📉 Asia: Nikkei plunged another 3%+, breaking below 65,000 for the first time in a month as the AI/chip selloff deepens. Hang Seng held flat near 25,000, decoupling from Tokyo’s rout. Mainland China stayed soft on growth concerns.
🛢️ Oil: WTI ~$79, Brent ~$85 — near one-month highs as US–Iran tensions keep the Strait of Hormuz risk premium elevated.
🥇 Gold: XAU/USD near $3,980, still under $4,000 and headed for a 3%+ weekly loss as yields and a firmer dollar weigh.
💱 FX: EUR/USD steady around 1.1470–1.1475.
🇺🇸 US: Fed holding a cautious tone ahead of the July 29 decision. Today’s watch: University of Michigan inflation expectations.
⚠️ Volatility is elevated — trade with caution and manage risk.
🌏 Asia: Shares fell Thursday as chipmakers stumbled. Kospi slid as much as 7.6% before trimming losses (holiday Friday), Nikkei –2.8%, Topix –1.2%. Hang Seng bucked the trend, holding gains. China Q2 GDP missed at 4.3% vs 4.5% expected.
💵 FX: USD/JPY ~162.15, edging lower after Japan’s FinMin Katayama flagged readiness for currency action. EUR/USD trading choppy near 1.14, capped by cautious risk mood.
📊 US CPI cooled to 3.5% y/y (core 2.6%), first monthly drop since 2020 — Fed hike odds for July fell to just 17%, though ~50% still bet on a September move.
🌏 Asia: Kospi rocketed 7.1% on a chip rally, Nikkei +0.9%, ASX +0.2%, Hang Seng +1.6%. Shanghai dipped 0.4% after China’s Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3% y/y, missing forecasts.
💵 EUR/USD ~1.139, hovering near 1-year lows — Mideast-driven oil spike fuels ECB hike bets, but euro stays pressured.
🥇 Gold holding near $4,050/oz on safe-haven demand. 🛢️ Brent ~$85.8, WTI ~$80.1 — fresh US strikes on Iran and a Hormuz naval blockade keep oil elevated.
📉 Fed September hike odds eased to 63% post-CPI. US futures firmer despite IBM’s 25% crash on weak guidance. Eyes today on Morgan Stanley, J&J and BlackRock earnings.
📉 Asia in the red: Nikkei ‑0.6% (~66,816), Kospi down (‑207 pts), Shanghai ‑0.7%, Hang Seng ‑0.5%, Sensex ‑0.7% (77,092). Oil-driven risk-off dominates.
🛢️ Oil jumps: Brent +1.85% to $84.84, WTI +2% to $79.78, after Trump announced a 20% toll on Strait of Hormuz shipping, reviving supply-disruption fears.
💵 EUR/USD: ~1.1400–1.1414, dollar firm as Hormuz tensions boost safe-haven demand.
🥇 Gold: ~$4,000–4,050, near a two-week low, pressured by a stronger USD ahead of US inflation data.
📊 Key event today: US June CPI (8:30 ET / 15:30 Cyprus) — headline seen ~3.9% y/y (from 4.2%), core ~2.9%. A hot core print could revive Fed hike bets.
🏦 Also watch: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs & Wells Fargo open Q2 earnings season.
⚠️ High volatility expected around the CPI release — trade with caution!
🌏 Asia: Chip stocks are roaring back — Nikkei 225 up ~2%, Kospi surging over 4% as SK Hynix’s Nasdaq debut looms today. Yen firmer on hopes GPIF shifts more into domestic assets, pulling JGB yields off 3-decade highs. Japan’s June PPI hit +7.1% y/y — fastest since 2023 — keeping BOJ hike bets alive.
💶 EUR/USD: Trading near $1.146 this morning, edging up as traders price 30+ bps of extra ECB tightening this year.
🛢️ Oil: Brent holding near $78, steadying as US–Iran tensions ease and talks continue.
🥇 Gold: Back up near $4,140/oz, recovering from midweek dip as haven demand and central bank buying (China +10t in May) offset dollar strength.
🇺🇸 US: Fed’s June minutes show few members favored a hike, but inflation concerns build under new Chair Warsh. Markets still lean toward one hike by year-end.
💰 Markets: BTC opened July near $58K, a 21 month low after a brutal June, then clawed back above $63K following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s July 1 comments that inflation risks are easing. ETH traded around $1,760–1,800. US spot Bitcoin ETFs kept bleeding, about $4.5B left in June alone, the worst month since launch, though a $221.7M inflow on July 7 snapped a 10 day outflow streak. 📉➡️📈
🏛️ Politics: The CLARITY Act missed its July 4th target in the Senate. Disputes over Trump’s $1.4B crypto income disclosure, developer protections, and stablecoin yield rules remain unresolved. Polymarket odds of 2026 passage dropped to around 40 to 48%. 🗳️ Meanwhile, the EU’s MiCA framework became fully enforced on July 1, with 244 crypto firms now authorized across the bloc. 🇪🇺
🏦 Big Moves: XRP overtook USDC to become the 5th largest crypto by market cap. 🏠 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were ordered to prep crypto as mortgage collateral. Strategy (MSTR) sold over 3,500 BTC this week, its largest divestment since 2022, and for the first time its market value dropped below its actual Bitcoin holdings.
🎉 Fun Fact: This week BONK DAO got hit with a bizarre governance heist: an attacker spent $4.4M buying up BONK tokens just to win a vote, then used that voting power to push through a proposal that drained $20M from the treasury. Crypto’s version of buying the election to rob the bank. 🕵️♂️🍩
Stay sharp, stay diversified, see you next week with NordFX! 🚀
Meet DXY, the US Dollar Index — a single number that tracks the dollar’s strength against a basket of 6 major currencies (with the euro doing over half the heavy lifting 👀).
📊 Rising DXY? EUR/USD and Gold usually fall. 📈 It’s one of the most underrated tools for confirming your forex trades before you click Buy or Sell.
In our latest guide, we break down: 🔹 How DXY is actually calculated 🔹 What moves it (hint: the Fed matters — a lot) 🔹 Its correlation with gold, oil & major FX pairs 🔹 Step-by-step: how to trade it on MetaTrader 5
🌏 Asian Markets: Kospi leads regional losses, down over 4% as Samsung (–5%+) and SK Hynix slide despite Samsung beating profit forecasts. Nikkei 225 off ~1.2% to 68,883. Shanghai Composite –0.6% to 4,017, Hang Seng holds up better, +0.4% to 23,708.
⚠️ Geopolitics: Iran’s military reportedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, breaking a one-week truce — raising fresh risk to the US-Iran deal and lifting oil modestly.
💵 USD: Dollar stays soft after Friday’s weak NFP (+57K vs 110K expected, unemployment 4.2%). Markets await Wednesday’s FOMC minutes for clues on Chair Warsh’s approach.
💴 USD/JPY: Slipped back below 162.00 on the Hormuz headlines and soft Fed-hike bets.
🥇 Gold: Eased back from a two-week high near $4,175–4,188 as investors await the FOMC minutes.
🛢️ Oil: Firming modestly on Hormuz tensions, though Saudi price cuts and an OPEC+ output hike keep a lid on gains.
📅 Today’s focus: US ADP employment change, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Samsung’s earnings follow-through, and any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets enter the new week after a sharp post-NFP reset ⚡ The US dollar weakened, gold and silver bounced, bitcoin reclaimed $60,000, while Brent stayed under pressure as Hormuz flows normalised.
This week, traders will watch:
💵 EUR/USD — can the pair extend its recovery toward 1.1550? 🥇 Gold & Silver — precious metals rebound as Fed-hike expectations cool 🛢️ Brent — bearish bias remains, but geopolitical risk is still alive ₿ Bitcoin & Ethereum — crypto tries to build on ETF-driven recovery 🏦 Key event: FOMC Meeting Minutes under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
This week’s market traffic could be as intense as Shibuya Crossing at rush hour 🌧️📈
The July 4 fireworks were still smoking when the jobs data lit a bigger one. June Nonfarm Payrolls printed just 57K versus 115K expected, with April and May slashed by a combined 74K. Unemployment “fell” to 4.2%, but only because discouraged workers left the labor force, participation dropped to 61.5%, the weakest since 2021. Wages held at 3.5% y/y. Underneath the headline: a labor market losing steam.
💵 USD — Rate hike odds for September tumbled toward 50% from near 67% pre print, and the dollar just logged its worst week since April. All eyes now on CPI (July 14) and the July 29 FOMC. Expect sharp, headline driven swings.
🥇 Gold — XAU/USD snapped back above $4,150 after four weekly losses in a row, riding the weaker dollar and fading hike bets. Still far from January’s record near $5,600. $4,000 remains the line in the sand; a soft dollar keeps bulls in control for now.
🛢️ Oil — Brent near $72, WTI near $69, the calmest levels since before the US-Iran conflict began. Hormuz shipping is normalizing, Saudi and UAE exports are back close to pre war flows, and OPEC+ just added more barrels. But diplomacy is fragile, one bad headline could reignite the risk premium fast.
₿ Bitcoin — BTC sits in the low $60Ks, nowhere near 2025’s $122K peak, as fragile risk appetite and Fed uncertainty keep buyers cautious. Views are split between a bounce toward $65–70K and another leg down if data disappoints again.
🔎 Bottom line: a cooling US economy, a shaky dollar, easing but unresolved geopolitical tension, markets are one headline away from their next big move.
📊 Asian Session Asian shares traded mostly higher on light, holiday-shortened trade. MSCI Asia Pacific Index +0.3%. 🇰🇷 Kospi led gains, +1.8% on tech strength. 🇭🇰 Hang Seng and 🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite edged up, while 🇯🇵 Nikkei and Seoul tech names were choppy earlier in the session. 🇮🇳 Sensex +0.23%, Nifty +0.15% at the open despite a softer rupee.
💵 FX & Commodities USD/JPY climbed to 161.92 as trading resumed after the July 4 holiday, dollar firm on cautious sentiment. 🛢️ Oil extended losses: Brent $71.87, WTI $68.59, pressured by OPEC+’s fifth straight output hike (+188k bpd). 🥇 Gold holding near $4,180–4,190/oz, consolidating after last week’s bounce off 8-month lows.
📅 Key Drivers
Fed’s cautious tone continues to support risk appetite after last week’s soft jobs data.
US ISM Services PMI due today — watch for confirmation of slowing but resilient growth.
Iran–US talks and Strait of Hormuz supply risk still steering oil sentiment.
⚠️ Stay sharp: light liquidity from the US holiday week can mean sharper moves on headlines.
🇺🇸 USD stays soft, still digesting Thursday’s weak June jobs report: only +57K vs 114K forecast, unemployment at 4.2%. Fed’s September hike odds now near 50%, down from 67% pre-data. Note: US markets are closed today for Independence Day, so expect thinner liquidity.
💵 EUR/USD holding near 1.1450.
🥇 Gold steady around $4,150/oz, supported by the softer dollar.
🛢️ Oil extends its slide — WTI ~$67–68, Brent ~$70–71 — as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeps recovering.
🌏 Asian markets rallied on the softer US data: 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 +1.3%, back above 69,000 🇭🇰 Hang Seng +1.4% 🇮🇳 Sensex/Nifty +0.8% 🇯🇵 Yen firm on intervention chatter, capping Nikkei’s upside
📌 Focus today: thin US holiday liquidity and any fresh Iran/Hormuz headlines steering oil.
⚠️ Trade smart, manage your risk. Have a profitable Friday with NordFX! 📈
🌏 ASIA — Strong Japan, Mixed Region Tokyo closed sharply higher: the Nikkei 225 surged +2.3% to ~71,675, driven by tech and AI stocks, yen weakness at 4-decade lows, and easing Iran tensions. India’s Sensex +0.24% to 76,664 and Nifty 50 +0.21% to 23,917 in early trade. Thailand’s SET +0.85%. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite –3.05%, the session’s biggest loser. Hong Kong (SAR Establishment Day) and South Korea remain closed today.
🇺🇸 WALL STREET — Record Q2 Close US stocks wrapped a stellar first half on June 30. The Dow hit its 2nd consecutive record close at 52,319 (+0.26%), the S&P 500 gained +0.79% to 7,449, and the Nasdaq surged +1.52% to 26,214. Q2 delivered Nasdaq +21.4%, S&P 500 +14.9%, and Dow +12.9% — best quarter in 6 years. US futures are edging slightly lower this morning.
💱 FOREX — Dollar Near 1-Year Highs DXY holds around 101.15. EUR/USD trades near 1.1394 — a 1-year low — weighed down by the Fed’s hawkish stance vs. the ECB’s 2.25% deposit rate. GBP/USD ~1.3220. USD/JPY near 162.5, at its highest level in four decades. Markets are pricing ~65% odds of a Fed rate hike in September.
🥇 GOLD — Steadied Near $4,000 Gold holds around $4,000/oz — near its lowest in 8 months. Yesterday’s JOLTS data (US job openings at a 2-year high of 7.6M) reinforced hawkish Fed expectations, keeping bullion under pressure. Gold has lost ~12% in June and ~14% in Q2 — worst quarterly performance in years.
🛢️ OIL — Slide Continues WTI near $70/bbl, Brent near $73 — both logging their worst quarter since 2020 (WTI –24% in Q2). Easing Iran–US tensions, resumed Strait of Hormuz traffic, and US sanction waivers on Iranian oil continue to drag prices lower. Doha peace talks remain the key catalyst.
₿ CRYPTO — Bitcoin Under Pressure Bitcoin near $58,294 (–2.6%), with the global crypto market cap around $2 trillion — its lowest since September 2024. Strategy’s proposed $1.25B BTC liquidation continues to weigh on sentiment across the sector.
📅 TODAY’S KEY EVENTS 📊 ISM Manufacturing PMI for June — 10:00 AM ET (prior: 54.0) 🗣️ Fed Chair Warsh speaks at ECB Sintra Forum, Portugal — 13:00 GMT 🕊️ US–Iran Doha peace talks — updates expected throughout the day
⚡ TOMORROW (Thu, July 2): June Nonfarm Payrolls — market consensus ~100K; White House adviser signalled “another strong number.” US markets CLOSED Friday July 4. Short week — stay alert!
⚠️ All data as of morning July 1, 2026. Trading involves significant risk. Manage it wisely — NordFX.
🇺🇸 Overnight: Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time (+0.59%), S&P 500 +1.18%, Nasdaq +2.07% as Alphabet jumped nearly 5% on its Dow debut. Sentiment was lifted after the Supreme Court let Fed Governor Lisa Cook keep her seat for now.
🌏 Asia today: Nikkei 225 +1.64%, Kospi +3.24%, CSI 300 +1.12%, while Hang Seng slipped -1.19% and ASX 200 -0.09%. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June (vs 50.1 forecast, 50.0 in May), back in expansion on strong tech-export demand.
💱 Forex: EUR/USD around 1.1400, easing slightly after last week’s rebound, with focus on the ECB’s Sintra Forum. USD/JPY near 162.00 — its weakest level since 1986 — keeping BOJ intervention risk firmly in focus.
🛢️ Commodities: Brent ~$72.5, WTI ~$70.4, both easing as US–Iran talks resume today in Doha. Gold has slipped just below $4,000/oz (~$3,990) as markets price in possible Fed rate hikes later this year.
📅 Today’s watch: US JOLTS job openings, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence; ECB Sintra Forum continues; markets eye Thursday’s US jobs report.
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