
Ethiopia
18.57
19
Tanzania
18.54
20
Mali
18.53
* Excluded are countries and territories with relatively few (under 10,000) Kaspersky users.
** Unique users on whose computers Malware local threats were blocked, as a percentage of all unique users of Kaspersky products in the country/territory.
On average worldwide, Malware local threats were detected at least once on 10.93% of users’ computers during Q2.
A quarter million commercial vehicles in India and sensitive data on tens of thousands of drivers were vulnerable to attacks because of flaws in widely used fleet management software maintained by a VE Commercial Vehicles, a joint venture between the Volvo Group and Eicher Motors, a security researcher has revealed.
A security researcher writing under the name tokay0 disclosed a flaw that could allow an attacker to access and control more than 600,000 deployed Shark model robot vacuums.
In this episode of the podcast, host Paul Roberts interviews Nishawn Smagh of the firm GreyNoise Intelligence about the findings of their State of the Edge report, an analysis of GreyNoise data on risks stemming from compromised edge devices such as broadband routers, VPN gateways, smart home devices and more. Shawn and Paul talk about how attackers are turning edge devices into their favorite entry point, and strategies for organizations to counter the growing risk of compromised edge devices.
Google announced that it helped take down NetNut, a 2 million strong malicious residential proxy network. The incident highlights the growing risks posed by residential proxy networks that quietly conscript consumer devices into services used by cybercriminals and nation-state actors alike.
The EU’s MSS 2 GHz proposal strengthens regulation, security, and competition, but implementation through 2027–2029 will be phased, not immediate.
Small spectrum block sizes favor IoT, messaging, emergency services; large-bandwidth applications face bottlenecks.
When the European Commission unveiled its plan late last month to reassign the 2 GHz mobile satellite service (MSS) spectrum at EU-level, it initiated more than a regulatory proposal. With the dust now settled on the announcement, it is clear that this represents a geopolitical and commercial realignment. Signals in the market suggest the framework is firming up around core principles: sovereignty, security, restricted eligibility, spectrum caps, and wholesale access. But beneath those pillars lies a battlefield of interests that will define not just who wins licenses, but which services Europe values the most – IoT or in-flight broadband, messaging or full-fledged device-to-device (D2D) connectivity.
Implementation is no longer a reactive guesswork exercise; it is becoming a long game. While the proposal’s two-year incumbency extension mitigates the cliff edge in May 2027 (when existing licenses expire), it also reveals the commission’s understanding: that legislative processes, spectrum allocation, compliance criteria, and defining “EU provider” are unlikely to be resolved by that deadline. Toward end-2027 and into 2028, observers should expect spectrum awards, provisional licenses, and a cascade of certification, rollouts, and enforcement activities stretching well into 2029. This also coincides with ITU’s WRC-27 conference, in which key spectrum allocations – including MSS – and updates to radio regulations are expected to be finalized and will offer clarity on the international trajectory of spectrum allocations for MSS.
Commercial implications are now emerging with greater clarity. The planned 30 MHz paired allocation in 5 + 5 MHz blocks is modest; sufficient for low-bandwidth IoT, messaging, and emergency services, yet wholly inadequate for high-throughput, low-latency use cases such as in-flight broadband or widespread D2D applications. Telcos and satellite operators should be preparing for trade-offs: either focus on niche verticals where limited spectrum suffices, or scale via partnerships, capacity leasing, or wholesale models. The missing “IoT reservation” is not a bug; rather, it is a structural risk: IoT may get parceled out only where extra capacity exists, and only if stakeholders ensure selection criteria explicitly to protect it. D2D has won primacy as per the initial tone of the Commission in its press release.
Definitions will matter, especially in the case of the term “EU Provider,” which is morphing into a fulcrum for competition. The 2 GHz is currently occupied by two US firms: Viasat for European inflight connectivity, and EchoStar for IoT and mobile connectivity. Post-May 2027, such entities will need to operate through European-owned subsidiaries or JVs. AST SpaceMobile has already localized itself via Satellite Connect Europe and is expected to qualify. But expectation of strict control over decision-making, governance, and spectrum transfer will push non-EU-based providers – SpaceX (which owns EchoStar spectrum), Viasat, and Amazon Leo – to engineer complex JV structures or seek regulatory exemption. In the case of the latter, GlobalData expects both litigation and political pressure from incumbents based in the US, particularly via the US government or trade bodies, and especially within the incumbent Trump administration window. Retaliation against European satcos is also a possibility, though it is unlikely that the bloc will collectively budge.
For telcos, the strategic moment is now. Whether to bid directly, partner with incumbents, or secure wholesale access depends on scale, access to capital, regulatory risk appetite, and technical readiness. Device certification, security compliance, antenna deployment, and supply chain capacity remain gating factors. By late-2028, the winners will be those who have not only secured licenses or partnerships, but who align with the EU’s overriding narrative: resilience, sovereignty, and competition.
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