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The following is a speech delivered by ASPI executive director Justin Bassi at the Australian Defense Science, Technology and Research Summit, held in Adelaide from 4 to 6 August 2026.
Just over 10 years ago, I sat in the oval office with my then boss Malcolm Turnbull and President Obama listening to them debate the Thucydides Trap. This is a theory that has made Graham Allison famous but for which, in my view, there is no modern-day example – where the established power is so anxious about the rising power that it strikes at the rising power and starts a war.
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