CLARITY Act odds on Kalshi for the bill to become law in 2026 stood at 25% on September 13, down from 82% in February. At the same time, a separate Kalshi market put the probability of a U.S. Senate vote before October 1 at 94%.

The difference reflects two distinct questions: whether the Senate will take up the measure and whether the bill will complete the full legislative process and be signed into law, with a full-blown crypto bull market hinging on its passage.

The Senate is due to consider the measure on September 15. The Kalshi concerns whether H.R. 3633, formerly known as the CLARITY Act, will be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026. A vote on the motion to proceed is an earlier procedural stage, rather than final enactment.

CLARITY Act Odds: A Vote Is Not the Same as a Law

More than $8M has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract covering the bill’s enactment. The market’s implied probability fell from 82% in February to 16% on September 7.

Views on the Senate threshold differ. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in a CNBC interview that he was rather optimistic about obtaining 60 votes and characterized the negotiations as having delivered most of what both sides wanted.

Other estimates cited in the source report were more cautious. Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners lowered his estimate of the bill’s chances of passage from about 40% to 25%.

Galaxy Digital’s estimate in August was 10%. These assessments, like the prediction-market prices, address the prospects for legislation that must move beyond a procedural Senate vote.

Why 53 Republican Seats Isn’t Enough

In other CLARITY Act odds news, September 15 is expected to center on a motion to proceed, a step that authorizes debate on the bill rather than passing it outright. Supporters need 60 favorable votes. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so at least seven Democrats would need to join them to overcome cloture.

The CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. The bill is intended to establish a federal framework for the U.S. crypto market.

Under the proposal described in the source report, the CFTC would receive exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while the SEC would retain oversight of certain securities offerings and crypto exchange activities.

Three areas of disagreement remain. Several Democrats, including Kirsten Gillibrand, are seeking a binding ban on public officials holding crypto assets. Traditional banks have resisted compromise over stablecoin rewards.

Lawmakers also remain divided over protections for decentralized finance protocols and non-custodial software developers, with concerns that some language could create regulatory loopholes.

What Happens After September 15

If the motion to proceed receives the necessary votes, the legislation would move into formal debate. The outstanding disagreements over ethics, stablecoin rewards, and protections for DeFi and non-custodial developers would still need to be addressed. If cloture does not clear, the bill would not advance through that procedural step.

The legislative route is not the only avenue for crypto policy. The SEC and CFTC are already pursuing work on crypto regulation without waiting for Congress.

Under Paul Atkins, the SEC has abandoned certain enforcement actions and outlined a taxonomy of crypto assets, according to the source report. The CFTC is working on issues involving leveraged exchanges and DeFi.

Regulatory action can provide a framework outside legislation, but agency rules can also be changed by a future administration. The September 15 proceeding, therefore, remains important as a gauge of whether the CLARITY Act can begin Senate debate, while the prediction markets highlight the separate question of whether it can become law in 2026.

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Sam Bankman-Fried asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday to overturn his fraud conviction stemming from the collapse of FTX, following high-profile pardons of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and Binance co-founder CZ.

He is serving a 25-year prison sentence following his 2023 conviction, and his lawyers are also challenging an approximately $11Bn forfeiture.

The justices must first decide whether to hear the case. The court receives thousands of such requests each year and agrees to hear arguments in about 60 cases.

What Does the Petition from Sam Bankman-Fried Actually Challenge?

The petition challenges key parts of the case against Bankman-Fried, including the conviction and the forfeiture order.

• The conviction: His lawyers argue the trial court improperly prevented him from presenting evidence about whether FTX customers ultimately recovered their money.
• The forfeiture order: The defense argues that the roughly $11 billion forfeiture is excessive under the Eighth Amendment.
• A separate pardon application: Online records from the Office of the Pardon Attorney list Bankman-Fried’s request for a pardon from President Trump as pending.

Bankman-Fried was convicted on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy after a monthlong federal jury trial. In June, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit affirmed the judgment.

The appellate court described the case as involving the cryptocurrency exchange FTX and Alameda Research, the cryptocurrency trading firm that Bankman-Fried operated and controlled.

What are SBF’s Lawyers Saying?

His lawyers have argued that FTX and Alameda held sufficient assets to repay customers and that the court’s limits on evidence about those assets deprived him of a fair trial. The petition points to FTX’s bankruptcy plan, under which virtually all creditors were promised cash payments, including interest, to recover their losses.

Federal prosecutors have maintained that FTX customers were defrauded through Bankman-Fried’s handling of their money, including the misappropriation of billions of dollars in customer funds. The Second Circuit said the government’s trial theory was that Bankman-Fried promised customers their funds would be secure on the platform and used only for cryptocurrency transactions, but transferred customer funds to Alameda and elsewhere for unauthorized purposes. The court affirmed the district court’s judgment.

From Billionaire to Defendant: The Story of Sam Bankman-Fried

Bankman-Fried founded FTX in 2019 and grew it into one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. The company’s growth brought him wealth and public prominence, and he became one of the world’s youngest billionaires and a top Democratic donor.

FTX collapsed in 2022 after a run on deposits forced the firm into bankruptcy. Bankman-Fried was arrested later that year in the Bahamas, where he had been living, and was extradited to the United States to face trial. The Second Circuit’s account states that FTX filed for bankruptcy in November 2022 after it could not meet customer withdrawal requests.

Bankman-Fried has maintained his innocence. Prosecutors characterized the case as one of the largest financial frauds in history and alleged that he stole billions of dollars from FTX customers while presenting himself as a responsible philanthropist.

What Happens Next

The Supreme Court has not indicated whether it will take up Bankman-Fried’s petition. Its decision on whether to hear the case will determine whether the challenge receives further consideration.

The pending pardon application is a separate matter from the Supreme Court petition. The Office of the Pardon Attorney, a division of the Justice Department, lists the application as a request for a pardon after completion of sentence and marks it as pending.

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Ethereum is trading above $2,500, sitting right in the price line that determines whether this consolidation turns into a breakout or a fade. Meanwhile, Tom Lee just put a $6,000 target on the table for December. There’s a catch, though, and it’s a big one.

Lee’s formula requires Bitcoin to do something it has never done in a single quarter. A specific magnitude move that would need to happen before ETH’s own chart even gets a fair shot at that number.

As of now, the more immediate story is playing out on lower timeframes: ETH has been consolidating just above $2,450 after an August rally that took it from roughly $1,900 to above $2,500, one of its stronger monthly runs since mid-2025. Recent technical work shows the asset boxed inside a rising wedge beneath a $2,500–$2,550 resistance band, with analysts flagging that level as the trigger for the next leg.

Macro conditions aren’t helping clarify things. Oil prices pushing toward $100 a barrel rattled equities this week, and the Fed’s next move remains a live variable for risk assets. That backdrop matters for what comes next.

Can Ethereum Price Hit $2,800 This Week?

ETH’s price action right now is a study in patience. At $2,500, it’s parked just above the $2,438 weekly Fibonacci support and directly beneath the $2,550 ceiling that’s capped every recent attempt higher.

Barchart and other trackers show volume holding steady rather than spiking, which tends to precede a decisive move rather than confirm one already underway.

The scenario map is fairly clean. The best case is a weekly close above $2,550, which opens the door to $2,800, then potentially $3,000–$3,200 if the wedge breakout holds. Bybit data puts current volume near $12B, enough to support a genuine breakout attempt.

Ethereum (ETH)

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The more likely scenario is that ETH continues grinding between $2,438 and $2,550 while the market waits on a catalyst. However, a rejection at resistance sends ETH back toward the 20-day EMA near $2,320, with $2,161 as the deeper invalidation zone.

None of those paths gets Ethereum near $6,000 without Bitcoin doing its part first, but upcoming network developments could help the narrative, but they won’t override price action.

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LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as Ethereum Tests Key Levels

Anyone holding ETH from the $1,900 lows is sitting on solid gains, and that’s worth acknowledging. But here’s the uncomfortable math: a move from $2,503 to $6,000 is roughly 2.4x, on an asset with a market cap already in the hundreds of billions.

It needs the kind of multiple gets harder to generate at scale as capital increasingly looks for smaller-cap infrastructure plays where the same percentage move requires far less volume to materialize.

That’s the gap LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is positioning to fill. It’s a Layer 3 infrastructure project built to fuse Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into one execution environment, with Liquid, developers deploying once and getting access to all three ecosystems, rather than fragmenting liquidity across chains.

The presale is priced at $0.014953 with $963K raised so far. Core features include a Unified Liquidity Layer, Single-Step Execution, and Verifiable Settlement.

Research LiquidChain before the raise moves further.

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In Ethereum news today, a wallet can hold stablecoins but still can’t move them because Ethereum charges transaction fees in ETH. Without enough Ethereum to cover the fee, the wallet cannot submit the transaction.

Ethereum developers have scheduled a proposed fix for the 2027 Hegotá upgrade, although the design would not change the fact that the network will continue to charge fees in ETH.

ETH USD is trading just under $2,500, at $2,480, down -0.9% over the past 24 hours, although it is still clinging to modest gains of +0.3% in the past week. Daily trading volume sits at $10.8M, up from $9M yesterday.

Ethereum Developers Find New Path For Smarter Transactions

Ethereum's EIP 8141 authors have found a new way to make transactions more programmable.

The proposal uses programmable contract calls called “frames” for transaction features. These frames could handle validation, gas… pic.twitter.com/NnhSaraVLz

— BSCN (@BSCNews) September 7, 2026

Ethereum News Today: 2027 Upgrade Timeline

Core developers moved EIP-8141, known as Frame Transactions, to Scheduled for Inclusion during their Aug. 27 All Core Developers Execution call. The change gives the proposal a formal place in the planned Hegotá upgrade rather than leaving it only under consideration.

Hegotá is planned for 2027 and follows Glamsterdam, Ethereum’s next network upgrade. Ethereum groups protocol changes into codenamed upgrades, and Frame Transactions is now among the changes planned for Hegotá.

That status does not mean Frames is complete. The specification remains a draft; technical details can still change before deployment, and Frame Transactions cannot be used on Ethereum mainnet today. Implementation and testing work remain part of the path toward Hegotá’s planned deployment.

Why Frame Transactions Matter for Gas Payments

EIP-8141 addresses wallets holding stablecoins or tokens that can’t be transferred without ETH for gas fees. The proposal introduces “Frames,” which separate authorization, fee payment, and execution.

This lets a payments application cover the ETH fee or handle Ethereum payments on the user’s behalf, so the sender and fee payer don’t have to be the same. Validators would still receive fees in Ethereum, but this change allows users to transact without having to acquire ETH directly.

Some wallet systems already support sponsored transactions, and Frames aim to incorporate this functionality into Ethereum’s regular transaction flow. The proposal has ten authors, including Vitalik Buterin, who recently highlighted the updated EIP text.

How EIP-8141 Would Work

In other Ethereum news, the proposal breaks down transactions into separate frames. One frame confirms user authorization, another handles fee payments, and subsequent frames execute the operations.

This allows the account sending funds to differ from the account paying the fees. Actions can be grouped, so if a trade fails, the related approval can be reversed in the same transaction.

Additionally, this approach allows accounts to set their own validation rules, enabling key rotation or different signature schemes without needing a new address.

It also opens the door for accounts to adopt quantum-resistant cryptography, effectively introducing account abstraction elements into Ethereum’s standard transaction framework without necessitating asset migration.

Ethereum News: The Upgrade Does Not Remove ETH From the System

It is important to distinguish between abstracting gas payments for users and removing ETH from Ethereum’s fee system. Ethereum would still be paid in ether under the Frames design. The proposal changes how the fee payer is arranged; it does not eliminate the fee or replace ETH in the network’s existing fee system.

For a sponsored transaction, an application or another account would still need to handle the ETH payment. A user might pay an application in stablecoins, but the application would settle the underlying network fee in Ethereum.

In that sense, the proposal can reduce the need for an individual wallet holder to acquire ETH while preserving ETH-denominated fee payment at the protocol level.

Existing systems can already offer related capabilities through infrastructure such as ERC-4337, UserOperations, bundlers, and paymasters. What EIP-8141 proposes is protocol-level integration of similar programmable transaction features into Ethereum’s normal flow.

The remaining caveat is the proposal’s status. Frames is scheduled for Hegotá but remains a draft, and its technical details may still change before the planned 2027 deployment.

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Polymarket Ukraine odds for a Russia ceasefire by December 31, 2026, have crashed to just 13%, down from 40% yesterday. The nearer-dated October 31 contract was priced lower, at a 7% implied probability. Both figures depend on a resolution rule that requires more than a diplomatic announcement.

The Polymarket event resolves Yes only if a ceasefire takes effect by 11:59 p.m. Eastern European Time on the stated date and remains continuously in force for at least 10 calendar days.

A ceasefire announced on December 30 that ends before the 10-calendar-day requirement is met would not satisfy the market’s rule. That creates a materially higher bar than a diplomatic announcement alone.

On the other hand, Kalshi does not have an active market for a possible ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, opting instead for whether Zelensky will visit Russia this year and whether he and Putin will meet.

Polymarket Ukraine Odds for a Ceasefire: What the 13% Price Does and Doesn’t Measure

The pricing implies that a qualifying ceasefire by year-end remains unlikely, rather than simply indicating that talks or a temporary lull in fighting are unlikely.

Those are distinct outcomes under the market rules. A short pause, a partial agreement, or an announced truce that does not remain in effect for 10 full calendar days would not meet the condition for a Yes resolution.

The snapshot reports about $1.8M in total volume, $327,300 in liquidity, and $621,390 in open interest. The source also states that no trader count is provided and that the dated contracts share a single event structure.

As a result, reported market depth does not establish broad, independent participation, and prices across the October and December timeframes may reflect concentrated views or correlated positioning rather than separate assessments of each deadline.

The market summary identifies the European Union’s individual-sanctions rollover around September 15 as a near-term policy test of Western cohesion, pressure on Russia, and diplomatic room.

EU individual sanctions were extended through September 15. A renewal, loosening, or visible disagreement could alter expectations for negotiations and a durable ceasefire, although the source notes that policy signals need not produce a ceasefire.

Scenarios that Could Reprice the Contracts

The market summary says a year-end ceasefire would become more plausible if autumn diplomacy produced a framework that survived the 10-day continuity test, particularly after the UNGA period and sanctions-related signaling in September.

It identifies sustained talks, a monitored pause in attacks, or a formal settlement mechanism accepted by both sides as developments that could support such a framework.

Conversely, the summary says the December deadline could lose support if negotiations stall, sanctions harden, or the war escalates into winter.

Its October analysis similarly describes a fast diplomatic breakthrough around UNGA week and a shift in EU sanctions politics as factors that could be needed to reach the earlier deadline.

The EU’s individual sanctions rollover, with listings extended through September 15, remains a policy checkpoint noted in the market summary. The UN General Assembly’s high-level week follows shortly afterward and may provide a concentrated period for diplomatic signaling or initiatives.

New participation or large position changes on the Polymarket Ukraine odds of a ceasefire could also move reported odds independently of real-world developments.

Because the breadth of participation cannot be verified from the available data, market prices should be read alongside its specific resolution rules, shared event structure, liquidity, and the possibility of concentrated positioning.

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In Trump crypto news, US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far above the roughly 65,000 economists had expected, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

Bitcoin’s reaction was immediate: the asset slid from above $81,000 into a range spanning the high-$78,000s to low-$80,000s as traders repriced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve policy.

The question now is whether a single strong report derails a rally that institutional flows have spent weeks rebuilding, or simply adds uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting.

Why the Jobs Report Revived Rate-Hike Bets

August’s payroll growth was well above the roughly 31,000 average monthly gain recorded over the trailing 12 months, marking a sharp rebound from the softer hiring seen earlier in the summer.

That kind of acceleration weakens the case for immediate rate cuts and gives the Fed more reason to hold, or potentially tighten, policy at its next meeting.

Traders responded by increasing expectations that the Fed could raise rates rather than cut them, a repricing that showed up quickly in Bitcoin’s price action.

The shift reflects market expectations ahead of the meeting rather than a policy decision, but those expectations can influence risk assets before the Federal Open Market Committee delivers its verdict.

Trump Crypto News: Lower-Rate Push Meets a Hawkish Data Signal

Donald Trump used Truth Social to press the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing that the United States had become a stronger credit and should have lower borrowing costs. He also criticized the Fed Board’s approach and called on it to act patriotically.

The market’s reaction moved in the opposite direction. A stronger labor market is typically read as reducing the urgency for cuts, and traders raised rate-hike expectations after the report rather than pricing in the easing Trump was seeking.

Why Bitcoin Is Exposed to the Fed Debate

Bitcoin’s sensitivity to Fed policy has been on display through the summer. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech sent Bitcoin down to $77,000 and pushed rate-hike odds to 57%, illustrating how policy language can move prices before an actual decision.

That reversed on September 3, when Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s more neutral remarks triggered a 5% rally in Bitcoin and coincided with $730.8M in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

Rate-hike odds subsequently fell toward 50%, leaving markets close to a coin toss between a hike and a hold heading into the jobs report, even with Trump putting pressure on the Fed via his crypto social media platform.

The inflow figure is notable because institutional demand continued even as rate expectations shifted. The August jobs numbers moved sentiment back toward the hawkish side, but it did not change the recently strengthened ETF flows.

Trump Crypto News: What the September Fed Meeting Could Mean for Bitcoin

In other Trump crypto news, the September 15–16 meeting is the next decision point, while the period leading up to it remains focused on adjusting expectations.

If strong labor data keeps rate-hike expectations elevated into the meeting, restrictive policy would remain the central concern for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.

An unexpected cut could trigger a sharper Bitcoin rally, given the recent strengthening in institutional ETF flows. However, a cut prompted by a serious economic slowdown would carry a different signal.

Past scenarios indicate that crypto could initially sell off if easing is tied to visible economic deterioration rather than a more favorable policy backdrop.

For now, markets remain close to a genuine toss-up between a hike and a hold, with the August jobs report tilting sentiment toward the hawkish side without settling the outcome.

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Today’s Bitcoin price prediction sits at $63,500, down around -0.6% on the day, and is still unable to clear the $65,000 ceiling that’s capped every rally attempt this month. Whales are quietly distributing. Volatility has gone flat, and there’s a level below that could get tested sooner than bulls want.

A wallet tied to Paxos offloaded another 800 BTC (roughly $50.72M) through Wintermute, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain, the same entity that’s now sold 2,500 BTC over two months, close to $154M total.

Analyst Ted Pillows flagged that BTC couldn’t hold above $65,000 even as stocks and metals climbed, calling momentum “fading” and pointing to $60,500–$61,000 as the next likely test zone.

That kind of grinding, steady sell pressure rarely triggers a crash on its own. But paired with thinning spot volume and a market waiting on the next CPI print for Fed-rate-cut clues, it’s the kind of setup that punishes complacent longs.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC USD Hit $65,000 This Week?

BTC is trading at $63,500, down -0.6% in 24 hours, still boxed inside the $62,000–$66,000 range that’s held since the July CPI release. Perplexity’s market data shows the pair consolidating rather than trending, with traders unwilling to commit ahead of the next macro catalyst.

CoinLore pegs immediate support at $62,238 and resistance at $65,059, with a 24-hour expected range of $62,388–$64,832, a tight band that mirrors the record-low volatility traders keep pointing to.

Bull case: a reclaim above $65,059 flips sentiment and opens a run back toward the low $70,000s. Base case: BTC keeps chopping inside the range while whale supply gets absorbed.

Bear case: a break below $62,238 support confirms Pillows’ thesis and sends price toward $60,500–$61,000, a zone option markets are already pricing in as a live scenario. Watch the range edges before assuming direction.

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LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as Bitcoin Tests Key Levels

A market stuck between $62,000 and $66,000 for weeks isn’t exactly generating conviction, and steady whale distribution doesn’t help. Traders sitting on BTC at these levels aren’t seeing much near-term upside without a range break, which is pushing some capital toward earlier-stage plays where the entry price hasn’t already priced in years of adoption.

LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is one of those plays: a Layer 3 infrastructure project fusing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment.

The presale has raised $938,525.41 at a current token price of $0.01489. Its Unified Liquidity Layer and Deploy-Once Architecture let developers build once and reach liquidity pools across all three ecosystems without redeploying contracts per chain.

This makes LIQUID a real technical bet, not just marketing copy. Those exploring exposure beyond BTC’s range-bound grind can research LiquidChain directly.

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This is not financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and presale investments carry elevated risk. Always do independent research before investing

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