A Bitcoin whale has moved 411.45 BTC worth nearly $34 million after holding the coins since 2013, when Bitcoin traded at around $131. The transfer, recorded on October 18, 2026, puts the holdings’ estimated value at $33.99 million, up from an estimated initial value of $54,000.

The transaction was recorded in block 972,036, with Bitcoin trading near $82,600. The coins moved from a legacy Bitcoin address to a native SegWit address. At the time of reporting, no outgoing transactions from the destination wallet or transfers to a known crypto exchange had been identified.

Bitcoin Whale Records an Estimated $33.9 Million Gain

According to the reported transaction history, the wallet received approximately 411.45 BTC on September 11, 2013.

Based on an estimated initial value of $54,000 and a transfer-time value of $33.99 million, the holdings appreciated by approximately $33.93 million. Their value increased roughly 630 times, representing an estimated gain of around 62,900%.

These calculations are based on estimated valuations rather than the owner’s confirmed purchase cost. Historical market data puts Bitcoin at approximately $135.25 on September 11, 2013, compared with the reported acquisition price of around $131.

Bitcoin Transferred to a Native SegWit Address

The transaction moved 411.45 BTC from the original address, 13Coop8xFbYj9JR9WyF5EqzGa9GiZmxs7C, to bc1q2e68j927wctfryva578hjnjejvgdvru646rvq0.

The sending address uses the legacy Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH) format, while the destination uses native SegWit, also known as Pay-to-Witness-Public-Key-Hash (P2WPKH).

The reported transaction fee was 337 satoshis, equivalent to 0.00000337 BTC, or approximately $0.28 at a Bitcoin price of $82,600.

The change in address format could indicate a wallet migration or a change in custody arrangements. However, the reason for the transfer remains unconfirmed.

Other Long-Dormant Bitcoin Wallets Move Funds

The transfer follows other significant movements involving older Bitcoin holdings in October.

On October 17, two wallets linked to coins received in 2012 and 2013 reportedly moved a combined 416.69 BTC, worth approximately $33.8 million.

In a separate transaction, a wallet that received 4,581.94 BTC in March 2020 transferred the holdings to five new addresses in October. The coins were worth approximately $377 million to $378 million at the time, compared with an estimated $40.5 million when they entered the wallet.

These transactions highlight the movement of long-held Bitcoin between addresses. However, such transfers do not necessarily indicate that the owners intend to sell. For more on how this pattern has played out before, see our guide to dormant Bitcoin wallets.

More Than 34% of Bitcoin Supply Has Remained Unspent for Five Years

On-chain supply-age data dated October 18, 2026, showed that approximately 34.2% of the measured Bitcoin supply, or 6.88 million BTC, had remained unspent for at least five years. Coins in the 10-year-plus age category accounted for approximately 18.13%.

These figures reflect the age of unspent transaction outputs, not verified ownership or investor intentions. They also do not establish that the coins are permanently lost or unavailable for future transactions.

Although recent transfers show that some older Bitcoin holdings are becoming active again, they do not by themselves indicate a broader increase in selling by long-term holders.

What Does the $34 Million Bitcoin Transfer Mean?

The market impact of the 411.45 BTC transfer remains uncertain. At the time of reporting, the funds had not been identified as moving to a known crypto exchange.

A transfer to a new wallet can reflect a change in storage or custody rather than an impending sale. If the coins are later sent to an exchange, that could indicate a potential sale, but would not confirm that one had occurred. Read more in our Bitcoin market analysis.

The wallet owner’s identity, reason for moving the Bitcoin, and plans for the holdings remain unknown.

After 13 Years, a Bitcoin Whale Moves 411 BTC Worth $34 Million was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

The United States has established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The next challenge is expanding it without spending additional taxpayer money.

In an interview, Patrick Witt discussed potential ways the government could acquire more Bitcoin, including gold revaluation, alternative acquisition strategies, and Bitcoin mining. He also addressed the long-term risks posed by quantum computing.

Together, these ideas point to a broader question: Could Bitcoin become a strategic national asset for the United States, and how could the government build its reserves responsibly?

Bitcoin as a National Security Asset

Witt connects economic security with national security.

A country vulnerable to debt pressures, financial instability, or disruptions in essential supply chains may find its strategic options limited during a crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how dependence on foreign manufacturing and supply chains can create vulnerabilities.

Bitcoin presents a different proposition. Its supply is capped at 21 million coins, and its network operates independently of any single government.

Supporters believe these characteristics could make Bitcoin valuable as a long-term reserve asset. But its volatility remains a major concern, and its effectiveness as a national reserve during a financial crisis is still unproven.

The significance is not that Bitcoin is risk-free. It is that policymakers are increasingly considering whether its monetary properties could serve a strategic purpose beyond investment returns.

The Real Challenge: Acquiring More Bitcoin

In March 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

An immediate priority is managing and securing Bitcoin already held by the federal government, much of which was obtained through asset forfeitures. The order directs the government to retain qualifying Bitcoin in the reserve rather than routinely sell it.

It also calls for exploring budget-neutral ways to acquire additional Bitcoin.

That creates the central challenge: the government wants to expand its holdings without simply relying on new taxpayer-funded purchases.

The question is therefore not only whether the United States should hold Bitcoin, but how it can legally and practically acquire more.

Several possibilities have been discussed, but they remain proposals to evaluate rather than established acquisition programs.

Could Gold Revaluation Help Fund Bitcoin?

One of the more unusual ideas raised by Witt is the potential revaluation of U.S. gold reserves.

The Treasury’s official book value for gold is based on a statutory price of approximately $42.22 per fine troy ounce, far below its modern market price.

Updating that valuation could change the government’s accounting position. Advocates have explored whether the resulting financial arrangements could help create a pathway to acquiring Bitcoin without conventional new spending.

However, revaluing gold on paper does not automatically generate spendable cash or grant the government legal authority to buy Bitcoin.

Any such approach would require careful analysis of Treasury accounting, gold certificates, applicable federal law, and spending authority. It is an idea under consideration, not a finalized policy.

Witt also discussed other potential approaches, including converting certain government receipts into Bitcoin and using underutilized, government-controlled energy resources for Bitcoin mining.

These options raise their own questions about legal authority, costs, operational feasibility, and whether they could genuinely expand federal Bitcoin holdings without creating new taxpayer burdens.

The Quantum Risk

Bitcoin’s long-term future also depends on its ability to withstand technological change.

Witt discussed the potential threat from quantum computing, which could eventually undermine some of the cryptographic systems used to secure Bitcoin and other digital infrastructure.

The concern extends well beyond cryptocurrency. Banking networks, encrypted communications, and sensitive government information could also face risks if sufficiently powerful quantum computers become available.

The timeline remains uncertain. The challenge is to prepare before the technology becomes capable of breaking cryptographic protections currently considered secure.

For Bitcoin, that means developing and adopting quantum-resistant security measures where needed, while ensuring that wallets, protocols, and custodians can transition safely.

A fixed supply may be central to Bitcoin’s design, but its long-term value also depends on the security and adaptability of the technology supporting it.

The Bigger Picture

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve raises a question much larger than whether Bitcoin’s price will increase.

Can the United States build Bitcoin reserves into a lasting strategic asset while managing the financial, legal, and technological risks?

Witt’s remarks suggest that officials are exploring possible answers. But establishing a reserve and developing a sustainable strategy to expand it are two different challenges.

The next major step may not be a large Bitcoin purchase. It may be finding a legally sound, financially responsible mechanism for increasing federal holdings without relying on additional taxpayer-funded spending.

That is the real policy challenge: turning the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve into a practical, sustainable strategy.

How the U.S. Could Expand Its Bitcoin Reserve Without Spending More Taxpayer Money was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

China’s cryptocurrency crackdown has not eliminated crypto activity. Instead, new data shows that a growing share of the country’s crypto economy is moving through peer-to-peer transactions and self-custodied stablecoin wallets, creating a market that is increasingly difficult to track through traditional exchange data.

According to Chainalysis, China’s crypto economy was worth at least $176 billion during the 2026 study period, despite the country’s longstanding restrictions on cryptocurrency services. The actual figure could be higher because China’s regulatory environment makes domestic crypto flows difficult to measure.

The most striking development is the rapid expansion of P2P stablecoin activity. The number of unique wallets sending P2P stablecoin transactions from China increased 43-fold between the first quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2026.

That figure needs some context. The 43× increase refers to the number of participating wallets, not a 43× increase in transaction volume. It nevertheless points to a substantial expansion in the number of users engaging in stablecoin transactions outside traditional centralized exchanges.

China’s Crypto Economy Is Moving P2P

China’s crypto market looks different from many other major markets. With centralized crypto services heavily restricted, users have increasingly relied on self-custody and direct transactions between individuals.

Domestic P2P activity accounted for 59.1% of China’s overall crypto economy during the study period, a roughly 3.5-fold increase in its share compared with the previous period.

Stablecoins appear to be at the center of this shift.

A significant change in domestic stablecoin P2P activity emerged around March 2025. Monthly activity began accelerating after relatively weak January and February figures and continued increasing for 13 consecutive complete month-over-month periods.

The growth was visible across several transaction sizes. Transfers below $100 increased by roughly 996%, while transactions between $100 and $1,000 rose about 1,057%. Transfers between $1,000 and $10,000 increased approximately 1,321%.

The pattern suggests that stablecoins are being used for more than large-scale investment transactions. Smaller transfers point toward potential payments, business transactions and transfers between individuals.

The Social Credit Connection

The timing has also raised questions about China’s expanding social credit infrastructure.

In March 2025, Chinese authorities released new guidelines aimed at improving and expanding the country’s social credit system. The system has increasingly intersected with financial and regulatory infrastructure, raising the possibility that greater monitoring of economic activity could influence how some individuals conduct transactions.

One possible explanation is that people facing restrictions or greater scrutiny in traditional financial channels could turn to alternative payment mechanisms. Stablecoins, particularly when held in self-custody, can provide a way to transfer value without relying directly on conventional banking or centralized crypto platforms.

However, the connection remains unproven.

The timing of the two developments is notable, but there is no evidence establishing that the expansion of the social credit system directly caused the surge in P2P stablecoin activity. Other factors, including the growing availability of stablecoins, demand for dollar-denominated assets and the need for alternative payment channels, could also be contributing to the increase.

Stablecoins Are Moving Fast

Perhaps the clearest indication of how these assets are being used comes from their velocity.

China’s self-custodied stablecoin holdings turned over at an estimated 33.2 times per year, compared with a global average of approximately 9.3 times.

Average holdings were around $3.1 billion, while approximately $104.1 billion moved across 18.1 million transfers during the study period.

That level of turnover suggests that stablecoins may be functioning less as passive investments and more as working capital or a payment mechanism.

In other words, users appear to be moving stablecoins repeatedly rather than simply holding them for long-term appreciation.

China’s experience highlights an important consequence of cryptocurrency restrictions: banning centralized exchanges does not necessarily eliminate demand for digital assets. Instead, activity can migrate toward self-custody, P2P networks and stablecoins, where transactions are harder to measure through conventional financial data.

The bigger question is whether this represents a temporary workaround to China’s crypto restrictions or the early development of a parallel digital payment economy operating largely outside traditional financial channels.

If China Banned Crypto Then Why Is Its Stablecoin Economy Exploding was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Bitcoin has started October above $84,000 after gaining 6.39% in September. The early price action has been relatively stable, but several factors could create pressure as the month progresses.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed, profit-taking is returning, and the October 31 Mt. Gox repayment deadline could add potential supply to the market. At the same time, whale deposits to exchanges have declined and on-chain risk remains moderate.

These mixed signals make the next few weeks important for Bitcoin’s price trend.

Bitcoin Has Held Up Better Than Its October History

Bitcoin’s first three days of October have historically been one of its weaker short-term periods, with an average decline of 0.66%.

This year, BTC has performed better. Bitcoin closed September at $83,574 and October 3 at $84,743. From the October 1 close to October 3, BTC declined only 0.14%.

By October 4, Bitcoin was trading near $85,132, around 1.86% above its September close.

However, holding above $84,000 does not remove the risks facing the market. If demand weakens, the same levels that currently act as support could become important areas to watch on the downside.

ETF Demand Is Losing Momentum

One of the clearest concerns is the slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF demand.

The 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $998.95 million on September 21, their largest daily inflow in almost a year. But inflows declined during the following five sessions, falling to $31.07 million on September 28.

On September 30, the funds recorded $148.69 million in net outflows, ending a nine-day inflow streak.

ETF flows turned positive again on October 1, with $102.67 million in net inflows. However, the overall pace remained much lower than the previous week.

The funds recorded just $51.25 million in net inflows across the four sessions from September 28 to October 1, compared with $2.39 billion during the previous week.

Trading activity has also declined. Daily trading volume across the 12 funds fell from $4.57 billion on September 21 to $1.97 billion on October 1.

If ETF demand continues to weaken, it could make it harder for Bitcoin to sustain an extended move higher.

On-Chain Risk Has Not Reached Extreme Levels

The on-chain picture is more balanced.

Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio is around 2.5. This is well above the 1.0 level historically associated with widespread capitulation but remains below the 10+ readings seen during periods of stronger profit-taking.

The 7-day and 30-day averages are also moving higher.

The Sell-side Risk Ratio is around 40.1 after falling sharply earlier in 2026. Its recent recovery indicates that realized profit-taking is returning as Bitcoin rises.

However, the metric remains below the levels historically associated with market overheating and major distribution.

This means the on-chain data is not currently showing a major warning signal. The concern is whether these indicators continue rising alongside price and eventually move toward historical risk zones.

Whales Are Providing Some Support

Whale activity provides a counterpoint to the weaker ETF data.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin whales ended a period of net deposits to exchanges in late August. The period lasted more than three months, roughly twice as long as any other similar period since 2023.

Since then, whale exchange flows have remained negative.

Lower exchange deposits can reduce immediate selling pressure if large holders continue to keep their BTC away from exchanges.

This is one reason the current market does not yet show a clear distribution pattern.

Analysts Remain Bullish

Despite the potential risks, several analysts continue to expect higher Bitcoin prices.

Nansen’s CEO does not expect Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 again. His view is based on continued government spending, monetary expansion and Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply.

Raoul Pal also remains positive on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. He views BTC as an important monetary asset for the emerging digital and machine economy. He points to rising open interest and funding rates as signs that speculative activity is returning, while broader liquidity and institutional adoption could support further gains.

Michaël van de Poppe is focused on the $85,000 level. He believes a sustained move above that price could lead to stronger upward momentum, with $90,000 as a potential next target.

These views provide a bullish outlook, but they depend on Bitcoin maintaining demand and avoiding a significant increase in selling pressure.

Mt. Gox Could Add Supply Later This Month

Mt. Gox remains one of the biggest event risks for Bitcoin in October.

Arkham data shows that Mt. Gox-labeled wallets held around 34,387 BTC, worth approximately $2.88 billion.

The current court-approved deadline requires creditor repayments to be completed by October 31.

Another extension would keep the remaining Bitcoin outside the market. If distributions take place, some creditors could sell their BTC, potentially increasing short-term supply.

The previous deadline was also extended in October 2025, just four days before the scheduled cutoff.

October History Is Positive, But Not Guaranteed

Bitcoin’s historical October performance is generally strong.

From 2013 through 2025, Bitcoin recorded an average October return of 18.64%, with a median return of 12.73%.

The strongest October gains include 60.79% in 2013, 47.81% in 2017 and 39.93% in 2021.

However, Bitcoin also fell 12.95% in October 2014, 3.83% in 2018 and 3.69% in 2025.

The historical data therefore supports a positive seasonal trend but does not remove the risks facing the market.

What Could Show Up on the Bitcoin Chart?

Bitcoin enters October with a mixed setup.

The price is holding above $84,000, whale exchange deposits have declined and on-chain risk remains moderate. But ETF demand has weakened, profit-taking is increasing, and the Mt. Gox deadline could introduce additional supply.

For the bullish trend to continue, Bitcoin needs to maintain the 84,000–85,000 area and attract stronger demand.

A sustained move above $85,000 could support the next move toward $90,000, as some analysts expect. On the other hand, continued weakness in ETF flows or increased selling pressure could make the $84,000 area an important test.

For now, Bitcoin’s October trend is still intact. But the market has several problems to work through, and those risks could become visible on the price chart if demand begins to weaken.

Bitcoin Looks Strong in October, But These Problems Could Change the Trend was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Billions of dollars worth of tokens are scheduled to unlock throughout October, with one massive release accounting for more than $1 billion.

October could become a significant month for crypto token supply, with more than a dozen major unlocks scheduled throughout the month.

According to data shared by Dami-Defi, the combined value of the listed October unlocks runs into the billions of dollars. But the numbers reveal an important distinction: the largest unlock by dollar value is not necessarily the largest event when measured against a token’s existing supply or market size.

TIA Leads October’s Unlock Calendar

The biggest event comes at the end of the month.

Celestia (TIA) is scheduled to unlock approximately 175 million tokens on October 30, representing around 17.68% of its total supply. Based on the figures in the schedule, the unlock is valued at approximately $1.08 billion, making it the largest single token unlock in October by dollar value.

That puts TIA well ahead of the other major events on the calendar.

RAIN follows with a scheduled October 10 release of approximately 37.2 billion tokens, valued at roughly $683 million to $785 million in the cited data. The release represents about 3.2% of RAIN’s total supply.

ASTER and ENA Add to the Supply Wave

October 5 brings two major unlocks.

ASTER is scheduled to release approximately $503.6 million worth of tokens, equivalent to around 4% of its circulating supply.

Meanwhile, ENA is scheduled for an unlock of approximately 1.41 billion tokens, valued at around $212 million, representing roughly 14.3% of its circulating supply according to the cited schedule.

These numbers show why looking only at dollar value can be misleading. A $200 million unlock can represent a much larger relative increase in available supply than a much bigger dollar release.

The Full October Token Unlock Schedule

Why October’s Unlocks Matter

The calendar highlights two different ways to measure an unlock.

Dollar value shows how much capital is represented by the newly released tokens. Percentage impact shows how large that release is relative to the token’s existing supply or market size.

That distinction is particularly visible with SCR. Its scheduled unlock is only around $14 million, far smaller than TIA, RAIN or ASTER. Yet the cited data puts the release at roughly 43.6% of its market cap, making it one of the most notable events when measured proportionally.

October, therefore, is not simply about one giant $1 billion unlock. It is a month filled with releases of very different sizes and potential supply impacts.

For crypto traders and market watchers, the key dates may be worth keeping on the calendar — especially October 5, October 10, October 20 and October 30, when several of the larger or more significant unlocks are scheduled.

As the month approaches, the focus will likely remain on how these newly unlocked tokens enter the market and how each project’s supply dynamics evolve.

October Is Bringing More Than $3 Billion in New Crypto Supply was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.