Seattle embraced the global spotlight and rode a wave of economic euphoria when the FIFA World Cup came to town this summer, but according to new voter data out Tuesday, the city let that momentum slip away just as downtown businesses and major tech employers grapple with an ongoing economic squeeze.

The eleventh edition of The Index, a semiannual survey tracking voter sentiment commissioned by the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, reveals a sharp erosion in public confidence regarding the city’s economic trajectory.

According to polling of 700 Seattle voters conducted from Sept. 23 to Oct. 1 by public opinion research firm Fulcrum Strategic Group, 68% believe the city’s economy is getting weaker, 22% think it’s staying the same, and just 10% say it’s stronger.

While voters point to persistent quality-of-life concerns like public safety, homelessness and affordability, the findings underscore growing anxiety over Seattle’s business climate, at a time when major tech employers continue to evaluate their regional footprint and shift jobs across Lake Washington.

Seattle Metro Chamber President and CEO Joe Nguyen said the World Cup brought an energy and excitement downtown that was real and positive. But after a few months, there’s been no sustained honeymoon, and 65% of voters feel Seattle is losing positive momentum on public safety and quality of life.

“We demonstrated as a region what is possible when we all work together, and folks are already feeling that shift away,” Nguyen said during a media briefing Tuesday.

While chief concerns in the survey center on crime and public safety, economic health follows closely behind. In addition to widespread pessimism about the city’s overall trajectory, 71% of respondents agree that businesses are closing down or leaving for nearby cities because the cost of doing business in Seattle has gotten too high. Furthermore, 95% of those surveyed say it is difficult for small businesses to operate in the city.

When it comes to major employers — the tech giants and large corporations such as Amazon that anchor the regional economy and bear the brunt of taxes like the city’s JumpStart payroll levy — the survey reveals a striking disconnect.

The survey found 70% of voters recognize large businesses as essential to Seattle’s success, defying the narrative that the local electorate is anti-business. Andrew Thibault, partner at survey conductor Fulcrum Strategic Group, called it “the most interesting section” in the whole survey.

“Voters here deeply understand that their quality of life is connected to the health of the business environment and our ability to afford the things that we want to afford, like transit and schools, and environmental protections,” Thibault said. “All of those depend on a healthy business environment.”

But a significant knowledge gap persists around tax contributions. Voters estimated on average that large businesses pay just 37% of the city’s total tax revenue, with three-quarters believing that figure sits below 50%. In actuality, businesses pay 68% — more than two-thirds — of all city taxes, according to a recent tax analysis from the Chamber.

Underlying economic anxiety is playing out directly in City Hall’s budget debates. As major employers and tech giants navigate a shifting economic landscape — including recent reports showing downtown Seattle shedding 13,000 jobs in a single year while neighboring Bellevue’s tech hub expanded — voters are demanding a tighter rein on city spending.

The Index reveals that 66% of Seattle voters distrust the city to spend tax dollars responsibly, and nearly eight in 10 support requiring City Hall to prove existing spending is producing results before asking residents or major employers to pay more.

Those sentiments carry heavy weight as the city grapples with its budget. Facing what officials call “seismic shifts” in the tech sector, Mayor Katie Wilson’s proposed budget attempts to close a massive deficit through spending cuts while freezing the rates for corporate levies like the JumpStart payroll tax.

For Nguyen and the Chamber, the message from voters is clear: City Hall must focus on tangible delivery with existing resources rather than continuous policy shifts and progressive tax increases.

Pointing to the city’s reliance on core revenue streams like business and occupation (B&O), sales, and JumpStart taxes, Nguyen emphasized the risk of over-targeting a concentrated corporate base.

“Finagling with it too much creates a problem where the people who are reliant upon paying the taxes are also the ones being targeted,” Nguyen said. “So if they leave, it creates a multiplier effect in the wrong direction.”

Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson on Tuesday proposed a budget that closes the city’s inherited deficit largely through spending cuts and rules out new taxes on big business. That includes any increase to the JumpStart payroll tax she helped create, a decision that comes amid a rocky stretch for the region’s tech industry.

The $9.1 billion proposed 2027 budget, the first year of the city’s 2027–28 biennial plan, aims to erase a $175 million General Fund deficit without new progressive revenue.

Wilson’s plan cuts nearly $50 million a year in General Fund spending and eliminates 128 full-time positions, 15 of which are currently filled. It also continues using JumpStart revenue to prop up general city services, while keeping more than 30% of the tax’s annual revenue — about $140 million — dedicated to affordable housing.

Speaking at the Seattle Central Library on Tuesday, Wilson framed the decision as a response to economic conditions.

“We are watching seismic shifts in the tech sector, which anchors so much of our regional economy,” Wilson said. Raising additional progressive revenue presents high risks while downtown remains fragile, she added, noting that expanding taxes like JumpStart is “not the right move” right now.

The stance marks a notable turn for Wilson. Before taking office, she helped design and push for JumpStart as a community activist. As recently as July, she called raising the tax an option for closing the budget gap. On Tuesday, she acknowledged she is “continuing to direct JumpStart dollars beyond the programs it was originally intended for,” and said she aims to grow the tax’s housing share in future budgets.

Passed by the City Council in July 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, JumpStart was pitched as a way to fund affordable housing, climate initiatives, small business support, and equitable development. It applies to businesses with large Seattle payrolls and taxes the pay of employees earning roughly $194,000 or more, at rates ranging up to 2.55% depending on payroll size and salary levels.

Because of high salaries and equity-heavy compensation across major tech firms, the tax falls heavily on big tech. Just 10 top taxpayers, led by companies like Amazon, Meta, and Google, account for roughly 70% of JumpStart revenue.

JumpStart was designed with guardrails to protect spending on housing and community development, but it quickly became a lifeline for City Hall during post-pandemic revenue shortfalls. Under Wilson’s predecessors, the city routinely shifted roughly $200 million or more a year from the tax into the General Fund to patch structural deficits.

By holding rates steady, Wilson’s budget offers Seattle tech employers a period of tax stability amid growing friction over the city’s business climate. Business groups have long argued that heavy payroll taxes undermine Seattle’s competitiveness, pushing job growth and tech investment toward Eastside hubs like Bellevue and Redmond that don’t impose comparable payroll taxes.

That debate was reignited in June by a Downtown Seattle Association report examining the tax five years after its passage. The report tied JumpStart to the loss of about 30,000 downtown jobs and found that downtown Seattle office properties lost 48% of their assessed value between 2020 and 2025, while downtown Bellevue’s rose 7%.

While Wilson cautioned at the time against blaming downtown’s complex post-pandemic recovery on a single policy, her decision to hold JumpStart rates steady reflects her administration’s apparent willingness to listen to business concerns as City Hall works to revitalize the commercial core.

On Tuesday, DSA President and CEO Jon Scholes welcomed her budget, saying that not adding business taxes while employers face headwinds is “important and a helpful signal to the business community.”

Last week, during the launch of Partnership for a Competitive Puget Sound, a new regional initiative brought together by Challenge Seattle to strengthen the area’s tech strategy, Microsoft President Brad Smith referred to the tax.

As structured, the payroll tax “is really a tax on tech jobs,” Smith said, “and that’s why you’re seeing more tech jobs move from Seattle to places like Bellevue and the Eastside.” He noted that San Francisco abolished its payroll tax the same year Seattle adopted one, in 2021.

“You should tax things you want to discourage, like cigarettes, not jobs,” Smith said at the time.

On Tuesday, Amazon offered its reaction to the mayor’s budget plan.

“We appreciate Mayor Wilson putting forward a budget that focuses on making use of existing resources,” an Amazon spokesperson told GeekWire. “Like Mayor Wilson, we believe the city’s first priority should be making sure those resources are used effectively and deliver results for residents.”

Beyond payroll taxes, Wilson’s budget speech and recent executive actions touched on several tech-adjacent priorities:

Housing permitting acceleration: Following an executive order last month launching a Housing Production Task Force, the budget funds a new Affordable Housing Ombud position to help community developers navigate city permitting faster.

Algorithmic pricing transparency: The budget funds implementation of the city’s Fair and Transparent Pricing policy. The City Council was scheduled to take a final vote Tuesday on the ordinance, making Seattle the first city in the country to ban algorithmic price discrimination (also known as surveillance pricing) for groceries.

Economic diversification and AI exposure: The budget proposal follows an executive order Wilson signed earlier this month aimed at diversifying Seattle’s economy. A city-commissioned report warned that local employment is 42% more exposed to AI disruption than the national average, prompting the order’s call for targeted support to retain growing startups.

Green technology investments: The budget maintains JumpStart-funded Green New Deal programs, including building decarbonization, urban forest support, and clean energy apprenticeships.

With the proposed budget now formally submitted, the Seattle City Council begins a nine-week review process chaired by Councilmember Dan Strauss. Public hearings are scheduled for Oct. 6 and Nov. 5, and councilmembers have until Oct. 20 to submit proposed amendments before Strauss presents a revised balancing package in early November.

A final council vote to adopt the final budget is slated for Nov. 20.