Bitcoin Magazine
Bitwise Raises Bitcoin Target to $1.6 Million as Institutions Keep Buying
Bitwise Asset Management this week released its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, raising its 2036 base-case price target for bitcoin to $1,599,766 from $1.3 million a year earlier.
The forecast implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate from the roughly $83,557 price the firm used as of September 30, 2026. Bitwise’s bear case is $130,686 and its bull case is $3.67 million.
The base case rests on three arguments. Institutional investors will keep adding bitcoin to portfolios. New supply stays fixed on a predictable schedule. Rising government debt will push investors toward assets that cannot be printed.
Bitwise estimates that institutions controlling about $147 trillion could allocate 1% to 5% of their portfolios to bitcoin, which the firm says would mean $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion of purchases. The network issues about $14 billion in new coins per year, and Bitwise argues that gap will push prices higher.
Institutional plumbing is already expanding. U.S. spot bitcoin ETPs hold about $108 billion, according to the report. Banks and brokerages are building custody and trading services, and a recent report describes sovereign wealth funds and family offices buying during the 2026 decline.
Regulators are also moving. A Federal Reserve capital proposal aimed at easing bank custody rules could widen access for large institutions, if adopted.
The past year tested that thesis. Bitcoin fell 53.4% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080 to a June 30, 2026 low of $58,717. Bitwise calls that drawdown the shallowest in the asset’s history. Prior cycle declines were 77%, 84% and 86%.
Whether the shallow decline signals a new pattern or a pause is less settled. Bitwise expects the four-year cycle to weaken as the investor base broadens. Others see the cycle still at work.
VanEck argues the current slump follows the historical halving pattern, and Fidelity has pointed to a possible floor around November 2026 if past timing holds. NYDIG has said a repeat of earlier bear markets could push the cycle low near $38,000 to $39,000. Cathie Wood has argued the market is nearly through the downturn. Each view carries a different price floor and timeline.
Volatility is the other pillar of the forecast. Bitwise models a 27.8% average volatility over the decade, the midpoint between today’s level and its 2036 expectation. Grayscale’s research head recently put one-year volatility at 43%, against a 10-year average of 64%, and lower than the volatility of 19% of S&P 500 companies. Charles Schwab’s research found the asset remains prone to sharp drawdowns despite the lower readings. A Deutsche Bank analyst has described the trend as a sign of a maturing market.
Bitwise also reports that bitcoin’s correlation with gold reached a record 0.58 in September 2026. The firm expects that relationship to deepen, which positions bitcoin as a store-of-value asset. That link cuts both ways. If gold weakens, bitcoin may lose the support it gained from the same investor demand. Gemini has predicted that at least one country will shift part of its gold reserves into bitcoin in 2026, a forecast that has yet to materialize.
The report is candid about what could go wrong. Bitcoin’s track record is short. Its software was developed in 2008 and 2009, trading began on public exchanges in 2010, the first institutional product with bitcoin exposure launched in 2014, and spot ETPs arrived in 2024.
Bitwise writes that forecasts built heavily on history carry uncertainty because future returns may differ from the past. Regulation is a second concern. The Clarity Act’s failure in Congress, which the report traces to Democratic concerns about ethics provisions, shows that progress can stall, even as the firm argues recent advances are unlikely to be rolled back.
Technology is a third. Quantum computing, and mathematical advances accelerated by AI, could threaten the cryptography that secures bitcoin wallets. Bitwise says the network will need a major upgrade at some point, and holders who fail to move funds to new addresses could be exposed. The developers have made progress over the past year, the report says, but major issues remain unresolved.
Bitcoin’s price is near $80,500.
This post Bitwise Raises Bitcoin Target to $1.6 Million as Institutions Keep Buying first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.
TL;DR: Bitwise’s BWOW Dogecoin ETF reached its announced October 22 liquidation distribution date, with remaining shareholders due cash based on the fund’s net asset value.
For investors who held the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF past its final day of trading, the exit is now a cash-redemption process rather than a normal market order. The fund's previously announced liquidation calendar points to October 22 for distribution of proceeds to remaining holders.
Bitwise told investors in September that BWOW would cease trading on the NYSE Arca after October 14. The sponsor subsequently planned to liquidate the portfolio and distribute the value of remaining holdings through investors' brokerage accounts, using an October 21 net asset valuation.
An ETF closing is not the same as the cryptocurrency underlying its strategy disappearing. Dogecoin continues to trade in the broader market; the BWOW product is the investment vehicle being wound down.
Shareholders who sold before the final trading deadline exited through the exchange. Those still holding shares at liquidation are due cash based on the fund's applicable net asset value, subject to normal broker processing arrangements and the terms laid out in the regulatory filing.
The SEC filing says distributions are expected on or around October 22. That wording matters: a scheduled distribution is not proof that every brokerage account has already been credited by the time an article is published.
Bitwise described the closure as part of its decision to optimize the product range. That should not be turned into an unsupported claim about the specific reasons for every investor's decision to buy or sell the fund.
Crypto investment products attract headlines when they launch, especially when a fund offers convenient exposure to a popular token. The exit process is less glamorous but equally important. A sponsor needs to manage trading cutoffs, portfolio liquidation, calculation of value and communication to holders.
A security can provide exposure to a digital asset without offering the same rights as directly holding coins in a wallet. Investors therefore need to understand how a redemption is processed and whether receiving cash may create a taxable event under their circumstances.
There are also lessons for issuers. New products compete for liquidity, attention and sufficient assets to justify their ongoing operating costs. The existence of an exchange listing does not guarantee a fund will remain open indefinitely.
This week's scheduled distribution provides a concrete reminder of that lifecycle. It is a corporate-action story about one ETF, not evidence that Dogecoin itself has undergone a protocol change or lost its entire market.
Source: www.sec.gov original announcement or data.
Related Reading: crypto exchanges; Bitcoin; crypto custody.
Written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
TL;DR: Bitwise filed a supplemental SEC comment seeking clearer protection for firms that rely on token-status filings. The October 21 letter develops its earlier proposal; it is an industry request, not an adopted rule.
Bitwise is pressing the Securities and Exchange Commission to answer a question that matters to fund managers: when can a firm rely on somebody else’s determination that a crypto asset has separated from an investment contract?
The asset manager’s October 21 supplemental letter focuses on that reliance problem in the SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets framework.
It asks the commission to distinguish an issuer’s filing of Form TR from the point at which a separate market participant can rely on an unchallenged filing. It also seeks protection for reasonable, good-faith determinations if a later challenge arises, and asks for the treatment to carry through relevant investment-company and investment-adviser definitions.
Bitwise’s original October 19 response explains its position as a company that builds investment products using crypto assets rather than issuing those assets itself. Whether an asset could be treated as a security affects decisions about which products can hold it.
The practical concern is that a manager may need to make those decisions using public information, without access to all the records held by an issuer or development team.
A reliance framework would define when public filings can support that decision and what knowledge would prevent a firm from relying on them. That is distinct from declaring that any particular token is outside securities law.
The supplement also argues that filing Form TR should not itself be treated as an admission about the asset’s previous legal status. Its requests concern the consequences of using the proposed process, not simply the form’s availability.
The document is hosted in the SEC’s comment file, but its arguments belong to Bitwise. Publication there is not an endorsement by the commission.
The distinction is especially relevant to headlines about regulatory certainty. An industry participant can identify a problem and propose a detailed solution while the outcome remains undecided.
For fund managers, the issue to watch in the eventual rules is how responsibility is divided between the party making a token-status filing and the firms using it to construct financial products. Bitwise’s latest submission makes that division the center of its case.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Bitcoin Magazine
Jeff Park: What The AI Pain Trade Means For Bitcoin
From Strategy and Strive to Google and Super Micro, companies are turning to preferred securities to fund their growth. Jeff Park explains why digital credit is set to become a main fixture of investors accessing income. He also weighs in on Anthropic’s IPO, why liquidity is at a premium, and why knowing value, not just price, is the hardest skill in investing.
Chapters:
0:00 – Jeff Park on Record Stock Volatility and Market Dispersion
1:53 – Why Owning Zero Bitcoin Could Be the Bigger Risk
3:05 – Bitcoin Rising With 10-Year Yields Above 5%
3:43 – Rethinking the 60/40 Portfolio and the Risk-Free Rate
5:02 – Bitcoin as Collateral and the Rise of Bitcoin Income
6:02 – The GENIUS Act Becomes an Implementation Story
7:37 – Where Stablecoin Demand Will Come From
9:18 – Tokenization, Collateral Mobility and the BNY–Citadel Repo
12:11 – MSCI, Strategy and Booming Demand for Bitcoin Preferreds
15:19 – Anthropic’s IPO and Why Liquidity Is at a Premium
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Jeff Park: What The AI Pain Trade Means For Bitcoin first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
Bitwise Head of Research: Sovereigns Selling Gold for Bitcoin | Ryan Rasmussen
When Bitcoin fell from $125K to $60K, not one of the 15 major institutions Bitwise interviewed sold, and many bought more. Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, breaks down the firm’s first institutional crypto adoption report, covering pensions, endowments, foundations, and sovereign wealth funds, and why they treat Bitcoin alongside gold as a hedge against debasement.
Chapters:
0:00 Ryan Rasmussen on Bitwise’s Institutional Crypto Adoption Report
0:49 Why No Institutions Sold Bitcoin During the Bear Market
1:45 Wells Fargo’s 2–3% Bitcoin Allocation and the Debasement Thesis
3:45 Fidelity, BlackRock, and 2–8% Bitcoin Allocations
4:50 How ETFs Made This Bitcoin Bear Market Shallower
6:24 $2.5B in Weekly ETF Inflows and a New Wave of Capital
7:06 Why Bitwise Believes the Bitcoin Bottom Was $60K
9:36 Why Institutions Hold Both Bitcoin and Gold
11:37 Sovereign Wealth Funds Selling Gold to Buy Bitcoin
15:17 Why Bitcoin Isn’t Correlated to Bonds, Gold, or Stocks
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post Bitwise Head of Research: Sovereigns Selling Gold for Bitcoin | Ryan Rasmussen first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
Bitcoin Magazine
André Dragosch: Why Bitcoin’s Fair Value is $197,000
The 10-year Treasury yield is spiking, and Bitwise’s André Dragosch has a rule of thumb for when that becomes dangerous: 80 basis points in 20 trading days. He explains why the speed of the move matters more than the level, how a stock market correction could force a Fed pivot, and why that pivot could be the last domino before a genuine Bitcoin bull market.
Chapters:
0:00 Operation Choke Point 2.0 and Crypto’s Shift to Republicans
0:37 Will Democrats Stop Fighting Bitcoin and Crypto?
1:53 Hunter Biden on Elizabeth Warren’s Crypto Stance
2:44 Blockchain in the Age of AI and Bitcoin Going to Zero
3:34 Why Hunter Biden Launched a Meme Token
4:57 Bitcoin for the Unbanked and Cross-Border Payments
5:52 Hunter Biden on Michael Saylor and Strategy
7:50 Crypto Payments for His Art and the Blockchain Art Economy
9:02 Global Bitcoin Adoption and the Meme Economy
11:20 Is Fiat a Sham? Banks, Argentina, and Wall Street
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post André Dragosch: Why Bitcoin’s Fair Value is $197,000 first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
**ID:** B25-08
**Site:** Bitcoinist
**Status:** READY
**Author:** Bitcoinist Editorial Team
**Focus Keyword:** Bitwise
**Image Keyword:** Fund
**Category:** Technology
**Tags:** Bitwise, Vise, Crypto ETFs, Financial Advisors, Portfolios
**Primary Source:** https://bitwiseinvestments.com/newsroom
That is the main selling point.
Crypto allocations have often been managed in isolation.
An adviser may hold a Bitcoin ETF or another digital-asset product for a client, but the position can sit outside the normal process used to rebalance stocks, bonds and alternative investments.
Vise wants to remove that separation.
The Bitwise models can be placed inside the same household portfolio as equities, fixed income and other assets.
From there, Vise handles ongoing allocation, rebalancing and tax-management work alongside the rest of the account.
Bitwise provides the crypto research and model construction.
Vise provides the adviser-facing portfolio infrastructure.
The platform says it supports more than 135,000 accounts across wealth-management firms representing over $140 billion in platform assets.
Bitwise says it manages more than $9 billion in client assets.
Model portfolios are already common in traditional wealth management.
Instead of every adviser independently selecting and weighting individual funds, a model provides a standardized allocation that can then be adjusted around client risk and objectives.
Bitwise is applying that structure to crypto-themed exchange-traded products.
That potentially makes digital-asset exposure easier for advisers to manage across hundreds or thousands of client accounts.
The timing matters.
Third-party model portfolio assets have grown rapidly, while spot crypto ETFs have given advisers regulated products that fit far more naturally into existing brokerage infrastructure.
The remaining problem is portfolio integration.
A Bitcoin or Ethereum allocation still needs sizing, monitoring and rebalancing.
Bitwise and Vise are essentially trying to turn that work into another routine part of portfolio management.
That is a quieter form of crypto adoption than somebody opening an exchange account.
It may also be the version that reaches far more conventional investors.
*This article was written by the News Desk and edited by [Samuel Rae](https://bitcoinist.com/author/samuelrae/).*
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