Kalshi traders assign a 79% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the Wednesday, September 16, 2026, FOMC meeting, with 19% pricing in no change and less than 1% split between a 50-basis-point move or either a 25-basis-point or 50-plus-basis-point cut, according to Kalshi markets.

That’s a market-implied probability, not a confirmed decision. Our call is that the Fed delivers the hike and pairs it with a higher-for-longer message, a combination that could pressure Bitcoin even if the rate move itself is already priced in.

The tension for traders isn’t really whether the Federal Reserve hikes. At 79%, that outcome is close to consensus. The tension is whether the FOMC’s accompanying language locks in expectations for further tightening or leaves room for a pause, and that distinction is what typically moves liquidity-sensitive assets in the hours after the statement drops.

What Is Driving the Hike Call on Kalshi?

The macro backdrop gives the Fed cover to move. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose +0.4% month over month in August and +3.4% over the trailing 12 months, a re-acceleration from July’s +0.1% monthly print.

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.3% for the month and 2.4% year over year, still running well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Energy did much of the heavy lifting. BLS data show energy prices up 2.1% in August and 16.3% year over year, with gasoline alone up +3.9% for the month and +27.4% annually.

That’s a separate data point from the FOMC decision itself: the CPI release landed September 11, five days before the rate call, but it’s the clearest evidence the inflation fight isn’t over, and the strongest input behind the hike thesis.

For a deeper look at how that print maps onto specific price zones, see this breakdown of August CPI and Bitcoin levels.

Why the Decision May Matter Less Than the Message

A 79% probability suggests on Kalshi the hike is largely priced in, meaning Bitcoin and other risk assets often don’t react significantly to such anticipated outcomes.

Real market moves typically come from details like the statement’s tone, the dot plot, and any voting dissents, which current pricing doesn’t reflect.

Traders focus more on the Fed’s guidance than the actual hike, as a hawkish stance could tighten financial conditions and reduce risk appetite.

Conversely, signaling that the tightening cycle is nearing its end could change the market’s reaction to the same 25-basis-point hike. Essentially, traders are betting on which message the Fed will convey rather than the hike itself.

If the Fed Hikes, What Happens Next?

Three scenarios shape the near-term outlook, each representing forecasts rather than definitive outcomes.

Base Case: The Fed hikes by 25 basis points and issues hawkish guidance, likely pressuring Bitcoin and liquidity-sensitive assets, as this often strengthens real yields and the dollar.

Second Scenario: If the Fed hikes but clearly indicates it’s the final move in the tightening cycle, markets may view this as supportive for Bitcoin, turning a rate hike into a bullish signal based on the accompanying language.

Third Scenario: The Fed holds rates steady, currently assigned a 21% probability. This outcome would challenge the base case and likely create volatility, as it would be a surprise against strong hike expectations. The low odds of a 50-basis-point hike or a cut suggest limited potential for drastic shifts.

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The post Bitcoin Faces Fed Message Test as Kalshi Hike Odds Reach 79% appeared first on Cryptonews.

Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s CEO, said Bitcoin reaching $400,000 by 2030 is a reasonable target, and described the $300,000-$400,000 range as very likely to be hit within that window, in a CNBC Squawk Box Asia segment. The call is Armstrong’s personal read on where Bitcoin’s price could land, not a formal Coinbase corporate forecast or a consensus market call.

Armstrong is the CEO of the largest U.S. crypto exchange, and his outlook carries weight because it’s grounded in policy developments he’s directly involved in shaping, not a spreadsheet model he’s publishing for Coinbase clients.

In the clip, Armstrong walked through the CLARITY Act and what greater regulatory clarity could mean for the crypto industry as a whole, tying the legislation to the pace at which institutional capital moves into digital assets. He also said he believes the Bitcoin trade has already bottomed and expects upside as pressure continues to build in global bond markets.

That bond-market framing is the more interesting piece for traders parsing his logic. Armstrong is effectively arguing that stress in sovereign debt markets pushes capital toward scarce, non-sovereign assets, a thesis long-time Bitcoin holders have made for years.

Coinbase itself sits at the center of that flow, and Armstrong’s comments arrive as the exchange continues pushing regulators toward a clearer rulebook for digital assets, a topic covered in more detail in our look at how regulatory clarity could unlock institutional capital.

Neither the CNBC segment nor Armstrong’s remarks lay out a specific valuation model, a probability weighting, or a precise timeline for the bottom he says has already formed; the forecast is directional conviction.

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Why Regulatory Clarity Keeps Coming Up

The CLARITY Act has become shorthand in these conversations for the broader push to define how digital assets get regulated in the U.S. Armstrong’s decision to lead with it signals where he thinks the real re-rating catalyst sits.

His argument, as framed in the CNBC segment, links clearer rules directly to wider institutional adoption. The logic being that large allocators need defined jurisdiction and compliance guardrails before committing larger positions to Bitcoin meaningfully.

That’s a familiar setup for anyone who traded through prior Bitcoin price prediction cycles tied to ETF approvals: the asset doesn’t need the legislation to pass to rally, but sustained institutional flow tends to follow policy certainty rather than lead it.

What Happens Next for Bitcoin?

Armstrong’s comments don’t reference a specific pending vote or implementation deadline, so traders shouldn’t treat passage of any legislation as imminent based on this interview alone. The more relevant variable in the near term is whether Bitcoin can confirm the bottom Armstrong referenced.

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Until regulatory outcomes firm up, Armstrong’s $400,000 figure functions as a directional marker rather than a tradable price level, the kind of long-dated target that shapes positioning sentiment more than it dictates entries.

Whether it holds up depends less on Coinbase’s own roadmap and more on how quickly institutional capital and policy clarity actually materialize over the next several years.

The post Bitcoin News: Bond Stress and Regulation Shape Armstrong’s $400K BTC Prediction appeared first on Cryptonews.

Malone Lam, a 22-year-old Singaporean and recent Miami resident, pleaded guilty in a Washington, D.C. federal court to one count of participating in a RICO conspiracy tied to the theft and laundering of more than $245 million in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. He faces a maximum sentence of 20 years, according to court proceedings before U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly.

The case centers on an August 2024 theft of more than 4,100 Bitcoin from a Washington-area victim, executed not through a protocol exploit but through impersonation and credential theft.

According to prosecutors, two alleged co-conspirators posed as representatives of Google and the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange to manipulate the victim into granting access to his Google Drive and revealing security codes. That access allegedly let Lam siphon off the Bitcoin holdings in one move.

No wallet was cracked; no private key was brute-forced. The attackers simply talked their way past the human layer that sits in front of every custody setup.

Lam is one of 18 defendants charged in the case and the 11th to plead guilty. Prosecutors describe him as an organizer for a network of young men who ran a string of cryptocurrency scams starting in 2023.

From Bitcoin Laundering to a Month-Long Spending Spree

Authorities say Lam helped launder and convert the stolen cryptocurrency into cash, which then funded a fleet of more than 30 cars, including custom Porsches, Lamborghinis, and Ferraris, a $2 million watch, and rented mansions in Miami. Nightclub spending alone reportedly hit $569,000 in a single evening at one Los Angeles club.

The run lasted a month before FBI agents arrested Lam in Miami. Per the indictment, an off-duty law enforcement officer had tipped him off that agents were en route, though the arrest went ahead regardless. In a recorded jailhouse call cited in the indictment, Lam told associates the outcome had exceeded even their own worst-case scenarios for what getting caught might look like.

The mismatch between the crime’s technical simplicity and its financial scale is the real story here. Social engineering doesn’t require exploiting Bitcoin’s underlying protocol. It requires exploiting the people and institutions standing between a holder and their keys. Google Drive access and a leaked security code did more damage here than any blockchain-level attack could.

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What Comes Next

Judge Kollar-Kotelly had not immediately scheduled Lam’s sentencing hearing at the time of the plea. He faces up to 20 years in prison on the single racketeering-conspiracy count, with the remaining defendants in the 18-person case still working through their own proceedings.

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For traders and holders, the takeaway isn’t abstract: large balances sitting behind cloud-linked recovery methods, reused security codes, or support channels vulnerable to impersonation remain the softest target in the ecosystem.

Recovery of stolen funds, when it happens at all, typically comes through law enforcement asset forfeiture rather than any on-chain remedy, a process illustrated by past cases involving long-delayed Bitcoin recovery efforts tied to historic exchange failures.

The Lam case is a reminder that the weakest link in crypto security is rarely the cryptography.

The post Bitcoin Thief Pleaded Guilty: The $245M Social Engineering appeared first on Cryptonews.

In Bitcoin news today, a British investor, identified only as Chris, has recovered all 61 Bitcoin he lost access to more than 12 years ago after the collapse of the early UK exchange Intersango.

The holdings are worth roughly £3.3M. His individual claim was resolved through negotiation rather than a courtroom decision after lawyers assembled records to establish that the coins belonged to him.

Chris invested £1,500 in Bitcoin in 2011, when the cryptocurrency traded at around £2.94 per coin. He bought through Britcoin, which later became Intersango. According to CEL Solicitors, which handled the claim, he instructed the firm in January 2026, and the case was settled on May 28, roughly four months later.

Establishing ownership required historical bank statements, emails, exchange records and documents prepared for proceedings in US courts. CEL Solicitors has said more than 5,500 BTC connected to former Intersango users have been traced, although each claimant must establish ownership of specific holdings.

Bitcoin News Today: From Frozen Account to Negotiated Settlement

Intersango attracted thousands of users during Bitcoin’s early years before running into trouble in late 2012. Its website went offline in early 2014, and customers attempting withdrawals received no response. Chris found his account frozen when he tried to move his coins, which were then worth roughly £4,000.

After several unsuccessful attempts to contact the company, Chris eventually treated the holdings as lost. As Bitcoin’s value increased over the following years, he told LBC that watching the price rise was difficult after he had written off the coins. He tried again to recover the assets in early 2026 after his wife encouraged him to contact CEL Solicitors.

Ryan Sweetnam, director of financial litigation at CEL Solicitors, said the firm had to prepare documentation for US court proceedings before it could resolve the claim.

The process took time, but Chris’s individual matter ultimately ended through negotiation without a judge deciding the claim. The firm says the 61 BTC later reached a wallet Chris controls.

Chris has since transferred the recovered holdings to an FCA-regulated platform. He said he plans to retain part of the amount in crypto and convert some into cash.

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A Wider Pool of Stranded Coins

Intersango was not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, leaving Chris with limited options when the exchange stopped operating.

His case differs from a lost-wallet recovery involving a forgotten private key or password. The coins remained inaccessible because an exchange holding customer assets ceased operating.

The three Intersango co-founders have been involved in litigation over the platform’s closure. During those proceedings, it was alleged that one founder holds about 5,500 BTC, valued at around £500M, with at least part of the holdings potentially belonging to former customers. Sweetnam said the litigation acknowledged that assets connected to former Intersango users still existed.

Former users pursuing similar crypto recovery claims may need old bank statements, exchange emails and other records to support their cases. An email address originally used to register an Intersango account may also provide a starting point for tracing an account.

What Comes Next for Other Claimants

In other Bitcoin news, other former Intersango customers may pursue individual claims, but each will need to establish that the specific assets sought belong to them. Sweetnam said the process could take time even where there is an acknowledged debt and an effort to return assets.

The UK’s regulatory environment for crypto businesses has changed substantially since Intersango stopped operating, although the full authorization regime has not yet taken effect. The FCA’s application period for the new regime runs from September 30, 2026, through February 28, 2027.

The regime is due to take effect on October 25, 2027, when trading platforms, custodians, stablecoin issuers and other covered businesses will need authorization to conduct regulated crypto activities in the country.

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The CLARITY Act Section 401 could hand traditional banks direct authority to custody, lend against, and run infrastructure for Bitcoin. This is an opportunity spanning a $25.7 trillion U.S. commercial banking sector against Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion market valuation.

The scale gap is the entire bull case for Bitcoin-focused banking jobs, and it’s also exactly why the case remains hypothetical. The bill would permit financial institutions to custody digital assets, lend against them as collateral, operate nodes, and provide brokerage services without seeking additional regulatory approvals.

On paper, that opens a lane for banks to build out trading desks, custody operations, risk teams, and compliance functions specifically oriented around Bitcoin. However, the legislative reality is messier than the headline framing suggests.

The bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and has sat before the Senate since, with a cloture motion on the motion to proceed filed in August 2026, according to congressional records. It has not cleared the Senate floor and has not been signed into law, a status tracked in detail on the House calendar as the bill’s timeline continues to slip.

What does that mean for careers? The institutional expansion described in the bill is gradual and conditional, not an immediate crypto hiring boom. Most of CLARITY Act substance is aimed at altcoin securities classification rather than Bitcoin-specific market structure, which is why the Bitcoin provisions read more like defensive protections and banking on-ramps than a new operating framework.

What the CLARITY Act Changes for Bitcoin Professionals

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Two provisions matter most for people already building in Bitcoin. Section 605, labeled the Keep Your Coins Act, would give statutory backing to lawful self-custody and bar federal regulators from restricting personal custody rights. This is a direct response to the 2020 FinCEN proposal that would have forced exchanges to collect data on transfers above $3,000 to private wallets.

Section 604 would prevent non-custodial developers, node operators, and wallet creators from being classified as money-transmitting businesses, a boundary drawn in response to the Samourai Wallet founders’ guilty pleas in April 2026 and Roman Storm’s Tornado Cash conviction in August 2025.

The provision doesn’t reverse either case; it establishes a clearer legal footing for future open-source infrastructure work, which could reduce the liability concerns that have kept some developers away from non-custodial wallet projects.

Two other pieces of the House version didn’t survive Senate revision. The original language codifying Bitcoin’s commodity status was stripped out, though a July 22 draft reportedly restored it, and the House’s Anti-CBDC provisions were removed entirely.

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Forward Scenarios: From Senate Action to Institutional Hiring

Even if the Senate advances the bill, implementation is its own bottleneck. The CFTC would need to build out digital-commodity regulatory infrastructure largely from scratch, and it’s currently operating with a single commissioner while staff headcount has dropped 21% in a year.

The precedent isn’t encouraging on speed. The GENIUS Act, signed in 2025, missed its entire one-year rulemaking deadline across six federal agencies, and that’s a useful baseline for how long banking and market-access provisions might take to become operational even after passage. This itself is a dynamic laid out in coverage of the unresolved Senate vote and its remaining provisions.

If institutional adoption does follow, the sequencing is likely to run compliance and legal first, with Bitcoin trading, custody, and infrastructure hiring expanding on a longer curve behind it.

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U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $730.8 million in net inflows on September 3. BlackRock’s IBIT led the session with $454 million in net inflows. That was well over half of the total.

The result offers a fund-by-fund view of where net creations and redemptions were recorded for the day. The daily flow figures can be revised as late fund reports are received, so totals should be read as tracker data for the reported trading session.

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IBIT Bitcoin ETF Dominance Leaves the Rally Concentrated

IBIT’s $454.0 million inflow was substantially larger than that of the other funds reporting positive flows on September 3. ARK 21Shares’ ARKB recorded $137.7 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC recorded $74.4 million. Together, those three funds accounted for the bulk of the day’s reported positive flows.

Several additional products also recorded inflows. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust, listed as BTC in the tracker, added $48.8 million. Bitwise’s BITB added $24.8 million, Grayscale’s GBTC added $8.2 million, and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT added $7.7 million.

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The daily breakdown was not positive across every product. VanEck’s HODL recorded a $19.6 million net outflow, while WisdomTree’s BTCW recorded a $5.2 million net outflow. Franklin’s EZBC, Invesco Galaxy’s BTCO, and CoinShares’ BRRR each showed zero flow in the tracker for the date.

The concentration in IBIT is an important context for the $730.8 million headline figure. A large complex-wide total can include different outcomes among individual funds, and the September 3 data show that the largest contribution came from one product.

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What Would Confirm the Trend

One day’s flow data provides a snapshot rather than a complete pattern. The tracker shows that daily totals can vary materially from one session to the next, including both inflow and outflow days in its historical table. It also explains that a daily figure represents net creations or redemptions across the funds.

For readers assessing the September 3 total, the useful distinctions are the overall net flow, the distribution of flows among issuers, and the possibility of later revisions. The table below separates the reported fund-level results from the complex-wide total.

Coinfuty describes its tracker as covering daily creations and redemptions, total net assets, Bitcoin held in trust, and premium or discount to net asset value. It says figures are updated once per U.S. trading day and that a dash can indicate that a fund has not yet reported rather than a zero value.

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Kalshi is pricing a 25-basis-point September rate increase at 59% against 42% for no change. Other reported measures put the probability at about 60% to 68% before the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On the other hand, Fed rate-cut odds have dropped to just 1%, as all hope of a possible cut fades.

That range creates a clear question for risk assets, including Bitcoin. If the Federal Reserve holds rates while market pricing continues to favor an increase, the difference between the expected outcome and the decision could prompt a reassessment of bearish positioning.

A hold alone would not establish a bullish outcome; the market response would also depend on the Fed’s accompanying message. A hold, accompanied by a dovish speech from new SEC Chair Kevin Warsh, could provide a boost to the crypto market.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit Near-0%: Why Has the Hold-or-Hike Tension Intensified?

The repricing follows a public policy split. Trump said that US interest rates were too high and said he respected Kevin Warsh and his responsibility to make the necessary decision. He had previously said he would not have selected Warsh to lead the Fed if he wanted interest-rate increases.

Warsh’s Jackson Hole address emphasized inflation and indicated that policymakers still had work to do if price pressures were not moving toward the Fed’s 2% target quickly enough.

The rate market subsequently made a September increase its most heavily priced outcome. The current Kalshi market snapshot shows a total volume of $31.3M.

The reported probabilities vary by venue and measurement time. That makes the range more useful than any single reading: the central point is that markets had shifted toward expecting tighter policy less than three weeks before the meeting.

The Statements Driving the Repricing

Trump’s objection to prevailing rates sits alongside his stated respect for Warsh’s role, leaving markets to assess the Fed chair’s signals rather than the White House’s preference. Warsh’s inflation-focused message from his Jackson Hole debut became a key reference point for the September decision.

The shift in rate expectations also coincided with pressure across other markets. FinanceFeeds reported Nasdaq-100 futures down 1.19% to 29,163.25, Dow futures lower by 341 points to 52,899, and S&P 500 futures down 0.62% to 7,651.50 in Tuesday premarket trading.

WTI October crude was up 2.44% at $87.85, while Brent traded near $90, adding another inflation-sensitive input to the market backdrop.

With Fed Rate Cut Odds Slashed, a Hold Could Be Bullish for Bitcoin

The distinction between the rate decision and market expectations is central. A Fed hold would leave rates unchanged and would not, by itself, signal easier policy. It could be interpreted as a dovish surprise only if markets still strongly favored an increase immediately before the decision and if the Fed’s guidance did not offset that surprise.

For Bitcoin, that distinction means a hold could prompt a reassessment of positions built around a rate increase, but it would not guarantee an advance. A hold accompanied by language that keeps further tightening firmly in view could produce a very different reaction from a hold paired with softer guidance. The decision, the policy statement, and the broader interpretation of inflation risks would therefore need to be considered together.

The wider macro setting underscores that uncertainty. The 10-year Treasury yield was reported in a range of roughly 4.75% to 4.80%, with Trading Economics describing a fifth consecutive session of rising yields and the highest level since January 2025. Higher yields and oil prices were among the factors weighing on risk assets in the reported market moves.

Forward Scenarios Into the September Meeting

Three broad outcomes frame the approach to the September FOMC decision. If rate-increase odds remain elevated and the Fed holds with relatively soft guidance, the gap between market pricing and the decision could support a reassessment across risk assets, including Bitcoin. That would be the scenario most consistent with a potential short-squeeze discussion.

If the Fed raises rates, the outcome would align more closely with the probabilities reported by Polymarket, CME FedWatch, Fed funds futures reporting, and Trading Economics.

If the Fed holds while stressing that additional tightening remains possible, the apparent dovish surprise would be weaker. In either case, the relevant question is not only whether the Fed changes rates, but how the decision compares with the expectations that have developed since Jackson Hole.

Inflation developments, Treasury yields, oil prices, and the evolution of rate probabilities remain part of the backdrop into the September 15-16 meeting. The available evidence supports a market focused on a possible increase, rather than a single definitive probability or a predetermined reaction in Bitcoin.

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The post Fed Rate Cut Odds Slashed as Kalshi September Hike Bets Reach 60%–68% appeared first on Cryptonews.

House Republican leaders have removed the weeks of Sept. 21 and Sept. 28 from the voting calendar, cutting eight previously scheduled legislative days and leaving representatives with just four voting days before they leave Washington on Sept. 17. The shortened calendar sharply reduces the odds of finishing the CLARITY Act before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, even as the Senate moves toward its own procedural vote days earlier.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s office notified Republican members that leadership had scrubbed the weeks of Sept. 21 and Sept. 28 from the schedule. Leadership did not cite the CLARITY Act as the reason for the change, but the compressed session leaves little runway for the House of Representatives to process anything the Senate sends back.

The chamber passed its version of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, in 2025. That bill would split oversight of the U.S. digital asset market between the SEC and CFTC while setting registration rules for crypto trading platforms. It is the closest thing to comprehensive crypto regulation Congress has produced to date.

Senators have since built their own text with provisions absent from the House-passed version. If the Senate advances an amended bill, the House must either sign off on the changes or the two chambers must hash out a unified draft, and any agreed language still needs approval from both sides before it lands on Trump’s desk.

With representatives departing just two days after the Senate’s expected vote, the House isn’t expected to resume regular legislative work until after the midterm elections, and no emergency return or calendar revision has been announced.

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Pre-Midterm Odds Were Already Thin

Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine had previously placed the bill’s chance of becoming law before the midterms at around 10%. He is pointing to the limited number of legislative days and unresolved Senate negotiations.

Those talks have spanned presidential crypto ethics provisions, anti-money-laundering requirements, state enforcement authority, decentralized finance treatment, and stablecoin rewards. Now, Senate Republicans cannot clear the 60-vote cloture threshold without Democratic support.

Stablecoin rewards remain one of the thorniest sticking points. The Senate text would bar payments based solely on holding a stablecoin balance while permitting rewards tied to transactions or other activity, a distinction that matters for how exchanges structure yield products.

Banks argue that activity-based incentives could let crypto platforms mimic bank-like returns without carrying equivalent capital and liquidity requirements, while crypto companies say a strict ban would choke off legitimate revenue-sharing and dampen competition in dollar-backed payments.

The fight follows the GENIUS Act, which set federal rules for payment stablecoin issuers but left third-party distribution questions unresolved.

What Comes Next for the CLARITY Act?

The immediate checkpoint is the Senate’s expected Sept. 15 cloture vote, which requires at least 60 votes and would open the door to debate, amendments, and further procedural votes, not final passage. Given the House’s Sept. 17 departure, there’s essentially no buffer for a drawn-out Senate amendment process without pushing the bill past the election.

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If the CLARITY Act passes, Bitcoin could benefit from clearer and more predictable U.S. crypto regulations. This could encourage banks, institutions, and financial firms to increase their Bitcoin exposure. Greater regulatory certainty may also boost investor confidence and strengthen Bitcoin’s commodity status.

If the current Congress ends without a signed bill, lawmakers will have to restart the process from scratch next session. A post-election lame-duck window could theoretically offer another shot, but whether party leaders grant floor time will hinge on how the midterm elections reshape the balance of power in both chambers.

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The post House Calendar Cuts Leave CLARITY Act Facing Election Delay appeared first on Cryptonews.

Kalshi is pricing a 25-basis-point September rate increase at 59% against 42% for no change. Other reported measures put the probability at about 60% to 68% before the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On the other hand, Fed rate-cut odds have dropped to just 1%, as all hope of a possible cut fades.

That range creates a clear question for risk assets, including Bitcoin. If the Federal Reserve holds rates while market pricing continues to favor an increase, the difference between the expected outcome and the decision could prompt a reassessment of bearish positioning.

A hold alone would not establish a bullish outcome; the market response would also depend on the Fed’s accompanying message. A hold, accompanied by a dovish speech from new SEC Chair Kevin Warsh, could provide a boost to the crypto market.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit Near-0%: Why Has the Hold-or-Hike Tension Intensified?

The repricing follows a public policy split. Trump said that US interest rates were too high and said he respected Kevin Warsh and his responsibility to make the necessary decision. He had previously said he would not have selected Warsh to lead the Fed if he wanted interest-rate increases.

Warsh’s Jackson Hole address emphasized inflation and indicated that policymakers still had work to do if price pressures were not moving toward the Fed’s 2% target quickly enough.

The rate market subsequently made a September increase its most heavily priced outcome. The current Kalshi market snapshot shows a total volume of $31.3M.

The reported probabilities vary by venue and measurement time. That makes the range more useful than any single reading: the central point is that markets had shifted toward expecting tighter policy less than three weeks before the meeting.

The Statements Driving the Repricing

Trump’s objection to prevailing rates sits alongside his stated respect for Warsh’s role, leaving markets to assess the Fed chair’s signals rather than the White House’s preference. Warsh’s inflation-focused message from his Jackson Hole debut became a key reference point for the September decision.

The shift in rate expectations also coincided with pressure across other markets. FinanceFeeds reported Nasdaq-100 futures down 1.19% to 29,163.25, Dow futures lower by 341 points to 52,899, and S&P 500 futures down 0.62% to 7,651.50 in Tuesday premarket trading.

WTI October crude was up 2.44% at $87.85, while Brent traded near $90, adding another inflation-sensitive input to the market backdrop.

With Fed Rate Cut Odds Slashed, a Hold Could Be Bullish for Bitcoin

The distinction between the rate decision and market expectations is central. A Fed hold would leave rates unchanged and would not, by itself, signal easier policy. It could be interpreted as a dovish surprise only if markets still strongly favored an increase immediately before the decision and if the Fed’s guidance did not offset that surprise.

For Bitcoin, that distinction means a hold could prompt a reassessment of positions built around a rate increase, but it would not guarantee an advance. A hold accompanied by language that keeps further tightening firmly in view could produce a very different reaction from a hold paired with softer guidance. The decision, the policy statement, and the broader interpretation of inflation risks would therefore need to be considered together.

The wider macro setting underscores that uncertainty. The 10-year Treasury yield was reported in a range of roughly 4.75% to 4.80%, with Trading Economics describing a fifth consecutive session of rising yields and the highest level since January 2025. Higher yields and oil prices were among the factors weighing on risk assets in the reported market moves.

Forward Scenarios Into the September Meeting

Three broad outcomes frame the approach to the September FOMC decision. If rate-increase odds remain elevated and the Fed holds with relatively soft guidance, the gap between market pricing and the decision could support a reassessment across risk assets, including Bitcoin. That would be the scenario most consistent with a potential short-squeeze discussion.

If the Fed raises rates, the outcome would align more closely with the probabilities reported by Polymarket, CME FedWatch, Fed funds futures reporting, and Trading Economics.

If the Fed holds while stressing that additional tightening remains possible, the apparent dovish surprise would be weaker. In either case, the relevant question is not only whether the Fed changes rates, but how the decision compares with the expectations that have developed since Jackson Hole.

Inflation developments, Treasury yields, oil prices, and the evolution of rate probabilities remain part of the backdrop into the September 15-16 meeting. The available evidence supports a market focused on a possible increase, rather than a single definitive probability or a predetermined reaction in Bitcoin.

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The post Fed Rate Cut Odds Slashed as Kalshi September Hike Bets Reach 60%–68% appeared first on Cryptonews.

The outlook for the Digital Asset Market Act remains unsettled as the bill moves through the Senate process. CryptoNews reported that Polymarket CLARITY Act odds priced in a 60-plus Senate vote at 25%.

That market signal sits alongside broader industry optimism, but neither replaces the legislative record or establishes how the Senate will act.

The official record for H.R. 3633 shows that the House passed the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025, by a vote of 294-134.

The bill is now listed as having passed the House, while the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee is listed among the committees associated with the measure.

Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds: The Senate Record

Congress.gov identifies the Senate’s latest action as an August 8, 2026, cloture motion on the motion to proceed to the measure. The record documents that procedural step, but it does not show Senate passage. It also does not establish the timing or result of a future Senate vote.

That distinction is important when assessing commentary about the bill. A market price, an industry forecast, and a congressional action can each describe a different part of the legislative picture.

The official bill page remains the clearest source for the measure’s formal status: it has passed the House and has not yet reached the next completed status in the congressional tracker.

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What the Bill Would Do for the Markets

According to the Congressional Research Service summary published on Congress.gov, the bill would establish a regulatory framework for digital commodities. The legislation defines digital commodities as digital assets whose value derives from a blockchain.

The measure would generally assign the Commodity Futures Trading Commission responsibility for regulating digital commodity transactions, including digital commodity exchanges, brokers, and dealers.

It also sets conditions for trading a digital commodity on an exchange. In summary, a blockchain may need to be mature or have achieved decentralized control as defined by the bill, or an issuer may need to file specified reports.

The bill would also establish requirements involving trade monitoring, recordkeeping, and the commingling of customer assets. Its provisions address securities registration exemptions for certain digital commodities on mature blockchains, subject to annual-sales limits and other requirements described in the legislation.

The summary further states that the Securities and Exchange Commission would retain jurisdiction over specified digital commodity activities and transactions conducted by certain brokers and dealers on alternative trading systems and by national securities exchanges. Digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers would be subject to the Bank Secrecy Act for anti-money-laundering and related purposes.

Competing Views of the Bill’s Prospects

Coverage of the legislation has highlighted differing expectations about whether it can attract the Senate support needed to advance. A Yahoo Finance report described debate over the bill’s ethics provisions and noted that industry figures held different views on its prospects.

Those assessments are separate from the bill’s official status. The congressional record currently documents House passage, Senate committee involvement, and the cloture motion on the motion to proceed. It does not resolve whether the Senate will take a further vote or whether the bill will become law.

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In BlackRock Bitcoin news, the World’s largest asset manager has reduced the reported minimum for in-kind creations and redemptions involving its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from $25M to $1M, reports suggest that the change was reflected in an updated SEC filing.

This news comes as BTC USD is trading at $78,800, down -1.4% overnight but still up +22% over the past week following a huge rally that saw it climb from $64,400 to nearly $80,000, single-handedly reinvigorating the crypto market.

BlackRock Bitcoin News: What the Reported Change Means

According to FinanceFeeds, in-kind creation and redemption allow authorized participants to exchange Bitcoin and IBIT shares rather than settle those transactions in cash.

The report said the lower minimum expands access to the process for mid-sized institutional participants, including registered investment advisers, family offices, and smaller trading firms operating through authorized participants.

FinanceFeeds also reported that retail investors cannot redeem IBIT shares directly for Bitcoin and that the change concerns the fund’s creation and redemption process rather than open-market purchases of IBIT shares.

IBIT’s Reported Scale

BlackRock’s IBIT product page listed an indicative basket of 22.65 Bitcoin, with a basket amount of $1,788,793.04, as of August 25, 2026. The page also listed a net asset value of $44.7252 per share and a sponsor fee of 0.25%.

The product page showed Bitcoin holdings with a market value of $60,696,470,292.63 as of August 24, 2026. It listed 768,039.86710 Bitcoin and $18,840.14 in US dollar cash. BlackRock cautions that holdings are subject to change and that the values shown for holdings are based on a third-party vendor’s pricing.

For performance, BlackRock listed IBIT’s year-to-date NAV total return at -9.86% as of August 24, 2026. For the one-year period ended June 30, 2026, the product page listed a total return of -45.62%, compared with -45.48% for its benchmark.

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What to Watch in Future Disclosures

In other BlackRock Bitcoin news, FinanceFeeds identified the ratio of in-kind to cash creations in future quarterly disclosures as a measure to watch following the reported minimum change. A future filing could show whether in-kind activity changed during the period.

IBIT seeks to track the price of Bitcoin and offers exposure to Bitcoin through an exchange-traded product, according to BlackRock. The firm says investors should carefully consider the risk factors and other information in the prospectus before making an investment decision.

Bitcoin ETF Flows in August: BlackRock Leading the Way

US spot Bitcoin ETFs are having their best month in nearly a year. On Tuesday, August 25, the funds pulled in $314.37M in net inflows, marking a seventh straight day of gains. That streak has pushed August’s total inflows to $3.03Bn, putting the month just $390M behind October 2025’s record with a handful of trading days left.

The rebound has been dramatic. Year-to-date net outflows have been cut by more than half, down to $2.26Bn, while total net assets across the funds reached $99.05Bn and cumulative net inflows climbed to $54.36Bn.

BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant force, accounting for roughly 62% of Monday’s category-wide inflows on its own. The surge coincides with Bitcoin’s push toward $80,000, though the asset was trading near $78,880, down about 2% over the prior 24 hours at the time of the latest report- a reminder that even strong ETF demand hasn’t fully insulated price action from volatility.

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The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve made news on March 6, 2025, with an executive order that sets out how government-held Bitcoin may be managed and permits the development of budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin. The order does not establish an open-market purchasing program or specify an amount of additional Bitcoin to be acquired.

That framework has kept attention on the role that government demand could play alongside institutional and corporate interest in Bitcoin. It also provides the policy context for the $1.5 million Bitcoin bull case associated with Cathie Wood in reporting by TheStreet.

The March 6 executive order establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a separate United States Digital Asset Stockpile for government-held digital assets other than Bitcoin.

Under the order, the reserve is capitalized with Bitcoin held by the Treasury Department that has been finally forfeited through criminal or civil asset-forfeiture proceedings, or in satisfaction of certain civil money penalties. Agencies were directed to review their authority to transfer Government Bitcoin they hold to the reserve and report the results to the Treasury secretary.

Bitcoin deposited into the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is not to be sold and is to be maintained as a reserve asset of the United States, subject to applicable law. The order describes Bitcoin as having a permanently capped supply of 21 million coins and says the government holds a significant amount of BTC, without providing a total holdings figure.

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Authority to Explore Additional Bitcoin Acquisition

The order directs the Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce to develop strategies for acquiring additional Government Bitcoin. Those strategies must be budget-neutral and must not impose incremental costs on U.S. taxpayers.

The accompanying White House fact sheet likewise states that Treasury and Commerce are authorized to develop budget-neutral acquisition strategies. The directive addresses strategy development; it does not identify a purchase amount, schedule, or acquisition method.

The executive order treats the non-Bitcoin stockpile differently. It says the government will not acquire additional stockpile assets beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings or civil money penalties without further executive or legislative action. The Treasury secretary may determine stewardship strategies for that stockpile, including potential sales.

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ARK’s Bitcoin Framework, What the News Says

TheStreet reported that ARK Invest’s multi-scenario Bitcoin framework places its 2030 base case near $730,000 to $750,000 and its bull case at $1.5 million. The report described the bull case as resting on institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s fixed supply, and its emergence as a legitimate digital store of value.

Bitcoin’s 21 million-coin supply cap is stated in the executive order. The order also says that a fixed supply creates a strategic advantage for nations that are among the first to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Those statements explain why the reserve’s acquisition authority is relevant to the discussion of Bitcoin demand, even though the order does not set out an active buying program.

Bitcoin (BTC)

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Bitcoin is trading above $75,000 at the time of writing, after trading below $65,000 four days earlier. Most news confirmed that Bitcoin was also traded near $35,000 four years earlier before reaching $126,000 in October 2025. Those figures provide context for the scale of a $1.5 million long-term bull case, but they do not establish a future outcome.

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In Bitcoin news today, Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, argued this week that gold remains easier to use for everyday transactions than Bitcoin, reviving a long-running debate over the asset’s real-world utility.

The comments arrived alongside a sharper attack on Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), which Gerber warned could “nuke” Bitcoin if its leveraged accumulation model unwinds, according to a note shared with Benzinga.

Gerber’s utility argument centers on a simple observation: gold can be exchanged in far more physical settings worldwide than Bitcoin, even after years of industry claims about the cryptocurrency’s payment potential.

Trader Scott Melker pushed back on that framing, arguing that crypto-linked Visa and Mastercard cards already allow holders to spend Bitcoin at nearly any point of sale that accepts plastic.

That distinction matters for anyone tracking Bitcoin payments adoption, since card-rail spending routes through a custodian converting BTC to fiat at the point of sale rather than merchants accepting Bitcoin directly on-chain.

Bitcoin News: Saylor’s Leverage Model Draws Fire

Gerber’s more pointed criticism targets Strategy’s approach of selling equity to fund Bitcoin purchases. He questioned why an investor would accept diluted exposure at a premium to the underlying asset, a dynamic visible in Strategy’s stock, which trades at roughly 1.61x its Bitcoin holdings.

“The fact they can sell stock at some inflated valuation to then buy Bitcoin is crazy bad math for the investor. Why would you buy $100 of Bitcoin for $200?”

Gerber said Bitcoin’s periodic hard corrections could force Strategy into selling if its debt-funded structure comes under pressure, calling that scenario the mechanism that could “nuke” the cryptocurrency.

Strategy has countered that its shift toward perpetual preferred stock, which carries no maturity date, insulates the company from forced liquidations even in an 80% drawdown.

The company held 629,376 BTC worth more than $72Bn as of its latest disclosure, after adding 430 BTC for roughly $51.4M, yet its stock has lagged Bitcoin’s own price performance over the same stretch.

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Bitcoin Miners Betting Big on AI

In other Bitcoin news, Gerber also questioned whether Bitcoin’s network foundation is weakening as major miners redirect infrastructure toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.

That trend is documented rather than speculative: several listed miners have already converted mining capacity into AI hosting contracts, a shift detailed in coverage of Riot Platforms’ recent AI leasing arrangement.

Core Scientific, for example, has been converting a 300-megawatt Texas facility, once used for Bitcoin mining, into an AI data center campus, with colocation revenue now outpacing its digital-asset self-mining revenue.

CoinShares projections cited in coverage of the trend suggest mining revenue could fall from roughly 85% of total revenue in early 2025 to under 20% by the end of 2026 for miners with significant AI contracts, according to crypto.news.

That reallocation of capital doesn’t signal the disappearance of Bitcoin mining, but it does mean the economics increasingly favor AI hosting over pure hash-rate production, a tension that supports part of Gerber’s broader skepticism without proving his claim that Bitcoin mining AI conversions have permanently capped the network’s upside.

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In Bitcoin news today, BTC trades at around $63,500, down -0.6% on the day, sitting in a tight range while the market absorbs a fresh round of corporate treasury noise. Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich just killed a rumor that could have spooked holders, and the numbers behind his denial are worth unpacking before assuming this is a non-event.

The Japanese Bitcoin treasury company moved 5,014 BTC (roughly $322M) between custodial addresses over a 24-hour window starting Wednesday, triggering immediate speculation of a sell-off.

Gerovich shut that down directly: “This was a routine custody operation. No bitcoin was sold, and our holdings remain 43,000 BTC.” The entire transfer cost Metaplanet about $8 in network fees, underscoring how cheap it is to move nine-figure sums on-chain when you’re not touching exchange order books.

This clears one overhang, but it doesn’t rewrite Bitcoin’s broader structure. The macro backdrop still matters more than any single treasury’s wallet activity, and traders are right to keep watching whether other public holders face similar scrutiny.

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Bitcoin News: Can BTC USD Hit New Highs This Week?

BTC’s $63,769.56 print with a 0.27% daily gain reflects a market in consolidation rather than a trend. Volume hasn’t shown the kind of spike that typically accompanies a breakout, which suggests traders are waiting on a catalyst rather than forcing direction.

The $63,373 intraday low functions as near-term support; a close below it would open room toward the next demand zone, while reclaiming $64,000 with volume could shift momentum toward retesting recent highs.

Bull case: a clean break above $64,000 on rising volume drags in momentum buyers and squeezes short positioning. Base case: continued range-bound trading between $63,300 and $64,000 as the market digests treasury-company headlines and awaits the next macro print.

Bear case: a breakdown below $63,373 invalidates the near-term structure and reopens downside toward prior support shelves. For deeper technical framing, recent target analysis is worth a look before positioning either direction.

Prediction Market Bettors Give Higher Chance of $40K BTC Over $100K in 2026

In other Bitcoin news, cryptocurrency bettors are tempering expectations that Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 in 2026. Kalshi currently assigns only a 1.6% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 and beyond this year, down from a high of 91% in January.

Similarly, chances of BTC reaching $90,000 fell from 71% in early May to 2.5% as of this writing. Interestingly, the odds of Bitcoin moving lower were relatively higher.

Punters have priced in a 20% possibility of Bitcoin declining below $45,000, alongside a 15% chance of a drop below $40,000. Forecasts about Bitcoin’s price action have surged in volume even as the asset struggles through a drawn-out bear market.

Popular market analyst Alessio Rastani predicted Bitcoin would crash to $20,000 by the end of 2027 before making a sharp recovery.

On the other side, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said Bitcoin’s refusal to react to bad news, including BTC sales by Strategy and CLARITY Act delays, is one of the clearest signs the cryptocurrency winter is ending.

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This article is not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.

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In Ripple CLARITY Act news, the SEC is scheduled to vote on August 14, 2026, on whether to publish a proposal known as Regulation Crypto for public comment. The proposal would create a bespoke offering regime under the Securities Act for investment contracts involving the offer of crypto assets, replacing staff guidance and policy statements with more permanent regulations.

The vote would begin a formal rulemaking process if commissioners approve publication. A proposal released for comment would not itself be a final rule; the SEC would still need to gather public input, revise the proposal as appropriate, and bring a final rule back to the commission for consideration.

This move could be boosted by the Senate not making a decision on the CLARITY Act before the August recess, with the next meeting set for September. XRP USD is trading just above key support at $1, with the uncertainty creating indecision on the chart.

A Regulator Moving Where Congress Hasn’t

The three-member commission will decide whether to approve publication of the proposal for a public comment period. That decision would mark the start of rulemaking aimed at establishing more permanent rules for digital-asset firms.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has ranked crypto rulemaking as a top priority for the agency. The proposal follows a Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act that did not advance before the August recess, leaving the market-structure bill stalled.

Until now, the SEC’s crypto approach has relied substantially on staff statements and policy guidance. Formal notice-and-comment rulemaking, by contrast, is intended to produce durable, binding regulations once finalized.

What the Proposal Could Do as the CLARITY Act Stalls

Regulation Crypto is expected to provide an exemption that would allow qualifying crypto projects to raise capital without automatically triggering SEC registration requirements. The proposal may also describe circumstances in which the SEC’s securities jurisdiction no longer applies after the managerial efforts involved in an investment contract have been exhausted.

That approach could address a longstanding question in U.S. crypto regulation: whether an asset that initially qualifies as part of an investment contract must always remain a security. The SEC’s rulemaking could provide issuers with greater clarity about compliance at different stages of a project’s lifecycle.

TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote that the proposal could be the first in a series of crypto regulatory proposals following the stalled legislative effort. The SEC’s work also follows joint efforts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to create a taxonomy for crypto assets and additional rules relating to tokenized securities.

Why the Vote Matters for CLARITY Act XRP Readers

The proposal is described as a regime for qualifying crypto projects. For readers following XRP, the immediate significance of the August 14 meeting is procedural: commissioners are considering whether to publish a proposed framework for comment, not whether to adopt a final rule that day.

If published, the proposal would reveal further details about the expected offering exemption and circumstances in which securities jurisdiction may no longer apply. The expected framework could give qualifying projects a path to raise capital without full registration and could address the role of managerial efforts in an investment contract, but the final details would remain subject to the rulemaking process.

The Ripple CLARITY Act Bottleneck

With the market-structure bill stalled, formal SEC rulemaking is one of the primary avenues through which crypto offerings may be defined under federal securities law. The agency’s proposal is therefore expected to provide a clearer path for U.S. crypto policy while Congress considers broader legislation.

Atkins has also called for congressional legislation to establish guardrails around U.S. crypto markets. SEC rulemaking and congressional action can therefore proceed on separate tracks, with the agency’s proposal focused on the regulatory treatment of crypto-related investment contracts.

Read more: SEC open meeting notice, August 14, 2026

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