A judge in Seattle issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, finding that Washington state is likely to prove that the fast-growing prediction market is running illegal online gambling.
The ruling by King County Superior Court Judge John McHale, issued Monday, does not immediately halt Kalshi’s operations in the state. McHale granted the injunction in the case brought by Washington AG Nick Brown, but deferred the specifics until early next month.
McHale rejected Kalshi’s argument that oversight by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state gambling laws. That has been the basis of Kalshi’s defense against regulators across the country. Washington is the latest state where a court has shot it down.
Kalshi quickly pushed back on the ruling.
“States don’t have jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets. Many courts — including the Third Circuit — have made this clear,” spokesperson Jacki McGavick said in a statement. “We’re disappointed to see Washington State continue wasting taxpayer dollars.”
In his ruling, McHale said Kalshi “willfully ignored” a December 2025 notice from the Washington State Gambling Commission that event-based contracts were not authorized in the state, and cited a Kalshi ad showing a text exchange where one user tells another: “I found a way to bet on the NFL even though we live in Washington.”
Kalshi’s platform lets users bet “yes” or “no” on thousands of events across sports, elections, entertainment, and so-called “mention markets” — wagers on whether public figures will say specific words. The New York-based company, which markets itself as a federally regulated “prediction market,” takes a transaction fee on each bet.
Washington has some of the strictest gambling laws in the country: the legislature banned internet gambling in 2006, and while the state allows a lottery, horse racing, and tribal-casino gambling, online betting is broadly prohibited and sports wagers are legal only in person on tribal lands.
The order requires Kalshi to preserve all records tied to Washington users, including logs, communications, geolocation data and marketing materials.
The specific operational terms of the injunction are still being determined: McHale gave both sides until Aug. 3 to submit proposed language, with a full order to follow by Aug. 5.
Seattle-area startups raised $2.7 billion in venture funding through the first half of 2026, across 163 deals, down about 40% from $4.5 billion in 210 deals during the same period a year ago.
The figures come from the recently released PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor report for Q2 2026. The decline in capital reflects fewer deals across the board in the Seattle region, with much of the funding going to a handful of large rounds for energy, cybersecurity, and space startups.
Here is the region’s top 5 for the second quarter, as tracked in the report:
Gradial raised $65 million for its agentic enterprise software platform.
Against the AI grain: In Q2 2026 specifically, startups in the Seattle area closed 85 deals totaling $1.5 billion. That was down from 101 deals and $2.3 billion in the same quarter a year ago, but up from Q1 2026, which PitchBook revised to 78 deals and $1.2 billion as part of its regular data updates.
Heavy infrastructure investments by Microsoft and Amazon have helped to establish the Seattle area as an AI hub, but the region’s pure-play AI startups, on the whole, aren’t seeing investment on the same scale as some of their peers in Silicon Valley and other tech hubs around the country.
That creates a disconnect with the larger U.S. venture capital market. AI companies accounted for 86% of all U.S. venture dollars in the first half of the year, according to the PitchBook-NVCA data.
Nationally, it was a record half: U.S. startups raised $412.7 billion through June, already surpassing the full-year record of $358.6 billion set in 2021. But the number is misleading. Deals of $100 million or more accounted for 87.5% of the total, and AI companies captured 86 cents of every venture dollar.
OpenAI and Anthropic alone absorbed roughly 43% of all global venture capital in the first half of the year, by one estimate. The Bay Area, home to both, pulled in $319 billion, about three times its H1 2025 total.
Strip out those two companies and the national picture looks very different. Seed funding fell 27% nationally in the first half, and first-time fund formation is on pace for its lowest year since 2016.
Regional trends: In that way, what’s happening in the Seattle area reflects the current realities of the market. However, the region is also slipping relative to its peers in the latest numbers.
Among the 10 largest U.S. metro areas for venture funding, Seattle ranked seventh by capital invested in the first half of the year, down from fifth in H1 2025. By deal count, the region was last in the top 10.
The data used in this analysis covers the Seattle-Tacoma combined statistical area (CSA), a broader regional boundary that includes communities beyond the core metro region.
Political climate: Washington’s shifting tax and economic landscape adds another variable.
The state now taxes capital gains at up to 9.9%, a new millionaires’ tax takes effect in 2028, and legislators this year floated taxing the federal QSBS exemption that startup founders and early employees rely on when they sell shares at exit. That bill didn’t pass, but generated enough alarm to cause a backlash from startup community leaders and investors.
Looking ahead: Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’ Kent-based space company, is reportedly seeking up to $10 billion in what would be its first outside funding round. A deal that size would be larger than every other Seattle-area venture round this year combined.
Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz. (GeekWire File Photo / Kevin Lisota)
For the second time in the past 60 days, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has penned an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal that takes direct aim at the state’s political leadership, calling Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson “inept” and noting that Gov. Bob Ferguson continues to “burden businesses with one tax increase after another.”
In his piece, Schultz points specifically to Kent-based Stoke Space, the reusable rocket startup that has raised more than $1 billion in funding, as the kind of company Washington needs to fight to keep.
Schultz, who decamped for Miami earlier this year, is obviously concerned about the well-being of his former state. And the one-time presidential hopeful certainly has a lot of ideas for the place he just left — arguing that the reindustrialization of the U.S. could be sparked by matching entrepreneurs with young people seeking apprenticeship opportunities in the trades.
Schultz makes some good points, and he echoes the statements of many in the business community who are concerned about the current direction. We’ve also reported recently on how other states — including Ohio — are out to eat the lunch of Washington state.
And we’ve pointed out the the long slide in Washington state’s business climate, reporting on CNBC’s report this week that ranks Washington No. 11 for business. That’s down from No. 2 four years ago, and No. 1 in 2017.
But you have to wonder: Is the coffee magnate really the best messenger for what ails Washington state? And what’s his end game? It seems his words would carry more weight had he decided to stick around, and try to fix the broken system.
Then again, Florida has its own challenges. Perhaps his next editorial will tackle a few of those.
Seattle’s skyline, the economic engine of Washington state. (GeekWire Photo / Kurt Schlosser)
For much of the past year, the narrative surrounding Washington state’s business climate has taken a decidedly negative turn.
Business leaders have criticized a wave of new taxes approved by lawmakers. High-profile companies have announced expansions elsewhere. Entrepreneurs have questioned whether Washington remains as welcoming to innovation as it once was, prompting Gov. Bob Ferguson to launch a new Economic Development Council aimed at strengthening the state’s competitiveness.
But a new national ranking released Thursday complicates that narrative.
Washington climbed three spots to No. 11 in CNBC’s annual America’s Top States for Businessrankings, up from No. 14 last year, suggesting that many of the state’s underlying competitive strengths remain intact even as debate over its business climate has intensified.
That’s the good news. The bad news: Just four years ago, Washington ranked No. 2 in the same survey. In 2017, the state was No. 1
Certainly, Washington is at a crossroads when it comes to how it thinks about its business community. The CNBC ranking and the big fluctuations over the past four years speak to the seesaw-like narrative that has taken shape.
The business climate also has been front-and-center in GeekWire’s recent coverage.
Washington lawmakers approved billions of dollars in new taxes during this year’s legislative session, including new taxes affecting many technology companies.
Ferguson subsequently created the Economic Development Council composed of leaders from companies including Microsoft, Amazon, Boeing and T-Mobile to identify ways to strengthen the state’s economy amid growing concerns about competitiveness. (GeekWire contributing columnist Charles Fitzgerald questioned why the council did not include anyone from the startup community in his recent piece: Governor’s new economic council snubs startups, forgets AI).
We also recently traveled to Cleveland to examine why Ohio has emerged as one of the country’s fastest-growing destinations for business investment and technology jobs. State leaders there have aggressively positioned Ohio as an alternative to coastal technology hubs, touting lower costs, business-friendly policies and major investments in manufacturing, semiconductors and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
That strategy appears to be paying off.
Ohio claimed CNBC’s top spot this year, overtaking last year’s winner to become America’s Top State for Business in 2026. It has been an historic climb for the Buckeye state, which ranked No. 30 in the inaugural survey in 2007 and just cracked the top 10 last year.
One of GeekWire’s key takeaways from our visit to northeast Ohio is that the entire community is unified, rowing in one common direction, from Gov. Mike DeWine to real estate developers to entrepreneurs to philanthropic organizations.
“I don’t give advice to other areas,” DeWine told us on our recent visit. “But my advice to people is, come to Ohio. Come work in Ohio. You will not find a better place, better people, quality of life. Cost of living is low compared to the two coasts.”
The ranking also comes as several prominent Washington employers have announced significant investments outside the state. Starbucks recently unveiled plans for a major corporate expansion in Nashville, while aerospace supplier Janicki Industries said it will build a large new manufacturing campus in Montana, fueling concerns among some business leaders that Washington is becoming a more difficult place to grow.
At the same time, CNBC’s methodology highlights many of the advantages that have long made Washington one of the country’s leading innovation economies. Here’s how Washington ranked per CNBC:
CNBC graphic
The network evaluates states across 10 categories using 138 metrics, including workforce, infrastructure, economy, technology and innovation, business friendliness, education, cost of doing business and quality of life. The methodology is updated annually to reflect the factors companies say matter most when making investment decisions.
While Washington continues to face challenges related to business costs and taxes, it remains home to one of the nation’s deepest concentrations of technology talent, world-class research universities, global companies including Microsoft and Amazon, and a robust startup ecosystem — strengths that continue to score well in CNBC’s analysis.
The results also underscore how different rankings can produce different conclusions depending on what they measure. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation, which focuses specifically on state tax policy, ranked Washington 45th in its 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index, citing the state’s gross receipts-based Business & Occupation tax, taxation of business inputs and recent changes to its capital gains tax.
Seattle also recently declined in a new ranking of the best places in the U.S. to attract foreign businesses and investment. The fifth annual list compiled by British newspaper Financial Times and stock market index Nikkei ranked Seattle 13th among 95 U.S. cities — a drop of 11 places from last year’s second-place position.
Together, the rankings illustrate the complexity of evaluating a state’s business climate.
Washington continues to enjoy many of the assets that have made it one of the nation’s leading centers for technology and innovation. At the same time, business leaders have become increasingly vocal that higher taxes and rising costs could erode those advantages over time if policymakers fail to address competitiveness.
Gov. Bob Ferguson announcing the new Economic Development Council. (Washington Office of Financial Management Photo)
Gov. Bob Ferguson last week recruited top executives from Microsoft, Amazon, T-Mobile, Boeing and other major employers to help shape Washington state’s economic strategy, launching a new advisory council as concerns mount that the state is becoming less competitive for business.
The 26-member Governor’s Economic Development Council is the first such governor-led economic advisory body in roughly two decades, reviving an approach last used under former Gov. Christine Gregoire in 2006. The group includes leaders from technology, aerospace, organized labor, higher education, tribal governments, ports and economic development organizations who will advise the governor on policies aimed at strengthening Washington’s economy. (See full list below).
One missing ingredient: No members from Washington’s venture capital or startup ecosystem are on the council, even though they are often considered the bench strength of a growing economy.
The announcement comes as executives, startup founders and business organizations have increasingly warned that higher taxes, rising costs, permitting delays and an uncertain regulatory environment are making Washington a more difficult place to build and grow companies. Ferguson recently signed the so-called “millionaires tax” — a proposed 9.9% tax applied to taxable, personal annual income that exceeds $1 million.
Some of the region’s wealthiest and most prominent entrepreneurs — including Zillow and Expedia co-founder Rich Barton; Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz — have publicly announced moves out of Washington state in recent years.
Starbucks also recently announced a major expansion in Nashville, and Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte of earlier this month announced that Sedro Wooley, Wash.-based Janicki Industries chose Great Falls for the site of an $800 million manufacturing center expected to create 1,000 jobs.
“Washington is our home, and that is not changing,” said John Janicki, president of Janicki Industries, in a press release. “Our footprint in Washington has continued to grow but is slowing due to ever-increasing regulations and lack of business understanding at an executive and legislative level.”
Meanwhile, a recent survey from the Association of Washington Business found that 24% of businesses are considering a relocation out of the state, up from 17 percent in the prior quarter.
Washington’s economic climate was also one of the reasons why GeekWire recently traveled to Cleveland, where we explored how the Midwestern city was positioning itself for a changing economy, and the lessons that Washington could learn from it.
“We cannot take our strength for granted,” Ferguson said in announcing the council. “I’m launching a historic convening of top leaders from around Washington state to help guide the next chapter of economic prosperity for our state.”
The council will help develop Washington’s long-term economic strategy, identify opportunities to create family-wage jobs, evaluate the state’s competitiveness against other states and global markets, recommend ways to attract new employers and review regulatory barriers that may be slowing economic growth. The group will meet quarterly and submit recommendations to the governor.
The council’s creation comes after months of growing unease within Washington’s technology and business community.
GeekWire has reportedextensively on criticism surrounding this year’s tax package, which raised business taxes on many employers and expanded the sales tax to additional services, including advertising. Business groups warned the measures could discourage investment and expansion in Washington, while lawmakers argued the revenue was necessary to close a multibillion-dollar budget gap and preserve essential public services.
The broader economic backdrop remains mixed. Washington continues to rank among the nation’s strongest state economies and remains home to global leaders in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, aerospace and life sciences. At the same time, employers are navigating higher borrowing costs, federal policy uncertainty, trade tensions and intensifying competition from states aggressively courting new investment.
As one example, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine recently encouraged people and businesses from places like Washington to consider Ohio.
“Come work in Ohio,” DeWine noted after a question from GeekWire about advice he’d provide to Washington. “You will not find a better place, better people, quality of life. Cost of living is low compared to the two coasts.”
In the press release announcing Janicki Industries’ Montana expansion, Gianforte was a bit more blunt.
“The Treasure State is proud to attract job creators like Janicki that choose to expand from high-tax, high-regulation blue states to take advantage of our unmatched quality of life, lower taxes, and strong workforce,” he said. “I look forward to seeing the impact of this significant investment.”
Ferguson has sought to make economic development a central priority during his first year in office. His administration has highlighted efforts to speed permitting across state agencies, increase housing production and invest in sectors including quantum computing, advanced manufacturing and clean energy.
However, some have argued that the governor’s efforts come a bit too late, and are only be instituted in response to criticism. Gov. Ferguson shot back at that contention in the press conference last week, saying he doesn’t worry about critics and he’s interested in “solving problems.”
“I didn’t wake up last week and think about forming this council,” he said. “To be clear, as I mentioned in my talking points, this was an effort we really started last year and was an outgrowth of having conversations with many of the folks behind me and many other people across the state.”
Whether the new council ultimately leads to meaningful policy changes remains to be seen. But its creation sends a signal that Ferguson intends to place economic competitiveness — and closer engagement with Washington’s business community — near the center of his administration.
Amazon Chief Global Affairs and Legal Officer David Zapolsky, a member of the newly created council, called the formation of the group an “important step.”
“When the public and private sectors align around shared goals, communities benefit,” he said.
Governor’s Economic Development Council members:
Michael Cade — Incoming Board Chair, Washington Economic Development Association; Executive Director, Thurston County Economic Development Council
Dr. Betsy Cantwell — President, Washington State University
Leonard Forsman — Chairman, Suquamish Tribe
Denny Heck — Washington State Lieutenant Governor
Kris Johnson — President, Association of Washington Business
Trevor Johnson — CEO, Blackwood Homes
Dr. Robert Jones — President, University of Washington
Mike Katz — Chief Business & Product Officer, T-Mobile
Mary Kipp — President & CEO, Puget Sound Energy
Heather Kurtenbach — Executive Secretary, Washington State Building & Construction Trades Council
Dr. Thomas J. Lynch Jr. — President & Director, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
Julianna Marler — CEO, Port of Vancouver
West Mathison — President & CEO, Stemilt Growers
Stephen Metruck — Executive Director, Port of Seattle
Denise Moriguchi — President & CEO, Uwajimaya
Stephanie Pope — President & CEO, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
Heather Rosentrater — President & CEO, Avista
Michael Senske — Chairman & CEO, Pearson Packaging Systems
April Sims — President, Washington State Labor Council, AFL-CIO
Brad Smith — Vice Chair and President, Microsoft
Rachel Smith — President, Washington Roundtable
Bill Sterud — Chairman, Puyallup Tribe
Shane Tackett — President and Chief Financial Officer, Alaska Airlines
Monique Valenzuela — Executive Director, Ventures
Dr. Rebekah Woods — President, Columbia Basin College
David Zapolsky — Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer, Amazon
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