Kalshi today lost a major ruling over whether it can evade state gambling laws, as a federal appeals court found that Nevada can stop the prediction market from allowing sports bets. While the Trump administration is trying to help prediction markets avoid state regulation, a panel of three Trump-appointed judges unanimously ruled against Kalshi in today's decision from the US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board today said the 9th Circuit "emphatically reject[ed] the view that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts application of Nevada’s gaming laws to sports-event contracts offered by Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood." Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, said that "prediction markets offering sports-event contracts constitute gambling and must comply with Nevada’s gaming laws and regulatory framework."
The judges affirmed a district court order that let Nevada enforce state laws against Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts.
Washington AG Nick Brown filed the lawsuit against Kalshi in March. (Photo courtesy of the Washington Attorney General’s Office)
A judge in Seattle ordered Kalshi to shut down large parts of its prediction market in Washington state by Sept. 2 — less than three weeks from now — and denied the New York-based company’s attempt to pause the order while it appeals the ruling.
The order by King County Superior Court Judge John McHale, issued Wednesday, requires Kalshi to geofence Washington users out of markets for sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science, and “mentions,” contracts on whether public figures will say specific words.
Kalshi can continue offering markets on commodities, climate, economics, and finance in the state. Users will also be allowed to close out positions they already hold in the prohibited categories.
The order sets a $120,000-a-day penalty if Kalshi misses the Sept. 2 deadline, although Kalshi can also submit an affidavit explaining any delay and let the court determine the final penalty.
That penalty would match what Nevada regulators are separately seeking from Kalshi in a June contempt motion for allegedly failing to comply with a similar injunction there.
In his ruling, McHale wrote that Kalshi “willfully ignored” a Washington State Gambling Commission notice from December 2025 stating that event-based contracts are not authorized in the state. He also concluded that “the public interests at stake and potential harm to consumers” outweigh harm to Kalshi from the injunction.
Kalshi disputed the premise of the ruling on Thursday, reiterating its position that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission “has exclusive jurisdiction” over the exchange.
“We respectfully disagree with the court’s decision and are considering all legal options,” spokesperson Jacki McGavick said in a statement responding to the ruling.
Attorney General Nick Brown, who brought the suit, said in a statement that Kalshi “has gotten rich promoting wagers on sports, elections, natural disasters, events related to the Iran War, and more.”
However, Kalshi said its platform does not offer markets on wildfires, war, death, or terrorism. Kalshi has disputed reporting that has grouped its platform with rival Polymarket, which has drawn scrutiny for wildfire and other markets Kalshi says it doesn’t allow.
Kalshi had asked both McHale and the state Court of Appeals to pause the injunction pending appeal, and lost at both levels: a Court of Appeals commissioner denied an emergency stay request Monday, and McHale entered his own denial Wednesday with his larger order.
Kalshi’s remaining state-court options include asking a full Court of Appeals panel to review the commissioner’s ruling, or seeking emergency review at the Washington Supreme Court.
Microsoft and Amazon both saw their stocks surge again Monday, riding a post-earnings tech wave across the stock market that pushed Amazon past $3 trillion in value for the first time.
The gains follow earnings reports last week in which both companies’ cloud platforms exceeded expectations. Microsoft said Azure grew 43%, passing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time. Amazon said AWS grew 37%, its fastest pace in 18 quarters.
Microsoft and Amazon are now the world’s fourth and fifth most valuable companies, respectively. The three ahead of them (Nvidia, Alphabet and Apple) are all headquartered in the Bay Area, although each has sizeable engineering centers in the Seattle region.
Amazon rose 4.6% in intraday trading to $284.15 as of publication time, after touching an all-time high of $287.20 earlier in the session, giving it a market value of $3.06 trillion.
Microsoft climbed 5.2% to $488.97, worth $3.63 trillion. Its rally began Thursday, when it added nearly $450 billion in market value, the largest one-day gain by any company on record.
The rallies came despite AI spending plans that have unsettled investors for much of the year. Microsoft went into earnings near a one-year low, after a $357 billion wipeout to start the year.
It’s all still coming at a huge cost. Microsoft spent a record $41 billion on capital projects last quarter and told investors to expect more than $50 billion in the current quarter. Amazon raised its 2026 forecast to about $220 billion from $200 billion, citing rising memory chip prices.
In one sign of the impact of the spending, Microsoft’s free cash flow fell 23% last quarter. Amazon’s free cash flow turned negative for the first time since 2023.
But cloud growth and other signs of demand for AI seem to have appeased investors for now.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told investors the spending reflects unmet demand: “Even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026, and I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too. In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking.”
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