Unlike a tornado or thunderstorm that can deliver destruction in minutes, El Niño exerts its influence over many months. This year, a drought accompanying El Niño has left the Amazon rainforest primed to burn, and scientists say the region has entered the early stages of what they think will be a long and severe fire season.

Starting in September 2026, satellites detected sharp increases in fire activity and smoke emissions in the central and eastern Amazon, visible in fire and emissions monitoring platforms including NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), and NASA Worldview. The region with elevated fire activity stretches from forests surrounding the commercial and transportation centers of Manaus and Santarém to the mouth of the Amazon River.

When the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image of smoke streaming from fires on both sides of the Amazon River on October 12, 2026, heavy smoke socked in Manaus, the capital of the Brazilian state of Amazonas. That day, city officials reported extremely poor air quality, with fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) values above 135 micrograms per cubic meter, the second-worst rating on a regional air quality index. The pall disrupted daily life in a city of more than 2 million people. Schools closed, and citywide events and children’s sports leagues were canceled as officials warned of hazardous air quality, according to news reports.

The burning around Santarém and Manaus is part of a “cascade” of fire in the tropics that accompanies the disrupted rainfall patterns of an El Niño, said Douglas Morton, an Earth system scientist based at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. The pattern begins along the equator with drought and peat fires in Indonesia, followed by elevated fire activity in this part of the Amazon. Morton and colleagues from the University of California, Irvine; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; and the University of Maryland detailed the pattern in a 2017 study following the destructive fire season that accompanied the 2015–2016 El Niño. They also saw the pattern play out in 2023.

A swell of fire in the tropics riding the 2026 El Niño has followed the pattern. Drought, fire, and smoke have smothered parts of Indonesia since August, with hundreds of homes razed in October and thick smoke blanketing whole islands most days. “Now, in the Amazon, we’re seeing the second domino in the cascade fall,” Morton said, referring to the uptick in fires that has begun in Pará and Amazonas.

Morton and his colleagues expect the next wave of fire to hit farther north in November and December in the Brazilian states of Roraima, northern Pará, and Amapá, as well as parts of Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname. Finally, around August and September 2027, he said, drought and fire risk will peak in the southern Amazon regions of Brazil and Paraguay.

“It’s so striking—and frustrating—that this is happening all over again,” said Morton, adding that many of the same forests that burned during the El Niño events in 2023 and 2015 are burning again. Forest fires in these rainforests are known to cause especially serious ecological damage because most species are not adapted to fire. It’s likely that some of the forest fires will burn even more intensely this time because the earlier fires partially charred trees, degrading the forest and making what remained more susceptible to burning, he added.

Morton expects the fires around Santarém and Manaus to continue burning until the rainy season arrives in December 2026 or January 2027. For the regions to the north and south, there is still time to prepare. “Given the intensity of this El Niño, this really is the year for people to avoid burning at all costs,” Morton said.

It’s so wet in the Brazilian Amazon that lightning ignites less than 1 percent of fires, so the vast majority of fires currently burning there were started by people, Morton said. But this year’s drought, worsened by El Niño, has been intense. Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology reported that Manaus rainfall levels were 95 percent less than normal in August and 60 percent less than normal in September.

The large fires in this region began as management fires—clearing shrubs from pastures or crops from fields, for instance—but have escaped and are now burning freely through the parched understory of the rainforest, he added. Analysis of satellite observations indicates there are 50 to 70 uncontrolled fires burning in the Santarém region alone, said Shane Coffield, a University of Maryland assistant research scientist at NASA Goddard.

As part of a NASA Earth Action project, Coffield is mining fire observations from VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) to identify fires that didn’t meet the threshold for inclusion in official data products distributed by FIRMS. He plans to share the locations of these “candidate fires” with scientists at MapBiomas, a multi-institutional network comprising universities, NGOs, and technology companies that maps fires and land-use change in the Amazon.

“For the area around Santarém, we’ve identified about 40 percent more fires than you’ll see in active fire counts from FIRMS,” said Coffield. Satellites often miss fires in circumstances like this due to dense smoke, clouds, and tree canopy cover, which can block the sensors from detecting the infrared signal of fires—especially lower-intensity fires spreading along the forest understory. “On some of the smokiest days, we have very few detections from MODIS and VIIRS, and we know that isn’t right.”

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Adam Voiland.

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October 12, 2026

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References & Resources

• Associated Press (2026, October 9) Wildfires in Brazil’s Amazonas state worsen air quality in Manaus. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• Chen, Y., et al. (2026) Tracking recent extremes and interannual variability of global fire emissions using a near-real-time extension to the Global Fire Emissions Database. Earth System Science Data, preprint.
• Chen, Y., et al. (2017) A pan-tropical cascade of fire driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Nature Climate Change, 7, 906–911.
• Coffield, S., et al. (2026) Leveraging additional VIIRS information to improve wildfire tracking in the western US. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115156(334).
• Coffield, S. via Google Earth Engine (2026) Fires project 403015. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• Coffield, S., et al. (2025) Tailored multi-sensor fire detection approaches to better constrain fire dynamics in tropical forests and peatlands. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• Global Fire Emissions Database (2026) Current fire situation. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• INPE (2026, October 13) Queimadas. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• Instituto Socioambiental (2026, October 9) Manaus is experiencing a horizon of smoke. Accessed October 9, 2026.
• Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (2026, April 9) Nota sobre os Destaques Meteorológicos de agosto de 2026. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• MapBiomas (2026) Brasil. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• Ministério Público (October 13, 2026) Boletim de 11 de outubro – Risco atmosférico no Amazonas. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (October 13, 2026) Lat: -1.061°, Lon: -57.334°. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• NASA Worldview (2026, October 12) Aqua Corrected Reflectance. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• Prefeitura de Manaus (2026, October 12) Nota. Accessed October 14, 2026.
• University of Maryland (2025, December 5) Improving Wildfire Tracking with Satellite Detection. Accessed October 14, 2026.

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This story is an update to the Antarctic sea ice feature in our World of Change series tracking long-term change on Earth’s surface through satellite imagery.

Unlike the Arctic—an ocean basin surrounded by land—the Antarctic is a large continent surrounded by an ocean. Because of this geography, sea ice has more room to expand during the winter. However, that ice also stretches into warmer latitudes, leading to more melting in the summer. Antarctic sea ice usually peaks in September, around the end of the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, and retreats to a minimum in February.

According to NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Antarctic sea ice in 2026 likely reached its annual maximum extent on September 14 (above). On that date, the ice covered an estimated 17.59 million square kilometers (6.79 million square miles), making it the third-lowest maximum on record.

The maps below show the average concentration of Antarctic sea ice for the month of September (left) and the following February (right) from 1990 to 2026. Opaque white areas indicate the highest concentrations, and dark blue areas are open water. The images include only areas where ice concentration was at least 15 percent, a threshold scientists commonly use to count an area as ice-covered in satellite data. Scientists refer to the total area of these regions as the “sea ice extent.”

From Record Highs to Record Lows

From 1979 until 2014, total Antarctic sea ice increased by about 1 percent per decade. Whether the increase was a sign of meaningful change is uncertain because ice extents vary considerably from year to year around Antarctica. For three consecutive years, from 2012 to 2014, satellites observed new record highs for winter sea ice extent. These highs occurred while Arctic ice was in steep decline.

The climb came to an end in 2015, and significant decreases in sea ice around Antarctica started to occur in 2016. There have since been years with small rebounds, but overall, Antarctic sea ice coverage has largely remained lower than normal. Both the record low minimum and record low maximum occurred in 2023. Scientists will continue to observe the area each year to find out if the decline is part of a long-term change or a statistical fluctuation.

Seeing Through the Clouds

To determine sea ice extent, scientists rely on satellites with passive microwave sensors that measure the microwave energy Earth naturally emits. Sea ice emits more of this energy than open water, so it stands out in microwave images. Because microwaves pass through clouds, the satellites can observe sea ice regularly, regardless of weather.

The record began in late 1978 with data collected by NASA’s Nimbus-7, followed by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites starting in 1987, and by NASA’s Aqua satellite between 2002 and 2011. In 2025, scientists began using observations from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s GCOM-W satellite. 

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

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September 14, 2026

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References & Resources

• NASA Earthdata (2026, October) Sea Ice. Accessed October 8, 2026.
• NASA Earth Observatory (2026, October 6) World of Change: Antarctic Sea Ice. Accessed October 8, 2026.
• NASA Earth Observatory (2016, September 16) Sea Ice. Accessed October 8, 2026.
• NASA Earth Science (2026, September 23) Arctic Sea Ice Reaches 2026 Annual Minimum Extent. Accessed October 8, 2026.
• National Snow and Ice Data Center (2026, September 23) Arctic sea ice has reached minimum extent for 2026; Antarctic sea ice maximum most likely reached as well. Accessed October 8, 2026.
• National Snow and Ice Data Center (2026, March 9) Antarctic sea ice extent arrives at a near-average minimum. Accessed October 8, 2026.

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This story is an update to the Arctic sea ice feature in our World of Change series, which tracks long-term change on Earth’s surface through satellite imagery.

A layer of frozen seawater caps the Arctic Ocean. This sea ice grows through the long polar winter, usually peaking in March, then melts through the summer to its annual low in September. It is a natural fluctuation that has persisted for millennia. But satellite records show the ice now covers less of the Arctic Ocean at its annual maximum and minimum than it did a few decades ago.

Sea ice in 2026 reached its annual minimum extent on September 12 (above), when it covered an estimated 4.6 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles), according to NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). That ties 2008, 2010, and 2025 for the 10th-lowest minimum in the satellite record.

The maps below pair each September since 1990 (left), around the ice’s annual minimum, with the following March (right), near its annual maximum, through March 2026.

Lower Lows, Thinner Ice

Scientists have used satellites to observe the annual growth and retreat of Arctic sea ice continuously since late 1978. While sea ice extent has declined overall during that time, the downward trend steepened in the 2000s and set off a run of record and near-record lows. Each of the past 20 summers, from 2007 through 2026, ranks among the 20 lowest minimum extents in the satellite record. The lowest occurred in September 2012.

More recently, the September sea ice extent has been relatively steady. Weather can make a big difference in how much ice melts from one summer to the next. For example, over the past decade, increased cloud cover has prevented sunlight from accelerating the melt, according to NASA scientists. Despite this recent plateau, the summer minimum remains well below the long-term average.

Across the Arctic, the ice that remains is younger and thinner. Observations show a decline in multiyear ice—that which survives at least one melt season—leaving an Arctic dominated by thinner first-year ice. Winter ice is also shrinking. The March 2026 maximum statistically tied the 2025 maximum for the lowest in the satellite record.

Cycles of natural variability such as the Arctic Oscillation are known to play a role in Arctic sea ice extent, but the decline observed throughout the satellite record cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Natural variability and rising global temperatures have worked together to melt greater amounts of Arctic sea ice. Scientists have projected an essentially ice-free Arctic could occur at least once before the middle of the 21st century.

Seeing Through the Clouds

To determine sea ice extent, scientists rely on satellites with passive microwave sensors that measure the microwave energy Earth naturally emits. Sea ice emits more of this energy than open water, so it stands out in microwave images. Because microwaves pass through clouds, the satellites can observe sea ice regularly, regardless of weather.

The record began in 1978 with data collected by NASA’s Nimbus-7, followed by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites starting in 1987 and NASA’s Aqua satellite between 2002 and 2011. Starting in 2025, scientists began using observations from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s GCOM-W satellite. The white circle at the center of each image is the “pole hole,” north of which satellite sensors have historically been unable to collect data. The sea ice estimates assume that this hole is ice-filled.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

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September 12, 2026

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References & Resources

• IPCC (2021) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Accessed October 6, 2026.
• NASA Earthdata (2026, October) Sea Ice. Accessed October 6, 2026.
• NASA Earth Observatory (2026, October 6) World of Change: Arctic Sea Ice. Accessed October 6, 2026.
• NASA Earth Observatory (2016, September 16) Sea Ice. Accessed October 6, 2026.
• NASA Earth Science (2026, September 23) Arctic Sea Ice Reaches 2026 Annual Minimum Extent. Accessed October 6, 2026.
• National Snow and Ice Data Center (2026, September 23) Arctic sea ice minimum ties for tenth lowest. Accessed October 6, 2026.
• National Snow and Ice Data Center (2026, March 26) Arctic sea ice record low maximum strikes again. Accessed October 6, 2026.

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