Bitcoin may be rallying but that doesn’t mean the bear market is over. Not yet, anyway.
A new report from asset manager Fidelity said that while bitcoin was behaving like it did in previous cycles, it could still hit a bottom in November.
Bitcoin started rallying in mid-August after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The asset’s price recently stood at close to $81,639, up nearly 30% over a 30-day period.
Some have since argued that bitcoin is out of its bear market. The coin touched a record high in October last year, hitting $126,080.
“Given bitcoin’s recent performance, the bottom could already have occurred in July,” Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, wrote.
“It could also drop again to make another new low in November or later,” he continued, adding that bitcoin cycles have historically not been precisely four years long, so they “aren’t reliable for timing the market.”
Throughout most of June and July, bitcoin’s volatility was particularly muted, and the coin traded below $65,000.
But that all changed in August after the Treasury Department’s announcement, which has since brought the so-called debasement trade back in the picture again.
To get an idea of where bitcoin moves next, Kuiper argued that investors should pay attention to what happens with the crypto Clarity Act. Proponents argue it could provide “greater regulatory certainty and support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem,” he wrote.
President Donald Trump in August urged lawmakers to get the long-awaited crypto market structure bill over the line, helping spur bitcoin’s run. The president called the draft “very, very powerful” after meeting with crypto industry bigwigs at the White House.
The digital asset industry has long called for clear rules on how regulators should treat bitcoin, stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin has been sitting still recently, and the coin’s volatility is now lower than 98.5% of all days in its 17-year history, according to asset manager Fidelity.
Writing on X, the firm’s digital asset arm said that spot trading volume was also at its lowest level since 2019.
Bitcoin’s price is virtually unmoved over a 30-day period, with some analysts saying the bottom is likely in. The coin was recently trading for $65,329, nearly 50% lower than the all-time high it notched in October 2025.
Update: BTC volatility is now lower than ~98.5% of all days in its history.
Meanwhile, spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019.
Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move… https://t.co/8ZXosxXFd5
“Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move once it breaks,” Fidelity Digital Assets wrote.
The asset manager pointed to a post from earlier this month, where it noted that while volatility was down, such “periods of compression don’t tend to last forever.”
Investment manager VanEck on Tuesday said that bitcoin’s thirty-day realized volatility had fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month and less than half bitcoin’s long-run average of roughly 80%.
It added that based on the length of prior cycles, the firm sees a bottom potentially forming anywhere between September and November of this year.
Bitcoin’s wild price swings have dampened — and 2025 was the least volatile year for Bitcoin, according to a K33 Research report from December.
The firm predicted that 2026 would see the biggest and oldest digital asset beat both gold and equities in terms of gains.
Following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024, bitcoin has become available to a whole new class of investors.
Now, more cautious retail investors — previously put off by cold storage — can buy the asset via brokerage accounts.
Institutional investors like sovereign wealth funds and banks are also able to buy bitcoin exposure via the ETFs.
As bitcoin’s market cap has grown, the asset’s volatility has come down significantly, and now experienced less wild price swings than in the past.
So far, bitcoin’s bear market is the shallowest it’s had in its 16-year history.
US spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded a third consecutive day of net inflows, giving ETH traders another sign that institutional demand is improving after a choppy stretch for the products.
Farside Investors data shows the Ethereum ETF group brought in $37.47 million in net inflows on July 21. BlackRock’s ETHA led the day with $52.79 million in net inflows, while Fidelity’s FETH posted $15.32 million in net outflows.
That split matters. The headline number was positive, but the flow picture was not evenly distributed across issuers. BlackRock continued to attract capital, while Fidelity saw money leave the product.
For Ethereum, the short-term message is still constructive. A third straight day of net inflows suggests demand is not isolated to a single session. But it is also too early to call it a durable trend.
TL;DR
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $37.47 million in net inflows on July 21.
BlackRock’s ETHA led with $52.79 million in inflows.
Fidelity’s FETH saw $15.32 million in outflows, showing the demand is still uneven across issuers.
Ethereum ETF Demand Is Improving, But Unevenly
Ethereum ETFs have had a more complicated start than Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin’s spot ETF launch quickly became one of the market’s dominant demand stories. Ethereum’s products have had to fight harder for attention, partly because ETH sits in a different part of the market structure. It is not only a monetary asset or store-of-value trade. It is also tied to staking, DeFi, stablecoins, Layer 2 networks, and smart contract activity.
That makes the ETF story more nuanced.
Investors are not just asking whether ETH is “digital gold.” They are asking whether Ethereum remains the core settlement layer for crypto finance and whether an ETF is the cleanest way to express that view.
A third day of inflows helps answer part of that question. It shows that investors are still allocating through the ETF wrapper, even after periods of weaker demand.
But the issuer split is important. BlackRock pulling in more than $50 million while Fidelity saw outflows suggests capital is concentrating around the largest and most liquid products. That is common in ETF markets. Larger issuers often attract the deepest flows because institutions prefer liquidity, brand familiarity, and tight trading conditions.
For smaller or less dominant products, that can make the competitive environment harder.
Why BlackRock’s ETHA Matters
BlackRock’s ETHA remains one of the key products to watch because BlackRock has already shaped the Bitcoin ETF market.
When BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF began attracting large flows, traders treated that as a major sign of institutional demand. The same logic applies to Ethereum, although the scale is different.
If ETHA continues to lead inflows, the market may start viewing BlackRock’s Ethereum product as the main institutional gateway into ETH exposure.
That would not automatically mean ETH price strength. ETF inflows are only one part of the market. Spot demand, derivatives positioning, staking dynamics, macro liquidity, and broader risk appetite all matter.
Still, ETF flows are visible, trackable, and easy for traders to use as a sentiment gauge.
That is why a positive three-day streak gets attention.
Fidelity Outflows Keep The Picture Balanced
The Fidelity outflow is the part of the data that prevents the story from becoming too bullish.
A healthy ETF market can still have mixed flows across issuers. Money can move from one product to another, or investors can reduce exposure in one fund while adding elsewhere. But outflows from a major issuer show that demand is not broad-based across the full category.
That is a reminder to keep the data in proportion.
The Ethereum ETF group had a positive day. BlackRock led strongly. The streak extended. But this is not the same as saying all Ethereum ETFs are seeing synchronized demand.
The market will need more sessions before the trend becomes more convincing.
ETH Traders Need More Than Three Days
For ETH traders, the key question is whether ETF demand can become persistent.
A few days of inflows can support sentiment, especially when they come during a market that is already watching institutional products closely. But sustained inflows over several weeks would carry more weight.
The ETF story also needs to be read alongside Ethereum’s broader fundamentals.
Ethereum transaction activity, Layer 2 usage, stablecoin settlement, DeFi liquidity, and staking demand all feed into the market’s long-term view of ETH. ETFs give traditional investors access to the asset, but they do not replace the need for Ethereum itself to remain useful on-chain.
That is why the ETF data is important but not complete.
For now, the July 21 inflow number is a positive signal. BlackRock’s ETHA continues to show institutional pull, and the group has extended its inflow streak to three days.
The next test is whether that demand can continue without relying on one issuer to carry the category.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Extend For Second Week, But Recovery Remains Fragile
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a second consecutive week of net inflows, offering a modest sign that institutional demand is stabilizing after a difficult stretch of outflows.
Farside data shows the products brought in approximately $75.7 million during the trading week of July 13–17. Friday was the stronger session, with net inflows of $132.3 million. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $136.5 million of inflows on the day, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw $4.2 million in outflows.
That is a constructive shift, but it is not a blowout.
The inflows suggest buyers are returning, yet the size of the recovery remains modest compared with the larger withdrawals seen earlier in the cycle. For Bitcoin, the signal is positive but still needs follow-through.
TL;DR
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a second straight week of net inflows.
Weekly inflows were about $75.7 million, with Friday adding $132.3 million.
The recovery is encouraging, but still small compared with prior outflow pressure.
ETF Flows Still Matter For Bitcoin
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the clearest windows into institutional demand.
They do not capture every buyer. They do not explain every price move. But they show how capital is moving through regulated products that traditional investors can access easily. When ETF flows are strong, Bitcoin often benefits from a cleaner demand story. When flows turn negative, the market starts asking whether institutional appetite is cooling.
That is why the latest two-week inflow streak matters.
After a period of outflows, even a modest return to positive flows can improve sentiment. It shows that investors have not abandoned the products and that buyers are still willing to allocate after weakness.
The strongest recent data point was Friday’s $132.3 million net inflow. BlackRock’s IBIT remained the standout product, while Fidelity’s FBTC posted a small outflow. That split matters because ETF demand is not evenly distributed across issuers.
IBIT has continued to dominate much of the flow conversation, which reinforces BlackRock’s position in the market.
Why The Recovery Is Still Fragile
The numbers are positive, but they need context.
A $75.7 million weekly inflow is helpful, but it is not enough by itself to erase concerns from earlier outflow periods. ETF investors can be patient, but they can also move quickly when macro conditions tighten, volatility rises, or Bitcoin loses momentum.
That means the market needs more than one or two positive weeks before calling this a durable recovery.
Bitcoin is also dealing with multiple forces at once. ETF flows are important, but so are interest-rate expectations, dollar strength, liquidity conditions, corporate treasury demand, derivatives positioning, and broader risk appetite.
ETF inflows can support the price, but they do not create a floor on their own.
The next few sessions will be important because they will show whether Friday’s inflow was a one-day rebound or the start of a stronger allocation trend.
BlackRock Remains The Flow Leader
IBIT’s role continues to stand out.
BlackRock’s fund has become the main institutional reference point for spot Bitcoin ETF demand. When IBIT attracts inflows, traders take notice because it suggests capital is still moving through one of the market’s largest and most accessible regulated products.
That does not mean other issuers are irrelevant. Fidelity, Bitwise, Ark, and others still contribute to the market’s overall flow picture. But IBIT has become the product many traders watch first.
The July 17 data reinforces that pattern. IBIT’s inflows were large enough to offset weakness elsewhere and turn the overall day positive.
For Bitcoin bulls, that is useful. It shows that demand has not disappeared. For bears, the question is whether inflows remain concentrated in one product while broader demand stays uneven.
Both readings are reasonable.
Bitcoin Needs Sustained Demand
The ETF market is now part of Bitcoin’s core structure.
In earlier cycles, traders focused mainly on exchange balances, miner flows, derivatives funding, and macro liquidity. Those still matter. But ETF flows have added a regulated demand channel that can move sentiment quickly.
The current inflow streak gives Bitcoin a better backdrop than it had during the outflow period. But the word “streak” is doing a lot of work. Two weeks is encouraging, not decisive.
If inflows continue, Bitcoin’s institutional demand narrative strengthens again. If they stall, traders may treat the recent move as a temporary pause in a choppier allocation cycle.
For now, the message is measured optimism.
Buyers are returning to US spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock. The recovery is real, but still early. Bitcoin needs continued inflows to turn this from a relief signal into a stronger market trend.
This article is based on Farside Investors Bitcoin ETF flow data.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
This report is based on information released by Farside Investors. at Farside Investors
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