Senate Republicans have released another round of revisions to the CLARITY Act as they seek Democratic support ahead of a September 15 procedural vote on the cryptocurrency market-structure bill.

The latest version runs to 635 pages, adds provisions on ethics, enforcement, stablecoin yields, and digital-asset market operations, and represents a last-ditch bid to pass the CLARITY Act this year.

The CLARITY Act is a proposed framework for digital commodities. According to the Congressional Research Service summary of the House bill, it would generally give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission responsibility for regulating digital-commodity transactions.

This includes exchanges, brokers, and dealers. The measure also assigns the Securities and Exchange Commission a role in specified digital-commodity activities and transactions.

What Changed in the Revised 635 Page CLARITY Act Draft?

The revised text incorporates an ethics framework supported by President Donald Trump, restricting public officials from engaging in digital assets.

Under this framework, officials with significant crypto holdings must divest or place assets in a blind trust. Both the Department of Justice and state attorneys general will enforce these ethics rules, addressing previous Democratic concerns.

The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act now focuses on Bank Secrecy Act compliance and removes protections for criminal proceedings.

The bill includes miners and validators in these narrowed protections. The bill also introduces a circuit-breaker mechanism for stablecoins, allowing federal regulators to intervene during significant withdrawals from community banks.

Additionally, the bill proposes stricter limits on vertical integration, including rules on affiliate trading and potential conflicts at digital commodity exchanges, while state consumer protection laws remain unchanged. Developer protections will not override derivatives regulations or alter rules for prediction markets.

Lummis Frames the Bill as Finished

Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee Chair Cynthia Lummis said the bill followed a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations and described it as ready. She said Trump had voluntarily agreed to ethics restrictions that she characterized as among the toughest applied to federal officials in U.S. history.

Lummis argued that Democrats had received the concessions they sought and should support the measure. Her comments came with the release of the final CLARITY Act text and focused on the ethics provisions added during negotiations.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also voiced support for the CLARITY Act ahead of the Senate vote. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on September 10, Armstrong said the bill was ready for approval and cited support from law-enforcement groups, banks, and crypto companies.

Armstrong said the revisions addressed Coinbase’s main concerns with the legislation. Coinbase had previously raised several issues that it considered essential, according to reporting on the company’s position.

What Does the Vote Actually Decide?

The September 15 event is a procedural vote tied to the CLARITY Act. It follows Senate Republicans’ latest changes as they seek Democratic backing for the cryptocurrency market-structure measure.

The legislation itself would establish a regulatory framework for digital commodities, which it defines as digital assets that rely on a blockchain for their value.

Under the bill summary, the CFTC would generally regulate digital-commodity transactions, while the SEC would retain jurisdiction over certain activities and transactions involving digital commodities.

The framework also includes requirements for trade monitoring, recordkeeping, and the commingling of customer assets. It would subject digital-commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers to the Bank Secrecy Act for anti-money-laundering and related purposes.

The Senate’s consideration of the revised text therefore centers on a bill that combines market-structure provisions with the newly revised ethics and enforcement measures.

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Polymarket’s Fed rates dashboard shows a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points at the Wednesday, September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting. The dashboard lists a 39% probability for no change. A 50-basis-point-or-larger hike, a 25-basis-point cut and a 50-basis-point-or-larger cut are each listed below 1%, according to Polymarket.

The pricing presents a narrower set of leading outcomes for the September meeting. A quarter-point hike is the dashboard’s expected decision, while no change remains the other outcome with a substantial listed probability. The cut outcomes are listed at below 1%, placing them well behind the two leading scenarios in this snapshot.

(Source – Polymarket)

How Likely is a Fed Rate Cut Next Week?

Polymarket lists a 25-basis-point hike at 62% and no change at 39%. Those figures put a hike ahead of a hold, but the hold outcome remains material in the displayed pricing. The other listed outcomes are all below 1%.

The dashboard provides probabilities for the listed meeting outcomes, but it does not explain the reasoning behind those prices or forecast how financial markets may respond to the decision. The figures show event pricing for the September meeting rather than explaining the economic developments that may influence policymakers.

Earlier readings reported by Yahoo Finance illustrate how pricing differed across venues. On September 8, Polymarket traders indicated 49% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, Kalshi traders assigned 48%, and CME FedWatch showed nearly 56%, according to Yahoo Finance.

Those figures were reported before the current 62% Polymarket reading and come from separate market-based measures, so they provide context rather than a direct comparison of identical prices at the same time.

What happens at the September Fed Rate Meeting?

If the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points on September 16, that result would align with Polymarket’s leading listed outcome. If the Fed leaves rates unchanged, it would align with the dashboard’s second-largest listed outcome. The dashboard lists the alternatives of a larger hike or a cut of below 1%.

Other interest-rate market measures have also shown elevated odds of a hike. CNBC reported on September 10 that CME Group’s FedWatch gauge put the chance of a rate increase at 70% in morning trading.

The move followed an August wholesale-price report and a rise in U.S. crude oil prices above $100 a barrel. The report also said that market pricing put the chance of another increase in December close to 60%.

The CNBC reading is higher than Polymarket’s current 62% figure, and it was reported on a different date using CME FedWatch. The difference underscores that market-based gauges can show different probabilities as pricing changes and as venues reflect their own markets.

Polymarket’s current dashboard places the immediate focus on whether the September meeting produces a quarter-point hike or no change. Its below-1% listings for both cut outcomes indicate that cuts were not among the leading outcomes displayed for this meeting.

For readers following the decision, the relevant distinction is between the dashboard’s 62% hike probability and its 39% no-change probability, alongside the separate readings reported by other market-based gauges.

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In Trump crypto news, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett disclosed holding between $1M and $5M in vested Coinbase shares at the end of 2025, according to a previously unreported annual financial filing.

The stake sat on his books while the Trump administration rapidly rewrote federal crypto regulation, and the filing does not establish whether he still holds the shares in 2026.

That timing is the story. Hassett ran the council that housed Trump’s digital-assets working group even as his Coinbase position sat unresolved on paper, and Coinbase itself has been central to the regulatory rewrite now moving through Congress.

Trump Crypto News: What the Hassett Disclosure Shows

Hassett’s 2025 annual disclosure lists vested Coinbase Global Class A shares valued between $1,000,001 and $5,000,000. He served on Coinbase Asset Management’s advisory council from March 2021 until January 2025, when he joined the White House. The filing does not confirm whether he sold the shares afterward.

Three days after Trump’s second inauguration, an executive order established the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, with Hassett’s office named as a member. The group proposed significant changes to digital asset regulations and reversed Biden-era crypto policies, aligning with Coinbase’s lobbying efforts.

Hassett said he recused himself from crypto matters while ethics officials reviewed his holdings, and he chose not to sell the shares to avoid the appearance of timing. The White House confirmed his recusal remains in effect, declining to comment on whether he still owns the shares or whether it affected his economic-policy work.

The Conflict-of-Interest Question

Virginia Canter, a former SEC ethics lawyer now at Democracy Defenders Fund, described the holding as a major conflict of interest or the appearance of one, according to the disclosure’s reporting.

She questioned whether a recusal broad enough to cover all crypto matters could have sidelined one of Trump’s top economic advisors from a defining priority of the administration – one that touched Treasury, Commerce, the SEC and the CFTC, all represented on the same working group Hassett’s council hosted.

What remains unclear is the practical scope of that recusal: which meetings Hassett skipped, which decisions he stepped back from, and how much of his NEC portfolio it touched.

The working group’s final report lists NEC deputy Robin Colwell as its representative rather than Hassett himself, suggesting at least some formal distance, but it doesn’t explain how crypto policy discussions were handled within a council he still directs.

Coinbase’s Stake in the Outcome of the CLARITY Act

Coinbase has more than a passive interest in how this policy fight resolves. The SEC dismissed its enforcement case against the exchange with prejudice just over a month into Trump’s term, a move regulators framed as part of a broader overhaul rather than a ruling on the case’s merits.

Coinbase was also a major backer of the Fairshake super PAC during the 2024 cycle, and CEO Brian Armstrong has met repeatedly with Trump and senior officials, including at the March 2025 White House crypto summit, context that shapes how Armstrong has talked about the regulatory environment under this administration.

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Israel Airspace closure odds remain in focus as regional tensions involving Iran and its proxies continue to shape assessments of potential restrictions on Israeli airspace. A Polymarket market titled “Israel closes its airspace by…?” has drawn over $29.9 million in trading volume, with the September 30 outcome currently pricing at 95% (Yes shares trading at 95¢, No at 5¢).

The high probability reflects traders monitoring the possibility of temporary flight suspensions or broader closures during the market’s resolution window.

Aviation officials recommended an immediate closure of Ben Gurion Airport in early September amid fresh Iranian missile launches. Authorities nevertheless kept operations open while carrying out ongoing situation assessments.

Why the Israel Airspace closure odds have risen

Market interest in the Israel Airspace Closure Odds follows renewed regional tension rather than a single confirmed policy decision. Hezbollah missile activity and Houthi threats remain part of the broader risk picture, alongside U.S.-Iran military exchanges since the breakdown of a July ceasefire and recent Iranian strikes on regional U.S. assets.

Regulatory caution has also been evident. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency issued an information note on August 31 that remains valid through September 30, advising heightened caution across the Tel Aviv flight information region due to risks associated with ballistic missiles and drones. This is an advisory for operators assessing risk, not a closure order for Israeli airspace.

Each of these factors could influence decisions on flight operations, but none, on its own, confirms that a nationwide civilian closure has occurred or will occur.

JUST IN: Iran announced that it has Targeted Two U.S. Warships and 18 other Vessels, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Persian Gulf

A large number of Oil Tankers appear to have been put Out of Action pic.twitter.com/pg8yJtMs5G

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) September 9, 2026

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What a market signal does – and does not – prove

A prediction market reflects the expectations of participants and the terms of the event being traded. It can be useful as an indication of how traders are interpreting headline risk, but it does not replace official notices, operational directives or the underlying facts on the ground. Readers should therefore separate a market’s implied view from a determination made by Israeli aviation or security authorities.

Historical aviation data illustrates why terminology needs careful handling. Flightradar24 reported in March that Israeli airspace was technically closed with prior permission required. At the same time, the tracker recorded 75 departing and 52 arriving aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport over a 24-hour period and described the airspace as only partially closed. That was a report from an earlier escalation cycle, not a statement of conditions in September, but it shows that a formal restriction can coexist with continuing flight activity.

What could change before September 30

Developments in the remaining period may affect both aviation operations and market expectations. A significant escalation in Iranian or proxy attacks could lead security and aviation authorities to impose additional temporary restrictions or a broader closure. Conversely, operations could continue under heightened caution and limited restrictions without a wider shutdown. The available evidence does not establish which outcome will occur.

For anyone following the contract, the most relevant information is likely to be official aviation notices, airport operating updates and EASA’s conflict-zone guidance. Those sources address the operational status directly. Market activity may show how participants are interpreting risk, but it should not be treated as confirmation that an airspace closure has been ordered.

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The CLARITY Act would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets and allocate responsibilities between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Its provisions address registration, oversight, recordkeeping, and custody in specified areas, but they do not prescribe how firms should reconcile activity or modernize legacy operational processes.

Jurisdictional clarity and operational readiness are different problems. H.R. 3633, introduced by Chairman French Hill on May 29, 2025, would establish a comprehensive market-structure framework for digital assets.

Under Section 401, the CFTC would receive exclusive regulatory jurisdiction over digital commodity cash or spot transactions that occur on or with digital commodity exchanges, brokers, and dealers required to register with the agency. The bill also provides for an expedited CFTC registration process for those entities.

The SEC would retain anti-fraud and anti-manipulation authority over transactions involving permitted payment stablecoins and digital commodities that occur on or with an SEC-registered entity.

Section 304 would require SEC registrants that are also registered with the CFTC as digital commodity exchanges, brokers, or dealers to adopt conflict-of-interest policies. It would also require the SEC and CFTC to enter into a memorandum of understanding intended to support non-duplicative oversight and appropriate information sharing.

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The Operational Gap CLARITY Act Doesn’t Touch

The bill’s regulatory framework does not itself resolve the operational pressures identified in capital markets’ back offices. An AutoRek report on capital markets operations, based on a survey of 250 senior operations, finance, and technology leaders in the United States and the United Kingdom, describes strain from rising volumes, new asset classes, data fragmentation, and shallow AI integration.

Among the report’s findings, 85% of respondents expected scalability strain as activity grows against legacy processes. Of firms working with digital assets, 59% reported disproportionate operational complexity relative to other asset classes.

The report also found that 41% of respondents identified data integration and compatibility as their top operational challenge, while firms reported losing 15.9% of operational budgets to rework driven by manual processes and spreadsheets.

The survey found that 98% of firms use AI somewhere in operations, but only 14% have fully integrated it across operations. Those findings concern operating models rather than the allocation of agency jurisdiction.

A market-structure statute can define regulatory categories and obligations without, on its own, integrating data, replacing manual workflows, or reconciling records across a firm’s systems.

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Where the Bill Does Touch Infrastructure

The bill does contain provisions relevant to operational infrastructure. Section 305 would allow brokers, dealers, transfer agents, investment advisers, investment companies, and national securities exchanges to use records from a blockchain system for existing recordkeeping requirements, subject to an SEC rulemaking required within 180 days of enactment.

Section 402 would require futures commission merchants to hold customer digital assets with qualified digital asset custodians. The congressional summary also describes requirements concerning recordkeeping and the commingling of customer assets.

These provisions address specified custody and recordkeeping matters, rather than a general framework for resolving data-integration or manual-process challenges identified by the AutoRek survey.

If enacted, the CLARITY Act would create a statutory framework for digital commodities, registration, and defined areas of SEC and CFTC authority. It would also establish requirements and rulemakings related to recordkeeping, custody, disclosures, and market intermediaries.

It would not, by itself, provide a detailed operating model for the data-integration, rework, and scalability issues reported by capital-markets operations leaders. Regulatory clarity and operational modernization can advance together, but they remain separate tasks under the evidence available here.

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he expects the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act to clear a Senate cloture vote with more than 60 votes in mid-September. Kalshi, however, puts the chance of the bill getting more than 60 votes at 22%, highlighting the gap between Armstrong’s optimism and prediction-market pricing.

Most experts had viewed the CLARITY Act as facing an uphill path after the Senate did not vote on the crypto legislation before its August recess. After pressure from President Donald Trump, a cloture vote is set for September 15, the day after senators return from the recess.

Cloture would not formally pass the bill. It would end the debate and a filibuster, paving the way for a formal vote. Cloture requires 60 votes, the same number needed to ultimately pass the CLARITY Act, making the September 15 vote a strong indication of where the bill stands.

Armstrong has pointed to the scheduled vote as a reason for his optimism. He said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would not have scheduled the vote if he did not think it would pass. He added that both sides had received roughly 90% of what they wanted in the bill.

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The Math Behind Coinbase Armstrong’s CLARITY Act Optimism

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to support the bill to reach 60 votes. That is the arithmetic behind Armstrong’s forecast and the threshold that Kalshi traders are pricing more cautiously.

Democrats have been reluctant to support the bill, calling for additional ethics provisions governing how much politicians can invest in crypto entities, particularly after Trump reported substantial crypto profits last year.

Banking groups have also raised concerns that the stablecoin provisions do not go far enough to protect the banking industry. The bill would not allow idle stablecoins to earn yield, though stablecoins could offer rewards for certain activities, such as transactions.

The bill would establish a broader regulatory framework for crypto and address questions of regulatory jurisdiction. It would give the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over spot markets for digital commodities, while both the CFTC and SEC have at times claimed jurisdiction over certain crypto markets.

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What September 15 Does and Doesn’t Decide

If cloture clears with 60 or more votes, it would end the debate and pave the way for a later formal vote. It would not itself constitute final passage of the CLARITY Act.

If cloture fails, the calendar leaves limited time before the Senate breaks again in early October for the midterm elections. That would leave the bill’s path less certain, and helps explain why the 60-vote threshold remains central to the debate over its prospects.

Kalshi traders remain far less confident than Armstrong, pricing just a 22% chance that the CLARITY Act will secure more than 60 Senate votes. This gap makes the September 15 cloture vote particularly important, as the Coinbase CEO’s forecast would require at least seven Democrats to break ranks and support the CLARITY Act bill.

If the vote reaches 60, it would give the crypto industry a significant signal that the legislation has enough momentum to move toward final passage.

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A single trial readout just doubled a company’s market value in one session. Perplexity AI predicts the rerating continues, and the price prediction places Moderna at $180 to $240 by the end of 2026 with a $210 bullish base case.

The catalyst is Intismeran, the personalized mRNA cancer vaccine. Perplexity calls it the dominant valuation driver going forward. The Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma trial met both primary endpoints. Recurrence-free survival and distant-metastasis-free survival both cleared alongside Keytruda.

That is the first late-stage validation of Moderna’s oncology platform. Perplexity frames it as potentially supporting a major melanoma-market opportunity.

Two near-term items support the case. FDA approval of mFLUSIVA adds a commercial product with revenue before oncology arrives. Even more, its reduced 2026 cost guidance improves cash-burn expectations. Together, they buy time for the oncology thesis to develop.

The risks are all data-dependent. Disappointing hazard ratios sit at the top of the list. Overall-survival data, pricing, and approval timing follow. Any of those could drive the stock toward $125 to $150.

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Moderna (MRNA) Price Prediction: Perplexity AI Predicts One Melanoma Trial Rewrites The Entire Company

The daily chart shows a four-year collapse followed by a violent reversal. Moderna peaked near $170 in mid-2024 before entering a prolonged decline. That slide carried the price from $120 down to roughly $23 by late 2025. A base formed there through the autumn.

In early 2026, the recovery began, lifting prices toward $60 by March. July produced a run to $85 before a pullback. The latest session detonated. Price gapped from $116 to close at $174.38 on the trial news.

The close reads $174.38, up 176.97%, and $111.42. The daily range covered $114.46 to $176.66, with post-market at $180.17. Support sits at $150, then $120 and $85. Resistance appears at $180, then $210, and $240.

RSI reads 92.21 with its signal line far below at 52.98. That gap of nearly 40 points is extraordinary and reflects a one-day repricing rather than a trend. The oscillator is deeply overbought. Momentum is extreme, and readings at this level rarely persist without consolidation.

Perplexity’s base case sits 20% above this close. Detailed efficacy data and regulatory discussions are what decide whether the market holds this new level.

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That can be especially useful when a stock has already repriced violently. Moderna buyers entering after the trial result are paying for information the market now knows. Event markets are about positioning while the uncertainty still exists.

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