Bitcoin’s reputation for strong October rallies is facing another test. After five consecutive years of gains during the month, the cryptocurrency is now on track for its second negative October in a row.
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin falling 4.2% between September 30 and October 25, with its price slipping from $83,567 to $80,051.
That’s a disappointing result for a month traders often call “Uptober.” But with several days remaining before October closes, the final outcome is not yet settled.
What concerns us more is the weakness in buying demand, which could make a sustained recovery difficult as November approaches.
October has delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest monthly performances in recent years.
In 2020, BTC gained 27.6%. The following year brought an even larger increase of 40%, while October 2023 delivered a 28.5% rally.
The returns weren’t always spectacular. Bitcoin rose just 5.5% in October 2022 and 10.9% in 2024. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency managed to finish every October from 2020 through 2024 in positive territory.
That pattern changed in 2025, when Bitcoin recorded a 3.8% loss.
Now, with October 2026 showing a 4.2% decline through the 25th, the market faces the possibility of another disappointing finish.
The contrast is striking. CryptoQuant’s chart places the average October return for 2020–2025 at 18.1%.
We wouldn’t treat that historical average as a prediction, though. Seasonal patterns can provide context, but they offer little protection when market conditions change.
The October decline is not simply a matter of disappointing historical expectations.
Recent on-chain indicators suggest buyers have become increasingly cautious.
According to CryptoQuant’s October 27 market analysis, Bitcoin spot demand had remained negative since October 14. The firm’s estimates also showed cumulative demand falling by approximately 76,000 BTC over the preceding 30 days.
Another concerning signal came from the Coinbase premium, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin trading on Coinbase and other exchanges.
The indicator remained negative throughout October, suggesting weaker buying interest from US-based market participants.
We see these demand figures as more useful than the Uptober narrative alone. Bitcoin needs sustained buying activity to support a meaningful recovery, regardless of what the calendar suggests.
With Bitcoin trading near $80,000 in the chart’s October 25 snapshot, attention is turning to potential support levels.
CryptoQuant identified the 73,000–77,600 range as an important area to monitor if selling pressure continues.
Several technical indicators fall within that region, including Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average and the realized price of short-term holders.
These levels are not guaranteed to hold. However, they provide reference points for evaluating whether the market is stabilizing or entering another period of weakness.
A recovery above recent trading levels would offer a more encouraging signal, particularly if accompanied by stronger spot demand.
For now, we’ll be watching price action alongside developments in the broader Bitcoin market, rather than relying on seasonal expectations.
October’s weakness does not automatically mean November will follow the same direction.
Bitcoin has experienced both substantial gains and steep losses during November in previous years.
That mixed history is a reminder that monthly performance patterns can change quickly.
Upcoming economic developments may also influence investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision and the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3 are among the events traders are monitoring.
Interest-rate expectations, institutional investment flows, and broader risk appetite could all affect Bitcoin’s direction.
We will also be following changes across the cryptocurrency market, where shifts in Bitcoin sentiment frequently influence other digital assets.
The immediate question is whether Bitcoin can recover enough before October 31 to finish the month in positive territory.
A reversal remains possible, but the latest demand indicators suggest buyers have work to do.
Even if October ends in the red, that outcome alone would not establish the direction of Bitcoin’s next major move.
What matters more is whether demand improves, institutional capital returns, and important price levels remain intact.
As we continue tracking Bitcoin price developments, those signals will help us assess whether the current weakness is temporary or part of a longer correction.
For now, Uptober is falling short of its reputation. November may offer a fresh opportunity, but the market will need more than historical optimism to support a recovery.
Bitcoin Magazine
Luxor Announces $16M Funding Round to Scale AI Compute, Derivatives
AI hardware is sold out, and the companies that cut their teeth in Bitcoin mining are moving in. Luxor just raised $16 million in a round led by CMT Digital to scale its cloud platform, GPU hardware business and compute trading. Ethan Vera of Luxor and Sam Hallene of CMT Digital join BMTV to explain why Bitcoin mining expertise translates so well into AI compute.
Chapters:
00:00 Luxor Raises $16M to Take Bitcoin Mining Expertise Into AI
01:17 Why CMT Digital Backed the Luxor Team
02:54 What Bitcoin Mining Teaches AI Infrastructure
03:48 Luxor Cloud: Runners, Sandboxes and Code Review
04:51 Sandboxes for AI Agents
05:43 GPU Demand: Nvidia Sold Out for the Year
07:12 Compute Derivatives and Liquidity for AI Markets
08:12 Luxor’s Full-Stack Compute Ecosystem
10:24 Why Luxor Chose Strategic Investors
12:08 Bitcoin Mining Is Still a Core Pillar
#Bitcoin #BTC #BitcoinMining #Luxor #EthanVera #SamHallene #CMTDigital #AI #AICompute #AIInfrastructure #GPU #Nvidia #AIAgents #DataCenters #ComputeDerivatives #BitcoinMiners #Compute #EnergyGrid #BMTV #BitcoinMagazine
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Luxor Announces $16M Funding Round to Scale AI Compute, Derivatives first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
Galaxy Asset Management: “Now Is The Time” to Buy Bitcoin
“We believe the bottom is in.” That’s the call from Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn. Bitcoin closed back above its 50-week moving average the week of September 20 and has kept that trend, and Galaxy notes that the four prior reclaims after 20-plus weeks below never closed more than 8.4% under the reclaim level in the following year. Here’s why the whole call comes down to the 50-week moving average.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Galaxy Asset Management: “Now Is The Time” to Buy Bitcoin first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
Samara Asset Group CEO: Bitcoin Treasury Companies a “Disservice to Shareholders”
A CEO whose company holds Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve says he hates the term “Bitcoin treasury company,” and that the market is rejecting every pure treasury play except Strategy. Patrick Lowry of Samara Asset Group joins Grace Remington and Sean Hagan to explain why “digital gold” was “stupid marketing” that turned Bitcoin into an investment instead of money, and why that framing is exactly why Bitcoin dips every time the Fed talks about hiking. He lays out how Samara uses Bitcoin as working capital instead, parking venture fund commitments in it and liquidating on capital calls regardless of price.
Chapters:
0:00 “I Hate the Term Bitcoin Treasury Company”: The Market Is Rejecting Pure Plays
1:05 Why “Digital Gold” Was Stupid Marketing That Made Bitcoin an Investment
2:13 Hold vs. Use: How Samara Runs Bitcoin as Working Capital for 20+ Funds
3:59 Capital Calls Explained: Parking VC Commitments in Bitcoin Across Halving Cycles
7:17 The Hurdle Rate Problem: Why Holding Bitcoin Can Be a Disservice to Shareholders
11:46 MSCI’s Non-Operating Company Decision and the 1940 Act Loophole
13:37 Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP: What Happens If Altcoin Treasuries Trigger a Backlash
15:21 Europe Went Backwards: BaFin, the First Bitcoin ETP and Post-Merkel Overregulation
20:20 France’s Bond Crisis and Why Germany Won’t Bail Out the French
23:30 What Rising Sovereign Yields Mean for Bitcoin and Why It Dips on Fed Hikes
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Samara Asset Group CEO: Bitcoin Treasury Companies a “Disservice to Shareholders” first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin Price “Climbing the Wall of Worry” – Early Signs of Bull Market | Michael Sullivan
Bitcoin is holding near $80K, yet the crowd has never seemed less excited and that might be the most bullish signal of all. Michael Sullivan, software engineer and author of Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly, breaks down what language-based sentiment data says about this market. He explains why excitement, conviction and desire are washed out to levels he compares to 2015, and why that looks like the early stages of a disbelief rally.
Chapters:
00:00 Michael Sullivan on Bitcoin and Currency Decay
00:58 Bitcoin’s Pullback From $86K: Is This a Disbelief Rally?
02:10 Bitcoin Sentiment Compared to 2015 and 2022
03:50 How to Tell When the Bitcoin Market Is Overheated
05:05 Measuring Excitement, Conviction and Desire in Bitcoin
06:42 The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Narrative: Bitcoin and AI
08:12 Investor Psychology: Buying Near All-Time Highs vs. DCA
09:42 Bitcoin and Traditional Finance Growing Together
10:54 Why Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Are So Frustrated
12:52 How AI’s Deflation Strengthens the Case for Bitcoin
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Bitcoin Price “Climbing the Wall of Worry” – Early Signs of Bull Market | Michael Sullivan first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
BTC Hash Ribbon Signal Flipped: Bitcoin Miners Show the Bottom Might Be In
The hash ribbon recovered on August 26 and has held for 61 days. Historically, Bitcoin was higher one year later in six of seven counted recoveries, about a 72% edge. Sean Hagan breaks down the signal, the misses (15 of 231, notably April 2021 at -17%), the January signal still 12% underwater, and why the 30-day hash rate at roughly 1.1 ZH, up 13% from July, says the worst of the miner stress is behind us. Grace Remington asks the right question: if miners left voluntarily, is the signal still reliable?
Chapters:
0:00 The Hash Ribbon Explained: Counting Miner Capitulation Days Since 2011
0:26 A New Record: 223 of 365 Days in Capitulation vs. 141 in 2012
1:01 Why This Cycle Is Different: Miners Left for $100 Billion in AI Contracts
1:48 More Like the 2021 China Ban Than 2018 or 2022
2:14 The Timing Still Fits: Capitulation Peaked 56 Days After the June 30 Low
2:37 Hash Ribbon Recovered 61 Straight Days, Hash Rate Up 13% From the Low
3:20 Price Agrees: MVRV Above Its Average and Bitcoin Above the 50-Week
3:58 Is the Signal Reliable If Miners Left Voluntarily? Higher 6 of 7 Times
5:18 Could Hash Rate Come Back From AI as the Build-Out Hits Bottlenecks?
6:52 A Backward-Looking Chart With a 70%-Plus Directional Track Record
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post BTC Hash Ribbon Signal Flipped: Bitcoin Miners Show the Bottom Might Be In first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
A major Bitcoin-related accounting controversy has shaken investor confidence in Datavault AI, sending its shares down nearly 50% after the company revealed difficulties accessing cryptocurrency associated with a $150 million investment agreement.
We believe the development raises an important question for companies adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset: What happens when cryptocurrency appears on a balance sheet but cannot be transferred when needed?
Datavault AI’s latest disclosures reveal that the problem extends beyond cryptocurrency custody, potentially affecting the company’s financial reporting, liquidity assumptions, and ability to secure future funding.
Datavault AI (NASDAQ: DVLT) experienced a dramatic selloff on October 27, with its shares closing at approximately $0.067.
The decline followed revelations that the company had been unable to complete a Bitcoin withdrawal from an account maintained by cryptocurrency exchange Biconomy.
The issue originated in a September 2025 agreement with Scilex Holding Company, which committed to purchasing $150 million worth of Datavault securities using Bitcoin.
Under the arrangement, Scilex credited 1,309.04 BTC to Datavault’s Biconomy account through off-chain transfers.
However, when Datavault requested a withdrawal to an external wallet in June 2026, the transaction could not be completed.
As of the company’s October 26 disclosure, the withdrawal remained unresolved.
We see the central concern as one of control and liquidity: a recorded cryptocurrency balance does not necessarily mean a business can immediately access those funds.
The company’s financial difficulties became more significant when management and its audit committee concluded that several previously published financial statements should no longer be relied upon.
In its October 26 SEC filing, Datavault explained that Bitcoin associated with the Scilex transaction did not qualify for recognition as its digital asset.
Instead, the arrangement should have been recorded as a subscription receivable related to the issuance of company shares, presented as a reduction in shareholders’ equity.
The expected reductions in previously reported assets include:
These adjustments remain preliminary and could change as the company completes its review.
We believe the scale of the corrections helps explain why investors reacted so strongly.
One particularly important aspect of the situation involves how the cryptocurrency was transferred.
Rather than moving Bitcoin directly between independent blockchain wallets, Scilex credited the funds through off-chain transactions within Biconomy.
Such arrangements can simplify transactions, but they also introduce dependence on a third-party platform.
Datavault subsequently exchanged approximately 491.43 BTC back to Scilex for roughly $40.5 million in cash.
However, the remaining withdrawal issue has raised questions about the accessibility of the cryptocurrency associated with the original agreement.
We should emphasize that the disclosure does not establish that the Bitcoin was stolen or permanently lost.
The company has not provided a definitive explanation for the unsuccessful withdrawal.
For businesses exploring Bitcoin treasury strategies, the incident illustrates why custody arrangements and withdrawal procedures deserve close examination.
The consequences extend beyond accounting adjustments.
Datavault previously considered the Bitcoin balances a potential source of liquidity that could support its business operations.
Now that those balances will no longer be recognized as company-owned digital assets, management is reassessing its ability to continue operating under applicable accounting standards.
The company also acknowledged uncertainty surrounding the collection of amounts owed by Scilex.
We view these developments as particularly important because they connect cryptocurrency custody arrangements directly to conventional corporate financing risks.
Investors following the broader cryptocurrency industry will recognize that treasury strategies require more than exposure to digital asset prices.
Reliable access to funds, transparent accounting, and financial controls remain essential.
Several developments could determine whether Datavault can restore investor confidence.
First, we will watch for clarification regarding the Bitcoin withdrawal and any progress involving Biconomy.
Second, the company’s revised financial statements should provide a clearer picture of its assets, shareholders’ equity, and financial position.
Finally, we will monitor management’s reassessment of liquidity, financing requirements, and internal accounting controls.
The situation also raises broader questions for companies incorporating digital assets into their balance sheets.
As institutional participation expands across the blockchain sector, investors may increasingly scrutinize whether reported cryptocurrency holdings are independently verifiable and accessible.
For now, Datavault AI’s sharp stock decline serves as a reminder that corporate Bitcoin adoption introduces operational and accounting risks alongside potential financial opportunities.
Bitcoin Magazine
Deloitte’s Rob Massey: What Bitcoin Investors Need to Know About The Changing IRS Tax Guidance
Bitcoin tax rules have evolved, but the self-assessment system hasn’t changed. Rob Massey, who has advised on crypto taxes at Deloitte since 2012, explains why using Bitcoin as money creates “new muscle” for reporting, which wallet moves are and aren’t realization events, and why 1099s from brokers will never be the complete picture. Plus the one thing he’d ask Bitcoiners to advocate for, and it isn’t a repeal.
Chapters:
0:00 Where Bitcoin Tax Rules Stand: Self-Assessment and Barter Transactions
1:25 Broker Reporting, 1099s and Why They’ll Never Be the Full Picture
2:06 No De Minimis Exemption Has Passed: Report Everything, Small or Large
3:00 What Business Leaders Ask Now: ETFs, Leverage and Bitcoin Lending
4:07 Paying the Plumber Is Taxable and the IRS Sees Everything On Chain
5:38 What to Ask Treasury For: More Guidance on Lending, Character and Basis
6:51 Bitcoin Across Borders: No Tax Treaties, Withholding and Subpart F
8:50 How Multinationals Compare Bitcoin and Stablecoins by Payment Corridor
10:06 Unreported 2015 Pizza? Attorney, CPA, Complete Narrative, Come Clean
12:37 Proving Cost Basis After Years of Moving Coins,
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Deloitte’s Rob Massey: What Bitcoin Investors Need to Know About The Changing IRS Tax Guidance first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
More than 11.1 million Bitcoin (BTC), representing approximately 55% of all mined coins, cannot be linked to a known owner, according to an October ownership snapshot from Galaxy Research. The findings highlight how Bitcoin ownership remains difficult to identify despite growing institutional adoption, including spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate holdings, and professional custody services.
Galaxy Research estimates that approximately 11.1 million BTC out of roughly 20.1 million mined coins sit in addresses it cannot connect to an exchange, investment fund, government, or another known entity.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, said the findings suggest that individual investors may still control a substantial portion of Bitcoin through self-custody, where holders manage their own private keys rather than relying on exchanges or financial institutions.
The remaining approximately 45% of mined supply has been attributed to identifiable holders or groups. These include cryptocurrency exchanges, investment funds, government wallets, and early-mining addresses associated with the Patoshi pattern.
The figures show that expanding institutional participation has not eliminated the challenges of identifying who controls individual Bitcoin addresses.
Bitcoin’s blockchain records transactions and wallet balances publicly, but addresses do not automatically reveal the identities of their owners.
Research firms identify major holders by analyzing transaction histories and linking addresses to entities whose ownership can be established through public records, disclosures, or other evidence.
However, a single individual can control multiple wallets, while an institution may distribute assets across numerous addresses or use third-party custody arrangements. These practices can make ownership attribution more complicated.
The distinction is important because an unattributed wallet does not necessarily belong to a retail investor. It simply means researchers have not established a reliable connection between the address and a known entity.
Readers can follow related developments through Bitcoinist’s Bitcoin coverage.
Galaxy’s estimate does not mean that 11.1 million BTC have been permanently lost or are inaccessible.
Some coins may belong to holders who retain control of their private keys but have not publicly disclosed their holdings. Others could be held by unidentified institutions, private trading desks, or companies whose wallet addresses have not been linked to their names.
The total may also include coins that owners can no longer access because they lost their private keys or died without leaving recovery instructions.
Galaxy separately identifies approximately 1,123,658 BTC associated with the Patoshi mining pattern, which researchers link to early Bitcoin mining activity and commonly associate with Satoshi Nakamoto. That classification is based on historical blockchain analysis rather than independently confirmed real-world identity.
Institutional investors have become increasingly visible in Bitcoin markets through spot ETFs, corporate treasury strategies, and professional custody services.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust is among the identifiable institutional holders, alongside other investment products and government-controlled wallets. Yet identifying these large holdings does not provide a complete picture of Bitcoin’s ownership distribution.
The growth of regulated investment products has also created a distinction between direct ownership and investment exposure. ETF investors can gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price without personally controlling the underlying coins or their private keys.
For additional context, readers can explore Bitcoinist’s cryptocurrency coverage and its blockchain news.
Galaxy’s research highlights the limits of determining Bitcoin ownership from public blockchain data alone. Although transactions are transparent, connecting wallet addresses to specific individuals or institutions requires additional information.
The 55% unattributed figure therefore should not be interpreted as a measure of permanently lost Bitcoin, nor does it establish how much of that supply is held by retail investors.
Instead, the findings illustrate how Bitcoin’s original self-custody model continues to coexist with expanding institutional participation. As financial firms accumulate more coins, a substantial share of the mined supply remains outside the ownership categories researchers can confidently identify.
Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin Security Expert Jameson Lopp: Cyberattacks on “Exponential” Path
Bitcoin Core just changed its security policy because AI can find bugs with a simple prompt. Jameson Lopp explains the bigger trend behind it: two and a half months of exponential growth in vulnerability discovery, attackers adopting uncensored AI models first, and security researchers who “have not been able to get a lot of rest.” He breaks down the PHP remote code execution flaw, why the fallout was smaller than expected, and why security now has to be real time and built into the development pipeline instead of a once-a-year audit.
Chapters:
0:00 Bitcoin Core Changes Its Security Policy: AI Finds Bugs With a Simple Prompt
1:04 Google’s 500,000-Qubit Estimate: Physical vs. Logical Qubits
2:00 The Quantum Timeline: “If We Have Less Than a Decade, We’re Behind”
2:57 Why We Don’t Have a Quantum Computer With More Than a Few Hundred Usable Qubits
4:26 30% of Addresses Have Exposed Keys: Who Attackers Would Target First
6:27 Why a Quantum Upgrade Will Take Years: Taproot, Consensus and Untested Cryptography
7:54 The PHP Remote Code Execution Flaw Explained
9:41 The Real Trend: Exponential AI Vulnerability Discovery and Exhausted Defenders
10:54 Security Must Be Real Time: From Annual Audits to the Development Pipeline
13:19 Hardware That Can’t Be Patched, and Why Wrench Attacks Have Topped 700
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Bitcoin Security Expert Jameson Lopp: Cyberattacks on “Exponential” Path first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
UTXO’s Duke Waldrop: Bank of Japan “Liquidity Shock” Could Impact Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell to $79K this weekend, and this week both the Fed and the Bank of Japan decide on rates. Duke Waldrop, Head of Asia Markets at UTXO Management, joins Grace Remington and Sean Hagan to explain why a yen repricing hits Bitcoin first: macro funds with yen-denominated liabilities become forced sellers, and Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity is where they find the exit. He also breaks down why Metaplanet is trading below the value of its own Bitcoin, why possible removal from MSCI indexes on November 30 doesn’t change the thesis, and why the bet is on the Tokyo team’s execution.
Chapters:
0:00 Bitcoin at $79K, Fed and Bank of Japan Decisions, and Metaplanet Below NAV
0:29 How Asian Investors Are Learning the Treasury Playbook
1:16 The Yen Carry Trade and Why Bitcoin Sees the Liquidity Shock First
2:12 Who Sells First If the Bank of Japan Surprises: Overleveraged Macro Funds
2:58 Metaplanet’s Nasdaq Route Through Super League and the Second Liquidity Pool
3:46 Why Metaplanet Trades Below Its Bitcoin: Bitcoin Per Share Is the Metric
4:30 Asia Is “Way Behind” on Bitcoin Preferreds
5:32 MSCI Removal on November 30: Why It Changes Nothing Fundamental
6:57 Balance Sheet Caps, Delisting and Moon Inc.
8:45 Thailand, Astra’s Cash-Flow Model, Capital Group’s 11% and “The Moon, a Million”
This video is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in digital assets involve significant risk and may result in loss of capital. Both UTXO Management and BTC Inc., producer of BMTV, are owned by Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA)
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post UTXO’s Duke Waldrop: Bank of Japan “Liquidity Shock” Could Impact Bitcoin first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
Coinbase Institutional Co-CEO: Bitcoin’s “Second Wave” of Institutional Capital has Arrived
Seven of the largest banks in the world are now running on Coinbase infrastructure, and Brett Tejpaul, Co-CEO of Coinbase Institutional, says they’re having a “Kodak moment.” He joins Grace Remington and Sean Hagan to explain why the driver has shifted from Bitcoin ETFs to stablecoin payments now that money can move from a Citi account to USDC, across the blockchain in a second, and into a corporate account on the other side. He also gives a candid read on Bitcoin: the macro setup is great, the performance has been disappointing, and institutions aren’t yet treating it as anything but a tech trade.
Chapters:
0:00 Seven of the World’s Largest Banks Are Using Coinbase Infrastructure
1:19 From ETFs to Payments: Citi, USDC and Instant Bank-to-Blockchain Transfers
2:44 $400 Million an Hour in Stablecoins and the Banks’ “Kodak Moment”
4:38 Stablecoins Are a “Speck of Dust”: Payment Providers First, Then Banks
6:10 Agentic Commerce Arriving at the Same Time as the Big Players
6:49 Is Bitcoin Still a Leveraged Tech Trade? “Disappointing” Performance, Great Setup
8:44 Connecting U.S. Funds to Deribit’s 85% Options Market Share
11:06 The Second Wave: Net-New Entrants and Coinbase’s “Amazon to AWS” Pivot
12:57 Activating the Whole U.S. Through Coinbase Infrastructure
13:56 Quantum, 90% ETF Custody Share and “Safe Forever”
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Coinbase Institutional Co-CEO: Bitcoin’s “Second Wave” of Institutional Capital has Arrived first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Says
Galaxy Research believes bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that the asset has entered an accumulation phase, according to a research alert from the firm. “We believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” the report said.
Bitcoin traded near $80,000 at the time of the note, about 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above the June 30 low. The price would need to rise 53% to retake the previous record. The S&P 500, by comparison, sits within 1% of a record set on Oct. 6.
The report lays out four arguments: technical, positioning, fundamental and sentiment.
Galaxy uses two weekly moving averages to track bitcoin’s bear markets. The 200-week average has acted as a floor in each one, and the 50-week average has acted as a ceiling, according to the firm.
Bitcoin lost the 50-week average in November 2025 and stayed below it for 44 weeks. The June low tested the 200-week average and held, with the worst weekly close coming 4.7% beneath it. Price closed back above the 50-week average in September, and the week ended Oct. 18 was the fifth consecutive weekly close above that level.
Galaxy counted 13 such reclaims since 2011 and said the outcome depended on how long price had spent below the line. The four reclaims that ended spells of 20 weeks or more were higher a year later, by between 55% and 1,497%, and none closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level in the following 12 months. Of the nine that ended shorter spells, seven fell more than 25% within a year.
The firm said the halving cycle supports the same conclusion. Prior cycles bottomed on days 777, 889 and 912 after their halvings. Oct. 22 was day 916 of the current cycle. Galaxy said the gains that followed those lows (87x, 19x and 7.6x) have shrunk each cycle and that it does not forecast a repeat.
The current drawdown of 53% is the shallowest in bitcoin’s history, the report said, and the first in which price did not fall below the network’s realized cost basis.
The report identified basis traders and macro funds as the main sellers since the top. Asset managers’ net long position in CME bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of the all-time high, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data cited by Galaxy.
Leveraged funds’ net short position, which represents the futures side of the cash-and-carry trade against spot ETFs, shrank by a similar amount. The front-month basis averaged 7.9% annualized in the 30 days before the high and 4.8% in the 30 days to Oct. 21, which the firm said no longer covers the trade’s costs and risk.
Galaxy pointed to 13F filings to identify the sellers. Millennium Management, Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Capula, Farallon, D. E. Shaw, Schonfeld, Symmetry and Tudor cut their spot ETF holdings by between 29% and 100% between the September 2025 and June 2026 quarter-ends, a combined 68,000 BTC.
Because total holdings across all 2,200 filers fell by 48,000 BTC, the remaining institutions added in aggregate. Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm, Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council were among the buyers.
Spot ETF holdings dropped 11% from peak to trough while price fell 53%, and the funds have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, the report said.
Galaxy’s fundamental case centers on U.S. fiscal conditions. Federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on Oct. 20, fiscal 2026 ended with a $1.99 trillion deficit, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% on Oct. 5, its highest since 2007.
The firm argued that a government refinancing that debt at 5% while running 6% deficits faces pressure to inflate.
The report described AI-related borrowing, which Morgan Stanley expects to reach $570 billion this year, as a contributor to that pressure rather than a competitor for capital.
On sentiment, Galaxy compared the current environment to 2015–16 and 2018–19, when mainstream finance embraced “blockchain” and dismissed bitcoin. Both periods coincided with cycle lows. The firm said the 2026 version is “stablecoins and tokenization, not bitcoin,” citing bank pilots of tokenized deposits, the Senate’s failed cloture vote on the Clarity Act on Sept. 15, and Google searches for “bitcoin” at multiyear lows.
Galaxy set a tripwire for its view: a weekly close below the 50-week average, about $76,540, that is not regained within a month. It cited AI-enabled theft, including the $387.5 million Bitget exploit, while noting none of the incidents involved the Bitcoin protocol itself.
On quantum computing, the report said 7.1 million BTC sit in outputs with exposed public keys but that no cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists. It pointed to BIP-360’s merge into the BIP repository in February and Galaxy’s own $5 million quantum readiness commitment.
This post Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Says first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.
Login