Bitcoin jumped roughly 25% to a two-month high above $77,000 within hours of the U.S. Treasury doubling its long-dated bonds buyback operations on August 19.

Falling Treasury yields triggered a short squeeze estimated $3.5 billion across crypto derivatives.

The move raises a pointed question: did Bitcoin catch a genuine liquidity tailwind, or trade a one-day signal that the bond market itself partially reversed within 24 hours?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move came a day after the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, its highest level since 2007, amid a global bond selloff tied to inflation worries, an escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, and mounting concern over the U.S. fiscal trajectory. Total U.S. debt outstanding crossed $40 trillion the same day the buyback announcement landed.

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What the Buyback Actually Buys

Treasury will double the size of its 10- to 30-year buyback operations to at least $4 billion per operation, up from $2 billion previously, effective September 9 through November 4.

That adds at least $14 billion of additional liquidity support this quarter, bringing maximum repurchases in the current window to $83 billion, measured against a $32.2 trillion Treasury market and $5.5 trillion in outstanding 20- and 30-year bonds.

The announcement worked in the way it was designed to, at least initially: the 30-year yield fell to 5.184% from Tuesday’s high, and the 10-year yield dropped roughly six basis points to 4.66%.

Dan Gottlander, global head of USD and CAD swaps trading at Citi, told Reuters the move would have a huge impact on the long end, though he cautioned that Treasury would still need to issue elsewhere to cover the shortfall.

“It does not change deficits, obviously, and if you are going to buy back the long end, you still will need to issue. They may issue more bills, or also in the five-year to 10-year sector.”

That distinction matters for anyone reading the move as quantitative easing. A Treasury buyback is financed by issuing new short-term bills to retire older, harder-to-trade long bonds, a refinancing operation that swaps one liability for another without expanding the money supply, unlike the Federal Reserve’s own bond purchases under QE, which credit new bank reserves into existence.

Conflating the two overstates how loose the operation actually makes financial conditions.

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Why the Relief Didn’t Last

By August 20, Bessent said he might increase buyback sizes even further. “We’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” he said. “I would note that it could be more than the $4 billion per issue.” He argued that yields didn’t reflect the underlying strength of the economy, tying the spike partly to the Iran conflict.

The bond market wasn’t fully convinced. The 30-year yield climbed back to 5.24% by August 20, retracing roughly half of the prior day’s drop, while the dollar clawed back most of its post-announcement losses. According to Bit.com’s market analysis, Bitcoin gave back the $70,000 level within hours, settling into the high-$60,000s after Fed minutes reintroduced rate-hike risk.

Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, told Reuters the surprise buyback announcement broke with Treasury’s tradition of predictable debt issuance, calling the move “shot from the hip.”

Evercore ISI analysts framed it more charitably, crediting Bessent’s tactical skill in catching bond shorts off guard during thin August liquidity, but questioned whether the impact would hold given the “tidal wave” of maturing debt and deficits still to be financed.

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Bitcoin Just Traded a Policy Surprise: Kalshi Lets Traders Position Before the Next One Hits.

The Treasury buyback showed how fast crypto can reprice when a macro decision catches the market off guard. Bitcoin surged, shorts were squeezed, yields fell, and then part of the move unwound as the bond market reassessed what had actually changed.

Kalshi gives traders another way to approach that kind of setup.

The platform offers markets around economic data, Fed policy, politics, crypto, and other real-world events that can move risk assets. Instead of waiting for Bitcoin to react to the next Treasury announcement, rate decision, or inflation print, traders can take a position on the underlying outcome itself.

That distinction matters when the asset reaction is messy. Bitcoin can move on leverage, positioning, dollar strength, and liquidity all at once. An event market lets traders isolate the question they actually have conviction on.

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The post Treasury’s $14 Billion Buyback Triggered a $3.5 Billion Crypto Short Squeeze appeared first on Cryptonews.

Trump Media has scaled back plans to embed a native prediction-market engine inside Truth Social, opting instead for a marketing arrangement that steers users toward Crypto.com’s existing event-contract platform.

The retreat lands ten months after Trump Media billed Truth Predict as a category-defining product, and it forces a blunt question: how much operating exposure was a Trump-linked platform ever willing to carry inside a market regulators still can’t agree on how to police.

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Trump Prediction Market: From “World’s First” to a Marketing Deal

The original October 28, 2025 announcement was unambiguous. Trump Media said Truth Social would become the first social media platform to offer embedded prediction markets, built through an exclusive arrangement with Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse.

The plan covered contracts on elections, interest and inflation rate changes, commodity prices, and every major sports league, with real-time pricing and a mechanism letting users convert Truth Social’s “Truth gems” into CRO to fund trades.

Then-CEO Devin Nunes framed the product as a way to democratize markets historically controlled by financial elites, while Crypto.com co-founder Kris Marszalek described prediction markets as a multi-decabillion-dollar opportunity for the two companies to build together. Neither framing survived intact.

Trump Media’s latest public filing now describes Truth Predict as still “in development,” with the initial rollout limited to a marketing and promotion collaboration that points users to OG.com, the Crypto.com-owned prediction markets app that launched in February 2026.

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The CRO Treasury Deal Died With It

The prediction-market pullback wasn’t an isolated decision. Trump Media, Crypto.com and Yorkville Acquisition Corp mutually terminated plans for Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, the digital-asset treasury vehicle that was supposed to become the first and largest publicly traded holder of Crypto.com’s CRO token.

The companies pointed to shifting market conditions and stakeholder priorities, and interim Trump Media CEO Kevin McGurn said the goal now is to narrow the company’s focus rather than chase every crypto-adjacent product line.

The timing coincides with a broader crypto-treasury unwind: Bitcoin has fallen nearly half from its 2025 peak, and enthusiasm for token-hoarding stock vehicles has cooled sharply along with it.

McGurn said the prediction-market space is already crowded with established operators, making it a less attractive place for Trump Media to build back-end infrastructure than to sit on top of as a data and distribution partner.

That reframing matters more than the language suggests, it converts Trump Media from a would-be prediction-market front end into a promoter, a materially different operating posture.

A Jurisdiction Fight Trump Media Is Now Watching From the Sidelines

The retreat also lets Trump Media step back from an unresolved brawl over who actually regulates event contracts. The CFTC sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois in April 2026 to reaffirm what Chairman Michael Selig calls the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, arguing that a national framework beats a state-by-state patchwork.

States including Nevada, Wisconsin and Massachusetts have separately pursued prediction-market operators in court or through enforcement actions, arguing that sports event contracts amount to unlicensed gambling, a direct challenge to sports betting regulation as it currently exists at the state level.

That standoff is exactly the kind of exposure a company more directly involved in offering prediction markets could face. As a marketing partner routing traffic to Crypto.com’s infrastructure instead, Trump Media reduces its direct operating role while still capturing distribution value.

The broader federal-versus-state tension over who writes the rules for crypto markets is playing out in parallel fights over the SEC-CFTC jurisdictional divide, and the outcome of pending crypto market-structure rulemaking will shape how much room CDNA-style exchanges have to expand.

The post “World’s First” Trump Prediction Market Product Killed, What Happened to Truth Predict? appeared first on Cryptonews.

Polymarket CLARITY Act odds being signed into law this year fell below 20% early this week. The decline followed months of uncertainty over whether the Senate can advance the crypto market-structure legislation.

Bitcoin (BTC)

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Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds: The Recess That Reset The Clock

The Senate adjourned for its August recess without a vote on the bill. Before lawmakers left town, Senate Majority Leader Thune scheduled a vote for September 15, American Banker reported.

American Banker described September 30 as the last clear deadline before Congress turns more fully toward campaigns and partisanship.

The scheduled September vote keeps the bill in play, but negotiations over its remaining provisions have yet to produce a final outcome.

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What Moved The Odds

Polymarket traders gave the bill a 20% chance of passing by year-end, down from a high of 82% on February 19.

The odds had declined since early May as the Senate calendar narrowed and lawmakers faced questions about assembling bipartisan support.

Senate negotiations have remained focused on unresolved ethics provisions. CoinDesk described the absence of bipartisan ethics language as one of the bill’s largest obstacles, while American Banker noted that a merged text combining the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions had recently been released.

What the Bill is Designed to Address

If enacted, the Clarity Act would establish a federal framework for digital-asset markets and draw a clearer line between assets regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and those overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Supporters of the measure argue that clearer statutory rules would reduce regulatory uncertainty and bring crypto activity onshore. They have also argued that legislation would provide durable rules rather than leaving the industry to operate under agency guidance.

The September 15 vote is the next scheduled milestone for the legislation. American Banker argued that September 30 is the last clear deadline before campaign considerations make further movement more difficult.

For now, the sub-20% Polymarket reading reflects skepticism about whether the Senate can resolve the outstanding issues and move the bill forward this year. The bill’s House passage, Senate committee approval and scheduled September vote show that the legislation remains active, but its unresolved ethics provisions continue to weigh on its prospects.

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