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Bitcoin Magazine

BTC Hash Ribbon Signal Flipped: Bitcoin Miners Show the Bottom Might Be In

The hash ribbon recovered on August 26 and has held for 61 days. Historically, Bitcoin was higher one year later in six of seven counted recoveries, about a 72% edge. Sean Hagan breaks down the signal, the misses (15 of 231, notably April 2021 at -17%), the January signal still 12% underwater, and why the 30-day hash rate at roughly 1.1 ZH, up 13% from July, says the worst of the miner stress is behind us. Grace Remington asks the right question: if miners left voluntarily, is the signal still reliable?

Chapters:
0:00 The Hash Ribbon Explained: Counting Miner Capitulation Days Since 2011
0:26 A New Record: 223 of 365 Days in Capitulation vs. 141 in 2012
1:01 Why This Cycle Is Different: Miners Left for $100 Billion in AI Contracts
1:48 More Like the 2021 China Ban Than 2018 or 2022
2:14 The Timing Still Fits: Capitulation Peaked 56 Days After the June 30 Low
2:37 Hash Ribbon Recovered 61 Straight Days, Hash Rate Up 13% From the Low
3:20 Price Agrees: MVRV Above Its Average and Bitcoin Above the 50-Week
3:58 Is the Signal Reliable If Miners Left Voluntarily? Higher 6 of 7 Times
5:18 Could Hash Rate Come Back From AI as the Build-Out Hits Bottlenecks?
6:52 A Backward-Looking Chart With a 70%-Plus Directional Track Record

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

This post BTC Hash Ribbon Signal Flipped: Bitcoin Miners Show the Bottom Might Be In first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.

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Bitcoin Magazine

The Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq Signal Has Flipped Bullish

Tech stocks are selling off, and Bitcoin is holding. Today’s Chart of the Day looks at Bitcoin priced in tech stocks, the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio, which reclaimed its 200-day moving average on September 18 after 235 straight sessions below it and hasn’t closed under it since. Sean Hagan walks through why Bitcoin was higher one year after reclaims like this five of six times with a median gain of roughly 84%, why this cycle’s 62% reset was the shallowest on record, and what the 2021 fake-out looked like by comparison. He also gives his invalidation level and his $100K line in the sand.

Chapters:
0:00 Bitcoin Priced in Tech Stocks: Four Cycle Resets From 87% to 62%
0:37 The Ratio Reclaims Its 200-Day After 235 Sessions Below
1:05 Is Bitcoin Just a Leveraged Tech Bet? What the Critics Are Missing
1:49 Beta Falls to 0.75 and the Leveraged Drawdown Already Happened
2:32 How Much Confidence in a 5-of-6 Hit Rate? 15 Backtest Combinations
3:03 Above the 100, 150 and 200-Day Averages With Puell Multiple Confirming
3:52 The 2021 Fake-Out: Why Mid-Cycle Dips Aren’t Resets
4:56 The Harder Macro Backdrop: Brent at $113 and the 10-Year Near 5%
5:39 Invalidation at $76–77K and the $100K Line in the Sand
6:39 Drawdowns Along the Way and Why the Reset Is Complete

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

This post The Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq Signal Has Flipped Bullish first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.