Oil prices surge amid Middle East tensions. Crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 at 12.1% YES.

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Brent crude hits $100 as Trump reinstates tariffs. New all-time high by December priced at 20.5% YES.

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Oil prices surge amid geopolitical tensions, raising concerns for the U.S. economy. New all-time high by September 30 at 12.1% YES, by December 31 at 20.5% YES.

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Ukrainian drones targeted a logistics center in Crimea. Recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 is now at 9.5% YES.

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Iran resists US negotiation efforts amid rising oil prices. Crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 at 20.5% YES.

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Amazon server facilities in Bahrain destroyed by a bunker-penetrating warhead. Iranian military action against a Gulf state on July 30 at 45% YES.

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Iran activates air defense in Tehran amid regional tensions. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 60.5% YES.

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Trump considers a 'massive attack' on Iran amid military tensions. Iran reconstruction funding in a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026 at 28.5% YES.

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Kuwait activated air defenses as Iran targeted a US airbase. Military action against a Gulf state by July 30 at 45% YES.

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Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping push oil prices above $100 per barrel. Crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 at 20.5% YES.

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Trump administration threatens a significant attack on Iran. Iran reconstruction funding in a US-Iran deal by 2026 at 28.5% YES.

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Iran rejects the US cease-fire deal. Reconstruction funding in a US-Iran deal by 2026 at 28.5% YES.

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US military conducts 13th night of strikes on Iranian sites. Iran full airspace closure by August 31 at 58.5% YES.

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UK and Germany withdraw embassy staff from Tehran amid tensions. Military action by European countries on Iran by July at 3.5% YES.

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Fed may hike rates twice in 2026, with a 36% chance. Rate hike by September 2026 at 62% YES.

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Asian stocks expected to decline as oil prices surge past $100. Crude oil reaches new all-time high by December 31 at 20% YES.

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Ukraine's Defense Minister resigns amid strategic disputes; France pledges military aid. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 15% YES.

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Iran sent military gear and commanders to Houthi rebels in Yemen. Military action against a Gulf state by July 30 at 44.5% YES.

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Iran intercepted a US Tomahawk missile, escalating tensions. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 60.5% YES.

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Somali pirates seized a Tanzanian-flagged ship off Yemen. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30 at 22.5% YES.

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