Bitcoin’s price rose on Friday — despite data revealing that U.S. inflation had risen.
The biggest cryptocurrency by market cap was recently trading for close to $78,749 after jumping 2% over a 24-hour period. At one point on Friday morning in New York, bitcoin rose as high as $79,607.
Bitcoin’s price spike came after news dropped that U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from a month earlier, which was higher than expected.
Inflation in the U.S. has been difficult to tame due to the war with Iran, which has lifted oil prices, in turn raising the costs of food, gasoline and other goods.
Higher inflation typically means the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which in turn could stop bitcoin’s price climbing higher.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders think there is a 85% chance interest rates will be higher by next week. The Federal Reserve will meet next week and reveal what it will do with borrowing costs.
Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low interest rate environment because it means people can buy more of the cryptocurrency with increased liquidity.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who took the helm in January, last month gave his first speech as head of the U.S. central bank and said he had “more work to do” to fight inflation.
The U.S. is currently in the grips of an affordability crisis and rising oil prices are a hot topic ahead of the midterm elections.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reassured voters that prices will get under control and repeatedly put pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates.
Bitcoin in August had its biggest run in years following positive regulatory news and an announcement from the U.S. Treasury.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, helping non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold. The cryptocurrency then benefited from President Trump urging lawmakers to get key crypto legislation, the Clarity Act, over the line.
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Truflation has forecast that annual U.S. headline inflation will remain at 3.4% in August as higher gasoline prices, tariffs and producer costs threaten to keep price pressure above the Federal Reserve’s target. Truflation said in its August inflation report that…
Bitcoin has fallen 0.8% to about $79,176 over the past 24 hours as analysts forecast continued trading between $78,000 and $82,000 before the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision. Bitcoin price remains capped near $82,000 Bitfinex analysts told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s…
Bitcoin slid Friday after a better-than-expected labor report showed that the U.S. job market accelerated in August.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently trading for close to $79,764 after dropping as low as $78,706 earlier in the morning in New York. It’s currently down over 1% over a 24-hour period. On Thursday, the coin soared above $82,000.
The Federal Reserve is typically more likely to raise interest rates when the labor market is strong, because more people employed means more spending, and more spending can push inflation up.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh last week gave his first major speech as head of the U.S. central bank and said he had “more work to do” to fight inflation. Bitcoin has typically done well in a low-interest rate environment.
Traders currently view a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the upcoming September 15–16 policy meeting as roughly a 50% to 60% probability.
But U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday demanded the Federal Reserve slash interest rates.
Writing on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said: “Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago!”
He added: “We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like ‘the old days.'”
Bitcoin has decoupled from stocks recently as investors have renewed concerns around dollar debasement.
The cryptocurrency started surging last month, after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The coin had its best run in three years and third best August ever.
The much-talked about debasement trade is back in the spotlight, and bitcoin has been trading in lockstep with gold, according to analysts. The so-called debasement trade is when investors buy an asset as a way to hedge against a currency losing value.
News dropped last month that U.S. public debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time too. Excessive debt also undermines confidence in the dollar, making assets like bitcoin and gold attractive.
A new geopolitical shock is pushing oil higher, Treasury yields are rising, and rate-hike fears are returning. Yet Bitcoin is still holding near $79,000.
Something unusual is happening in financial markets.
Oil is rising sharply.
Treasury yields are climbing.
The U.S. dollar is under pressure from a complicated mix of fiscal and geopolitical concerns.
And investors are once again discussing the possibility of tighter monetary policy.
Normally, this would be a terrible combination for Bitcoin.
Yet Bitcoin is still hovering around $79,000.
That divergence may be one of the most interesting signals in crypto right now.
The Geopolitical Risk Is Back
The latest escalation between the United States and Iran has immediately changed the market’s risk calculation.
Brent crude moved above $91 per barrel, while WTI climbed toward $87 as investors began pricing in renewed risks to energy supplies and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait is particularly important because roughly one-fifth of global oil flows through the waterway.
Any prolonged disruption could therefore create a second-order problem for global markets:
And that chain reaction is exactly what investors are worried about.
The Fed Problem Just Became More Complicated
Oil isn’t just an energy story.
It’s a monetary-policy story.
When energy prices rise sharply, inflation can become much harder to control.
That creates a difficult situation for the Federal Reserve.
If economic growth weakens while inflation rises, policymakers face a classic dilemma:
Do you support growth or fight inflation?
The market has already started adjusting.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.75%, reaching its highest level in roughly 19 months, as higher oil prices increased expectations that the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer.
That should normally be a major headwind for Bitcoin.
But Bitcoin hasn’t collapsed.
Bitcoin Is Refusing to Behave Like a Pure Risk Asset
This is where the story gets interesting.
Bitcoin is currently around $79,000, after August delivered one of its strongest monthly performances in years. Bitcoin gained roughly 25% during August, according to recent market data.
Now the market is facing:
Higher oil prices
Higher Treasury yields
Renewed geopolitical risk
Greater rate-hike expectations
Yet BTC remains relatively resilient.
That doesn’t mean Bitcoin has become immune to macro conditions.
It means investors may be treating Bitcoin differently than they did several years ago.
The Bitcoin Narrative Is Splitting in Two
There are now two competing stories around Bitcoin.
The first is the traditional risk-asset narrative.
Higher rates hurt liquidity.
Higher yields make bonds more attractive.
A stronger dollar pressures speculative assets.
Under this framework, Bitcoin should struggle.
The second is the monetary-hedge narrative.
Government debt keeps growing.
Inflation remains difficult to eliminate.
Geopolitical tensions are increasing.
Investors want exposure to scarce assets.
Under this framework, Bitcoin can benefit.
These two narratives can coexist.
And that explains why Bitcoin can simultaneously behave like a risk asset and a monetary alternative.
Gold Is Sending a Similar Signal
Bitcoin isn’t the only asset attracting attention.
Gold has also remained extremely strong, with spot gold recently trading above $4,600 per ounce.
That matters because Bitcoin and gold are increasingly being discussed together.
When investors become concerned about:
currency debasement,
government debt,
geopolitical instability,
and long-term purchasing power,
both assets can become part of the conversation.
The difference is that gold has thousands of years of monetary history.
Bitcoin has only existed for less than two decades.
The fact that investors are increasingly comparing them is itself significant.
But Here’s the Catch
Bitcoin’s resilience doesn’t mean the market is safe.
If oil remains above $90 for an extended period, inflation expectations could continue rising.
That could force central banks to remain restrictive for longer.
And higher rates eventually affect almost everything.
Stocks.
Credit.
Real estate.
Crypto.
So Bitcoin may be resisting the first wave of macro pressure.
That doesn’t mean it will necessarily resist the second.
September Could Be a Very Different Month
August was spectacular for Bitcoin.
September could be much harder.
Historically, September has been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months, with average performance often lagging other periods.
This year, however, the market enters September from a completely different position.
Bitcoin has already rallied sharply.
Institutional participation has increased.
Crypto sentiment has improved.
But macro uncertainty is rising again.
That creates an interesting battle between:
Crypto momentum
and
Macro pressure.
Whichever side wins could determine the next major move.
The $80K Level Is Still the Psychological Battlefield
Bitcoin remains close to $80,000.
That number has become more than a technical resistance level.
It represents a psychological dividing line.
Above it, the market can start talking about:
$85K.
$90K.
$100K.
Below it, traders may start questioning whether August’s rally was simply an aggressive rebound.
The interesting part is that Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily need to break $80K immediately.
It may actually be healthier if it spends some time consolidating below the level.
The market needs to absorb the gains.
Watch Oil Before You Watch Bitcoin
This may sound strange for a crypto article.
But over the next few weeks, oil could become one of the most important variables for Bitcoin.
If Brent stays above $90:
Inflation risk increases.
Rate expectations rise.
Treasury yields remain elevated.
Liquidity becomes tighter.
That creates pressure on crypto.
If geopolitical tensions ease and oil retreats:
Inflation expectations could cool.
Rate pressure could decline.
Risk appetite could recover.
Bitcoin would have a much friendlier environment.
In other words:
The next Bitcoin catalyst might not come from crypto at all.
The Market Is Entering a Much More Interesting Phase
The easy narrative is gone.
Bitcoin isn’t simply moving higher because investors are bullish.
There are competing forces now.
Institutional demand wants Bitcoin.
Macro conditions are pushing against it.
Geopolitical risk is creating uncertainty.
Gold is attracting capital.
Oil is creating inflation pressure.
The Fed is watching the data.
And Bitcoin is sitting in the middle of all of it.
That is exactly what makes the current market interesting.
Final Thoughts
The biggest crypto story today isn’t that Bitcoin is around $79,000.
It is that Bitcoin is holding around $79,000 while the macro environment is becoming significantly more hostile.
Oil is above $90.
Treasury yields are approaching 4.75%.
Rate-hike expectations are rising.
Geopolitical tensions are escalating.
Yet Bitcoin remains relatively resilient.
That doesn’t prove Bitcoin has become a safe haven.
It doesn’t prove the bull market will continue.
But it does suggest that the Bitcoin market is evolving.
Investors are no longer looking at BTC through a single lens.
Some see a risk asset.
Some see digital gold.
Some see a hedge against monetary instability.
And increasingly, institutions appear willing to hold exposure regardless of which narrative eventually wins.
That’s the real story behind today’s Bitcoin market.
The question is no longer simply:
“Can Bitcoin reach $100,000?”
The more interesting question is:
“What happens to Bitcoin if the world becomes significantly more uncertain?”
We may be about to find out.
About SoonTech
SoonTech follows the global digital asset market, Web3 trends, and the macro forces reshaping the future of digital finance.
Bitcoin dropped, then popped after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first major speech as head of the U.S. central bank and said he had “more work to do” to fight inflation.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently trading for $79,474 after dropping as low as $78,630 before quickly rising again.
Bitcoin has typically done well in a low interest rate environment but the Federal Reserve has been reluctant to lower borrowing costs due to sticky inflation in the world’s biggest economy.
“But on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning,” Warsh said after talking about employment.
He added: “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”
Bitcoin has in the past dropped on news that the Federal Reserve thinks inflation is too high because it means less chance of a rate cut. Following Warsh’s speech, traders priced in a 50% chance of rate hike in September.
But Bitcoin has appeared to — at least for now — shrug off the speech.
Bitcoin’s started surging last week after the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks.
The news sent yields down lower, and the dollar slid while non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold jumped.
Positive regulatory news also helped the coin: President Donald Trump last week said that the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act was a “very, very powerful” piece of legislation, and urged lawmakers to get it over the line.
The proposed law will establish a framework for distinguishing between digital assets that are securities, commodities or payment stablecoins — legislation that the crypto industry has long called for.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is on Friday holding the annual event at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where central bankers, Federal Reserve officials, policymakers and academics will gather to discuss “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City website, this year’s event will touch on how “recent years have seen a dramatic increase in innovation in financial intermediation and payments,” including new technologies such as “cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.”
Bitcoin again closed in on the $81,000 mark on Thursday before dropping again as its stellar week continued.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently trading for $80,236 after notching as high as $80,793 earlier in the day in New York.
Bitcoin is now up more than 2% over the past day after gaining 10% in a week. The coin’s rise comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote on Friday where he is expected to talk about digital payments — including crypto.
JUST IN: The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is now up to 71, "Greed"
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will hold the annual event at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where central bankers, Federal Reserve officials, policymakers and academics will gather to discuss “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City website, this year’s event will touch on how “recent years have seen a dramatic increase in innovation in financial intermediation and payments,” including new technologies such as “cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.”
It will be Warsh’s first major speech as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh, who has made pro-Bitcoin statements in the past, has been reluctant to lower interest rates; President Donald Trump, who nominated Warsh, has since last year pushed for borrowing costs to come down.
Bitcoin in the past has done well in a low interest rate environment.
Bitcoin’s run started last week when it sustained its biggest run in years following positive regulatory news and an announcement from the U.S. Treasury.
But recent positive regulatory news has helped the coin. While a vote on the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act has been delayed until September, President Donald Trump last week said that the bill was a “very, very powerful” piece of legislation, and urged lawmakers to get it over the line.
The proposed law will establish a framework for distinguishing between digital assets that are securities, commodities or payment stablecoins — legislation that the crypto industry has long called for.
And U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also last week announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks.
The news sent yields down lower; lower long-term yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold, and generally supports risk-on sentiment.
Reservists no longer need to demonstrate that their period of active duty service was connected to a war to qualify for transitional health care coverage.
Bitcoin’s price dipped slightly before remaining mostly steady after data on Wednesday showed that U.S. inflation was subdued.
The price of the largest cryptocurrency recently stood at $63,863, mostly unmoved over a 24-hour period. Over the past week, Bitcoin is also flat.
The core consumer price index, which excludes often-volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.2% from a month earlier and increased 2.5% from a year earlier — the slowest pace since March 2021.
Energy and gas prices fell for a second month and grocery prices dropped for the first time since March, according to the print.
The news takes the pressure off Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to raise interest rates in September.
Softer inflation data eases the path toward rate cuts, and lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no yield. Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low-interest rate environment.
Sticky inflation in the world’s biggest economy has led the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach with interest rates. Despite Wednesday’s softer inflation data, prices are still higher than they were a year ago and wages in the U.S. are not keeping up.
Bitcoin has faced increased volatility since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February, with the leading cryptocurrency dropping hard on initial reports of war. Bitcoin is now down nearly 30% year-to-date.
Still, in recent weeks, investors have shown a growing appetite for the asset. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. have experienced massive inflows — the biggest since April last week — despite negative news for the crypto industry: a massive exploit of the popular Coldcard Bitcoin hardware wallets last month shook crypto investors and a vote on the long-awaited digital asset market structure bill, the Clarity Act, has been delayed.
Bitcoin was trading higher on Wednesday — but only slightly — after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates still.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently priced at close to $64,402 per coin, after moving up by nearly 1% in the hour following the announcement.
As expected, the U.S. central bank left the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Three of the 12 members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee “preferred” a quarter-percentage-point hike at this meeting.
BREAKING: Federal Reserve officially leaves interest rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. pic.twitter.com/mkMnSee2ou
Speaking to the press following the announcement, the Fed’s new Chair, Kevin Warsh, revealed little about where the central bank would go next.
“The Fed’s on the case,” he said. “I’ve been heartened by the reception I’ve received. We’re committed as ever to deliver.”
He added that the July rate decision was “a rigorous review of the economic situation.”
“I wouldn’t characterize what we did as anything like a pause,” he said. “I would characterize what we did as a rigorous review of the economic situation. I would characterize what we did as a review of the big, hard questions.”
Warsh, who took over in May, has said he has “no tolerance” for inflation that has been running above the central bank’s target for more than five years.
Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low-interest rate environment, and crypto investors have been hoping the Federal Reserve would cut rates to boost digital assets.
President Donald Trump since taking office has pushed for lower interest rates, and clashed with ex-Fed chair Jerome Powell over the matter.
For now, Warsh doesn’t seem like he’ll be going in that direction as sticky inflation continues to bother Americans.
The Federal Reserve started aggressively raising rates in 2022 in a bid to control 40-year-high inflation spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. Bitcoin was hit by the tightening.
Then, in 2024, the central bank repeatedly cut rates. It has been hesitant to lower them since the end of 2025.
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