UK and Germany withdraw embassy staff from Tehran amid tensions. Military action by European countries on Iran by July at 3.5% YES.

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Fed may hike rates twice in 2026, with a 36% chance. Rate hike by September 2026 at 62% YES.

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Asian stocks expected to decline as oil prices surge past $100. Crude oil reaches new all-time high by December 31 at 20% YES.

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Ukraine's Defense Minister resigns amid strategic disputes; France pledges military aid. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 15% YES.

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Iran sent military gear and commanders to Houthi rebels in Yemen. Military action against a Gulf state by July 30 at 44.5% YES.

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Iran intercepted a US Tomahawk missile, escalating tensions. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 60.5% YES.

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Somali pirates seized a Tanzanian-flagged ship off Yemen. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30 at 22.5% YES.

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Iran escalates conflict with attacks on U.S. allies. U.S.-Iran deal with reconstruction funding in 2026 at 29% YES.

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OPEC+ plans to increase oil output despite production shortfalls. Crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 at 13% YES.

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Cruz says Trump will avoid long-term troop deployment in Iran. Ceasefire by August 31 at 65.5% YES.

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IMO condemns Red Sea shipping attacks, raising supply chain concerns. Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure by September 30 at 23% YES.

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US House passes $1.1T defense bill with US-Israel tech cooperation. Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026 at 14.5% YES.

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Alphabet reports a $5.9B cash burn, raising concerns about its market position. Alphabet as the second-largest company by July 31 at 2% YES.

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Iran rapidly rebuilds infrastructure after US and Israeli strikes. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 59% YES.

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Trump approves a 30-year nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, raising proliferation concerns. U.S.-Iran final nuclear deal by August 13, 2026 at 2.9% YES.

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US House votes to halt military actions against Iran. Reconstruction funding in a US-Iran deal by 2026 at 28.5% YES.

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Trump signals potential escalation in military actions against Iran. U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 at 30.5% YES.

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Iran's missile accuracy raises concerns over targeting U.S. troops. Military action against a Gulf state on July 30 at 44.5% YES.

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Strike on Saudi tanker raises oil prices above $100. Crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 at 19.5% YES.

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Iran's Ghalibaf claims sanctions led to soaring oil prices. Crude oil reaches a new all-time high by December 31 at 19.5% YES.

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