XRP could witness another decline before resuming its upward push, according to an Elliott Wave analysis of the 1-hour chart. The structure suggests that the correction that followed XRP's August 2026 rally may not be over yet, which leaves room for another decline before a possible move toward $2.25.
XRP may be approaching a technical confirmation that determines whether its recent consolidation develops into a larger rally toward $2.30.
Analyst Celal Kucuker has identified $1.38 as the level XRP needs to reclaim and hold to confirm what he describes as a “fake breakout.”
In a recent post on X, Kucuker said XRP must close above $1.38 today or tomorrow to confirm the setup. His chart shows XRP trading inside a large contracting triangle. The price is currently near the point where the descending resistance line and rising support line converge.
The chart places the key confirmation level around $1.37896, making the $1.38 area the immediate level to watch.
XRP is currently trading around $1.35, according to CoinMarketCap data. It is down about 2.2% over the past 24 hours and 6.5% over the last seven days.
The decline has come alongside weakness across the crypto market. Bitcoin fell below $77,000 yesterday and is down roughly 4.3% over the past week.
However, XRP’s monthly performance remains positive. The token is still up about 32% over the past month, compared with Bitcoin’s 21% gain. Much of those gains came during the explosive rally in late August, after which XRP has struggled to push through resistance.
Kucuker’s setup suggests that reclaiming $1.38 would provide the confirmation XRP needs to move out of its current consolidation structure.
The $2.30 target would represent a 70% move from XRP’s current price near $1.35. However, the chart does not suggest that XRP would necessarily reach that level immediately.
In particular, the chart shows resistance at $1.513 and $1.70, which, if reclaimed, will set the foundation for higher targets in the $2 range.
Meanwhile, a failure to reclaim $1.38 could leave XRP inside the triangle and expose the token to another test of its lower trendline.
In another post, ChartNerd told investors to “zoom out” when they start doubting whether XRP can reach higher prices. The analyst shared a chart showing that XRP’s current price pattern looks similar to patterns from previous market cycles.
ChartNerd described it as: “Same Structure: Different Cycles.”
The chart shows a large triangle that started forming after XRP’s 2018 peak and is now nearing its end. ChartNerd believes XRP will eventually break out of this long-term pattern.
Based on Fibonacci levels, the analyst sees possible targets around $8.33, $13.50, and $27. These levels roughly match the 1.272, 1.414, and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions.
ChartNerd also compared the current pattern to XRP’s price movement from 2014 to early 2017. During that period, XRP traded sideways for a long time before breaking higher and eventually reaching its previous all-time high.
Because of this, ChartNerd believes XRP’s current setup is part of a long-term market cycle, rather than just a short-term price move.
XRP price is at an important point as analysts watch to see if it can move back above key moving averages and end its recent downtrend. The coin is trading at $1.37 at press time, down 3% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.
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