Bitcoin Magazine

VanEck: Bitcoin’s Summer Lull Masks a Tightening Supply Base

Bitcoin spent the past month in a holding pattern around $63,700, and VanEck’s latest Bitcoin ChainCheck reads the setup as a cautious pause rather than a bottom, with derivatives flashing fear, miner economics near multi-year lows, and long-term holders tightening their grip.

The mid-July report frames the moment as consolidation, not recovery. Bitcoin closed July 12 at $63,742, flat against a month earlier yet 33% off its six-month high and 14% below its 200-day moving average near a bitcoin price of $74,000. 

The pause caps two monthly declines, a 3.6% dip in May and a 20.5% drop in June. 

Trading thinned into the summer. Spot volume averaged about $5.1 billion a day over the 30-day window, down near 29% from the post-2019 norm, a softness the firm notes has marked June through August in each of the past six years. 

Realized volatility fell to 30.4% on an annualized basis, under the trailing-year 43% level and well beneath the long-run average near 81%.

Derivatives flash fear, not panic

VanEck reads the derivatives complex as defensive. The one-month put/call implied volatility skew widened to +11.4 percentage points, an 83rd-percentile mark since 2021, and traders appear content to fund put purchases with the sale of calls. 

The firm reads that as fear rather than capitulation. Total options premium eased 23% to $613.6 million, and the put/call premium ratio climbed to 1.49, against an average near 0.71.

Perpetual-futures funding tells a similar story. The rate sits near +4.5% on a 30-day average, about half the long-run +8.4%, a sign that positioning stays far from bullish after a spring stretch in which traders were paid to hold shorts. 

VanEck maps both signals to below-average forward returns across the 30-to-180-day window. It flags two markers of a true bottom that have not arrived: a skew past +15 points, or funding that flips negative. Until one appears, the firm sees near-term downside pressure over a quick rebound. 

VanEck has pointed to negative funding as a bullish tell in past notes.

Bitcoin ETP outflows and shaken treasury confidence

Demand ran negative on the month, a drop the report ties to exchange-traded product outflows. U.S. spot ETPs shed 40,010 BTC, worth about $2.40 billion, while corporate treasuries added 2,343 BTC and miners kept 1,204 BTC. Exchange balances rose to fill the gap. 

The report also charts shaken confidence among digital asset treasuries after Strategy used $1.38 billion to retire convertible notes, a move that left the company with a $900 million reserve and pushed it to its first bitcoin sales since 2022. Those sales, VanEck writes, fed the negative flows across the treasury cohort.

The on-chain picture cuts the other way. The share of bitcoin held longer than a year reached 60.8% of supply, a figure that has climbed through the price drop from 59.1% six months earlier. Another 17.7% of supply sits in the six-to-twelve-month band, coins that graduate into the long-term bucket if they stay put. 

VanEck projects the long-term share reaches about 62% in three months and nears 63% in six. Regimes with a long-term share above 60% and rising have lined up with above-average returns across horizons in the firm’s tests, an echo of its prior finding that whales kept holding through the selloff. 

Selling, the report finds, concentrates in the middle of the age curve, while the youngest and oldest coins stay still. Profitability metrics run cold, with net unrealized profit at the 17th percentile and 53% of supply in profit against a four-year average of 76%.

Miner economics near multi-year lows

Miner economics form the report’s grimmest section. Network hash rate held near record highs around 930 EH/s as price fell, a mix that pushed implied hashprice to about $30.6 per petahash per second per day, near multi-year lows. 

Daily miner revenue averaged $28.5 million, down 39.5% year over year, a level that puts lower-efficiency rigs at or below breakeven. Miner-held bitcoin stayed near 1.785 million, a sign of steady sales of new coins over capitulation.

The pivot to artificial-intelligence hosting runs through the section. VanEck highlights TeraWulf’s 20-year, $19 billion lease with Anthropic and CleanSpark’s $6.6 billion deal as top unlevered yields, part of a build-out the firm has tied to a $50 billion near-term funding gap. 

Miner equities have dropped about 42% from 52-week highs on higher rates, a New York pause on data-center construction, and doubt over AI returns. 

The firm keeps its conviction, and points to richer contract terms, new AI deals, and hyperscaler spending as reasons the de-rating overstates the risk. 

It also notes bitcoin correlation across the group has stepped down, a sign the market prices the names on their own merits. That optimism is not universal across the market; some analysts have argued an AI pivot alone will not rescue struggling miners.

VanEck sees a market that leans toward soft returns over the near term, held back by cautious derivatives and weak miner cash flow, yet supported by a supply base that keeps tightening. For patient holders, the firm writes, the structural picture stays constructive.

This post VanEck: Bitcoin’s Summer Lull Masks a Tightening Supply Base first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

VanEck Ethereum ETF Fee Waiver Shows Issuers Are Already Fighting For First-Mover Flows is the kind of crypto story that looks simple at headline level but becomes more useful once you place it inside the wider market backdrop. The closer Ethereum ETFs get to launch, the more the story shifts from regulatory permission to market share.

The reason it deserves attention today is not that one announcement or filing magically changes the whole market. It is that the update adds another data point to a sector still trying to work out where capital, users, and regulation are actually moving.

For more details, visit the official SEC platform.

TL;DR

• VanEck updated its Ethereum ETF registration with fee waiver details.
• The waiver structure is designed to make the fund more attractive at launch.
• Pricing is becoming one of the key battlegrounds for spot ETH products.

The ETF Race Is Getting More Competitive

Fund fees matter when products offer similar exposure.

ETF issuers often use launch waivers to capture assets quickly.

ETF stories can look repetitive from the outside, but the details matter. A fee waiver, a flow reversal, or a new filing can change how professional allocators compare products. In a market where several funds offer similar exposure, small changes in cost or daily flows can become meaningful signals.

What Traders Should Watch Next

The filing gives traders another clue about how competitive the Ethereum ETF market could become.

That is why traders keep watching the paperwork and the flow tables. They show where real money is moving, not just where social sentiment is loud.

For Bitcoinist readers, the practical takeaway is to avoid treating this as an isolated headline. The stronger read is to connect it with the current market environment: liquidity is still selective, regulatory pressure has not disappeared, and the projects that keep shipping useful updates are the ones most likely to hold attention when the cycle gets noisy.

That does not mean the story should be stretched beyond what the source supports. The cleaner approach is to keep the facts tight, explain the mechanism, and show readers why it may matter if follow-up data confirms the same direction over the next few sessions.

In other words, this is a development to watch rather than a guaranteed turning point. Crypto moves quickly, but the useful signals are usually the ones that still make sense after the first reaction fades.

The important thing for readers is context. A single development rarely defines the market on its own, but a series of source-backed updates can show where momentum is building. That is why this article keeps the focus on the specific mechanism in play, the source behind it, and the reason traders or builders may care today.

This article is based on information from sec.gov.

This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.

This report is based on information from SEC. at SEC

VanEck Ethereum ETF Update Adds More Fee Pressure To The Fund Launch Race is the kind of crypto story that looks simple at headline level but becomes more useful once you place it inside the wider market backdrop. The Ethereum ETF race has moved beyond the question of whether products can launch and into the more practical question of which issuer can win assets first.

The reason it deserves attention today is not that one announcement or filing magically changes the whole market. It is that the update adds another data point to a sector still trying to work out where capital, users, and regulation are actually moving.

For more details, visit the official SEC platform.

TL;DR

• VanEck amended its spot Ethereum ETF registration materials.
• The filing includes a fee waiver structure designed to make the product more competitive.
• Ethereum ETF issuers are now fighting on pricing as much as approval timing.

The ETF Race Is Getting More Competitive

Fee waivers are a classic way to attract early flows when several similar products compete at once.

Investors and advisers tend to compare cost aggressively when funds track the same underlying asset.

ETF stories can look repetitive from the outside, but the details matter. A fee waiver, a flow reversal, or a new filing can change how professional allocators compare products. In a market where several funds offer similar exposure, small changes in cost or daily flows can become meaningful signals.

What Traders Should Watch Next

The filing adds another data point to the emerging Ethereum ETF pricing war.

That is why traders keep watching the paperwork and the flow tables. They show where real money is moving, not just where social sentiment is loud.

For NewsBTC readers, the practical takeaway is to avoid treating this as an isolated headline. The stronger read is to connect it with the current market environment: liquidity is still selective, regulatory pressure has not disappeared, and the projects that keep shipping useful updates are the ones most likely to hold attention when the cycle gets noisy.

That does not mean the story should be stretched beyond what the source supports. The cleaner approach is to keep the facts tight, explain the mechanism, and show readers why it may matter if follow-up data confirms the same direction over the next few sessions.

In other words, this is a development to watch rather than a guaranteed turning point. Crypto moves quickly, but the useful signals are usually the ones that still make sense after the first reaction fades.

The important thing for readers is context. A single development rarely defines the market on its own, but a series of source-backed updates can show where momentum is building. That is why this article keeps the focus on the specific mechanism in play, the source behind it, and the reason traders or builders may care today.

This article is based on information from sec.gov.

This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.

This report is based on information from SEC. at SEC

Solana is now formally in the U.S. spot ETF conversation after a VanEck-linked proposal reached the SEC through a Cboe BZX rule filing.

For more details, visit the official SEC platform.

TL;DR

• A Solana spot ETF proposal has entered the SEC process through a Form 19b-4 filing.
• The filing argues that SOL should be treated as a commodity-style crypto asset rather than a security.
• Approval is not guaranteed, but the filing expands the ETF race beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The filing is important because spot crypto ETFs in the U.S. have so far been dominated by Bitcoin, with Ethereum products forming the next major battleground. Solana entering the process gives investors a clearer view of which altcoins institutions think can support a regulated fund wrapper.

Solana Gets Its ETF Test

VanEck has been one of the more aggressive asset managers in digital assets, and the Solana filing fits that pattern. The central question is whether the SEC will accept the argument that SOL has enough market structure, liquidity, and regulatory clarity to sit inside a spot ETF product.

That is not a small hurdle. Bitcoin and Ethereum already had deep futures markets, years of institutional coverage, and extensive regulatory discussion before their fund structures advanced. Solana has strong network usage and a large market, but it also comes with a different history around outages, token distribution, and how regulators classify major altcoins.

Why The Filing Still Matters

Even if approval takes time, the filing changes the conversation. It shows that major issuers are no longer waiting for the SEC to define the next wave of crypto ETF assets. They are forcing the question directly through the rule-change process.

For Solana, that matters beyond the immediate price reaction. ETF filings can reshape how advisers, institutions, and trading desks talk about an asset. SOL is no longer only being pitched as a high-speed chain for DeFi and memecoins. It is now being positioned as the next serious candidate for regulated U.S. fund exposure.

This report is based on the SEC filing for the proposed Solana ETF rule change.

This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.

Source: SEC